On Sunday we have the Irish Derby at the Curragh and it's basically a repeat of the Epsom Derby minus the winner Pour Moi.* Carlton House 13/8* Treasure Beach 3/1 Seville 7/1* Memphis Tennessee 12/1* Roderic O'Connor 12/1* Dunboyne Express 25/1* Notable Graduate 25/1* Best Hello 40/1* The way this race has been priced up baffles me, I just don't get it, why is *Carlton House 13/8 when he has to reverse form with Treasure Beach from Epsom. I remember the last horse SMS sent over for the Irish Derby, Tartan Berear, and he went off at similar odds, yet he didn't have to reverse form with any of them, as only New Approach beat him at Epsom and he wasn't in the line up. Tartan Berear was beaten at the Curragh and I think SMS will go away dissapointed again.* Yes Carlton House had to go a little wide to make his challenge in the Derby, and yes he lost a shoe, but Treasure Beach apeared to have his measure before the shoe came off. I know Treasure Beach had a better trip but Carlton House's trip wasn't as bad as made out, and I'm glad the winner came from further back, as it proved Carlton House was just not good enough at Epsom, and the best horse won. There is just far too much of a price difference, it's crazy, Treasure Beach beat him at Epsom so should be favourite. * Treasure Beach's Chester Vase form got a major boost at Royal Ascot, when Nathaniel, who lost to TB by a neck, bolted up like a very talented horse in the Ascot Derby, and he is now a worthy favourite for the St Leger. You add to that AOBs amazing record in the Irish Derby, he's almost a guarenteed cert to win it every year, and Treasure Beach looks a cracking bet, he beat all this lot in the Derby and is massively overpriced at 3/1, so he is my selection. The other that is overpriced is Memphis Tennessee, he was 4th in the Derby finishing infront of Native Khan and Seville, so I'm not quite sure why he is a bigger price.
Good article again shergs. Again have to agree CH I don't think is good enough to win as was shown at Epsom. And again treasure beach is a bug favourite of mine. Also SMS horses are not inform as shown at ascot But will the queens horse win in Ireland and make history afterall the queen made history herself by visiting ireland for the first time a monarch to visit in ages(dnt know long to be exact) we will have to wait and see. But my money will be on treasure beach.
That's another good point there WF, about Stoutes horses being bang out of form. I think the majority of the Irish public were very impressed with the Queens visit, she behaved very humbly, and as good as apologised for the bad blood between the Uk and Ireland, which was a very nice thing for her to do, particularly as she was apologising for incidents that had happened long before she was even born. Some idiots did protest against her but the majority of Ireland realised how genuine she was, so I think it would go down well in Ireland if the Queen landed the spoils! It cracks me up though at how long some people keep a grudge, I remember watching Boris Becker win wimbledon with a Jewish friend of mine, and he was livid, like a 17yo boy was responsible for events that happened along time before he was born
I have a bit of a soft spot for Treasure Beach ever since I saw him finish about 10l or so behind Frankel last year. He was so unlucky although obviously could never have won and I was delighted when he ran so well in the Derby. But 3/1 doesn't sound like good value to me and I think CH might well reverse the form. Personally I wouldn't touch the race. Totally different course, probably different going.
guys its raining cats and dogs here in Ireland. If it keeps up the Curragh will be like a bog and therefore this could through up an unpredictable result. Might take a chance on Roderic O'Connor - a course winner who has won on soft ground.
Carlton House's run in the Derby was a huge disappointment. On the day the best horse won and Treasure Beach deserved to be 2nd. What we don't know is 1) how much CH's injury took out of him 2) did the fact that a shoe was hanging off impede his gallop. I discount the route taken as Pour Moi did the same. What I don't discount is that he dwelt, which you can't do in a big race. I'm not worried about the going, as CH won on very soft ground at Newbury in October and he seemed to relish it. What I am worried about is his ability to stay a true run race. On Derby day he seemed to barely get the distance, but then again you have to return to points 1 and 2 again. An interesting race!!
Seville for me yes i may be following this horse over a cliff seeing as i backed him for the epsom classic before he even hit a racecourse but they still have high hopes for this horse at Ballydoyle.They were so dissapointed that he didn't win the Dante,They exoected him to you can see this for the way he was backed by the holy trinity that day.If you watch his run at Epsom he was never in the race and was given a very easy easy time by Soumillion basically eased down in the last 3f,By all reports soumillion reported back to Aiden that the undulations of Epsom and the quick ground did not suit him and he was never letting his legs down coming down towards Tattenham Corner.Being by Galileo and Germen bred he will relish the Soft Ground that he will more than likely get on Sunday.
