Whilst Ihtimal ended up being my Guineas filly and she has won over ten furlongs in Dubai, I would not be touching her in the Oaks as I cannot see her getting home. Everybody seems to be sold on the O’Brien Epsom double but Marvellous was greatly helped at The Curragh by the ground and the form-line through the runner up to the Newmarket Classic looks very suspect. I am not sure that the three year old fillies this year are anything out of the ordinary but the Prix de Diane could be a hotter race than the Epsom Oaks and I do recall reading somewhere (probably the Racing Post) that Shamkala was going to Chantilly to face Prix Saint Alary winner We Are.
Joking aside, it really should be 3/1 the field, you have 4 main contenders, two who will stay, two with stronger form who might not, all 4 open to improvement, trial winners, horses with potential who could bounce back, nothing deserves to be a 2/1 shot. Taghrooda was not cut that short because anyone thought it was a strong race she won, it was the way she done it, her breeding and the potential she has, you can only beat whats in front of you and you only need to look at Marvellous yesterday to see that its unwise to put too much stock in 3yo trial form. Everyone is going 1m4 for the first time and The Oaks is where the form is made, that race will sort them out and the form will be worth looking into for future races. Lets hope the cream rises and the best horse wins.
Beef we used to be good m8s on here until that fateful day at Cheltenham, I think we should put that behind us and call a truce, Bob as well, I know we are always at each other but there are times we have got on well in the past so it can be done, no need to hold grudges.
Boris. 1. I don't hold grudges so please don't accuse me of that. 2. You were the one trying to be a smart man, not me. 3. I'm not bothered about what you say, I don't know you or anything about you and I suspect I've little in common with you. I'm a relatively infrequent punter who has next to no interest in the rubbish racing you occupy yourself with on a daily basis. I don't consider myself to have been 'attacking' you so I don't need to call a truce but if you mean you're stopping with the sarcastic posts like you've just made above, then I'm fine with that too!
Think I have a persecution complex then, typical Celtic fan. Just thought you were being overly against Taghrooda for some reason, obviously that reason is bad judgement and not what I thought I was. Apologies
The grudge thing was more me and Bob, and to be fair grudge is a bit strong a word, its an internet forum and as you say, not many of us really know each other, but I mean little tit for tat insults and stuff like that. I have more than played my part in it but the forum is better off without it.
The reason I'm against Taghrooda, Boris is I simply think she's a godawful price that's all. I'm on Marvellous at 10/1 (each-way due to the price) and would far, far rather be on her at that price than the jolly at 2/1. I think that's very much a false price and I see your views in fact aren't dissimilar to mine with regards that end. The horses she beat do look very, very ordinary in hindsight so I think the recent market fluctuations on her price are reflective of the silly price she was. She's become an uneasy favourite and I suspect that trend will continue until the day. Of course that won't stop her bolting up, if she's the horse they think. With regards Marvellous I actually have very little doubts about her staying and I think the form of her Guineas win is as good, if not better, than anything else in the field. I've watched the run several times and the further she goes the better. Your point about it being a tough race yesterday would be of more concern. Even at the current best price of 6/1 I think she's a very decent bet. To be fair, on the day I can easily envisage Taghrooda offered up at 7/2 whereas O'Brien's filly will be around 4/1 so I'm happy I've got the 'value' people always talk about, though personally I much prefer to have the winner! To be honest, I'm not usually that 'up' in these flat races but since I'm heading over to Epsom for the Derby I've had to have a peek which explains my vociferous opinions
Think that it's between the hamdan fillies . Marvellous doesn't fill me with confidence . Hope tapestry and shamkala turn up as they can run them close at prices
Talking of the Hamdan horses is everyone aware of the Hannigan boys appalling record at Epsom in races of 4+ runners. He’s 1/60 over the past few seasons. Hardly inspiring that little nugget, methinks. I’m still a huge admirer of Momentus. Still no idea if she’s Oaks bound but if connections say ‘let’s go for it’. Get on.
The Irish 1000 Guineas 6th Tested won a Listed event today at Naas, not the strongest race ever seen but that's now 3 wins from 4 races, her only defeat being her 6th in the Guineas behind Marvellous. 10/3 now the top price for Marvellous, the 10/1 looks decent enough but hard to be too confident in fillies' races as we know.
Volume @ 16/1 e/w Was very impressed when she made all and found even more when seriously challenged at Newbury, finishing with her ears pricked. So the extra distance and the more demanding track- she should have no problem with what so ever! She has the breeding to get the distance her mum was half sister to a St Leger 2nd and a winner of 1m7f group 2 race- Her reappearance third at the Craven meeting you can forgive her as she pulled way too hard for her own good in the early stages and the history of the race has thrown up some really class horses. Altho she has abit to find against some of the top in betting onfigures she is constantly improving and a tough little filly and a place shold be the very least she should get as she has won 3 and places 2 out of her 5 horses so always a consistent type!
The race has the potential to see SEA THE STARS make his G1 breakthrough as a sire. Both of his daughters, TAGROODHA and ANIPA, have decent chances and his relation BRACELET (out of his half-sister CHERRY HINTON) could also go well at a big price. The family act well at Epsom: All Too Beautiful - 2nd Oaks Wonder of Wonders (daughter of All Too Beautiful) - 2nd Oaks Black Sam Bellamy - 3rd Coronation Cup Cherry Hinton - 5th Oaks Galileo - 1st Derby Melikah - 3rd Oaks Sea The Stars - 1st Derby
Bracelet runs doesn't she? 25/1 is a very fair price. Take out her last run and she 'd be half the price. I think that's a decent bet.