"............and he was never letting his legs down coming down towards Tattenham Corner............." Excuse my ignorance, Famouswise, but what exactly does this mean? Lost his action, perhaps? Nothing unusual in that at Epsom? If the forecast heavy rain is correct, then a proven bog runner is the one to be on. Is there one?
Nigel: Now, that's much better. See, you can do it if you try? I do not like to omit words from a sentence, if you do, that is your business. All totally unimportant to me, as are your rather trite posts. Goodbye and enjoy yourself, I will "bite" no further....................
Filon when i say he didn't let himself down on the ground what i mean is if a horse has a soft ground action ie bended knee and hitting the ground quite hard you will often find when they race on quick ground they find it slightly uncomfortable so they don't put everything into their action ie they are tentaive so they dont hit the ground as hard keeping something back this is what we mean when we say he didn't let himself down on the fast ground.
Interesting race. Fancied Recital in this but was not to be. I would love to see roderic o connor do it but honestly do not think he is going to get the trip. He was all out in the Irish Guineas to my mind and this looks too far. That said, Aidan O brien knows more about it than I do.
Last big race before they have to mix it with the older horses I suppose and at the prices am edging towards giving Seville another chance @ 7/1. Was looked after at Epsom when it was clear the track didn't suit. Hopefully he'll give a better account. Can't fancy Carlton House at 13/8 when Treasure Beach finished ahead of him at Epsom who in turn is 3/1. Roderic O'Connor has only been left in because Rectial is out so maybe he'll be pacemaking leaving Memphis Tennessee to run a more normal race? Just would have thought he'd have been more than Recital's sub if they felt he had a good chance? Certainly wouldn't be considering anything away from AOB!
famouswise: Ah, OK, now I understand. Didn't quite get the terminology you used. The track would not have helped him either? Good point, might be a different horse at The Curragh?
I expect that Carlton House is the favourite for the Irish Derby purely because of all the excuses that Ryan Moore made at Epsom (even if many of them were groundless). The bookies expect punters to pile on to the perceived ‘unlucky loser’. I do not think that losing a plate made any difference to how Carlton House ran and Sir Michael Stoute would not have let the horse take his chance if he thought the fetlock knock would hinder him. I do not think that he proved conclusively that he stayed the mile and a half so whilst I wish Her Majesty good luck, I will not be backing her horse. For the record, The Queen is the only British monarch to ever visit the Irish Republic. When King George V visited, it was still part of the United Kingdom. If it turns up soft at The Curragh on Sunday, I will be giving the race a miss, so Seville will probably bolt up as half the horses I have backed this year have lost and then won at decent odds the next time. I do not think that he handled the course at Epsom and Christophe Soumillon did not give him a hard time.
It cracks me up that every time a well fancied runner doesn't run well at Epsom, it's that they didn't handle the course, it's an all to easy excuse that will be turned out over and over again by the likes of AOB every time one of his hype horse gets stuffed. Seville wasn't good enough, and Treasure Beach proved superior. Does anyone remember Dylan Thomas coming 3rd in the Derby behind Sir Percy, with a rookie jockey onboard at 25/1. The point i'm making is AOB never knows who his best horse is, fair enough Horatio Nelson pulled up, but Septimus didn't, and he was well beaten by his unfancied stablemate, that's the point I'm making with Treasure Beach, don't write him off just because Seville and Recital were more fancied before the Derby, he proved to be a better horse than those 2, and his Chester Vase form is top notch with Nathaniel. Seville is a hype horse and has to reverse form with 5 horses from Epsom, and should be a 33/1 chance looking at his form
King Shergar, I am sure that you could start a fight in an empty room. Who was writing off Treasure Beach just because he was unfancied at Epsom? I cannot find their posting on this thread. It is not just Aidan O’Brien that has trained placed horses in the Derby at long odds that have turned out to be good. What price was subsequent Group 1 winner Terimon when he ran second to Nashwan? Like the vast majority of horses that run in every Derby, Seville could not handle the track’s unique undulations and he was well beaten. Going into the race, the best piece of form available was the Racing Post Trophy and Seville was the highest rated horse in the race so I am not sure how he is a “hype horse”. Personally I would not back Recital in a two horse race with a donkey off Cleethorpes seafront because he has demonstrated a lack of resolve. Doubtless if Treasure Beach is successful you will be the first to logon to tell everyone that he is a great horse and that you cleaned up on the Exchanges laying Seville at 33/1.
QuarterMoonII: "King Shergar, I am sure that you could start a fight in an empty room".................. He certainly could, and certainly does. The lad gets a bit confused sometimes? He's good for a good laugh though, fine comic.
