When did I say it was? I didnt even mention that word in said post. Some people make strange leaps on here. What's unlikely about a newly promoted team losing 5 straight games? I'd be surprised if it didnt happen to all newly promoted teams to the Premier League.
Let's say the odds of us losing all those five were (conservatively) 8/1 pre-Arsenal. So the odds of picking up at least a point were, roughly, 1/8 (89% probability). The chance of winning the lottery is roughly 13,983,815/1 (0.00000715% probability). In other words, City were around 12.5 million times more likely to pick up a point than a ticket winning the lottery. Do you really think that's a fair comparison?
The argument was I was being negative in saying we'd lose 5 straight. I made the lottery comparison not because they were similar odds of happening, but because both statements are, in my eyes, realistic. I imagine most people would expect all newly promoted teams to the EPL to lose 5 games on the trot. I bet Steve Bruce would expect us to lose 5 on the trot at some point. There is nothing negative about saying it whatsoever
A stat I've always liked about the lottery: you are far more likely to die on your trip to the newsagents to buy the ticket than you are to win the jackpot.
I can see us having a gentlemans wink wink agreement with Aston Villa for a sneaky 0-0 boring draw, I can see it suiting both parties
These are the run-ins of the sides around us: VILLA.........Look at those away games..If we get something at VP they could drop. 26/04/2014 A SWANSEA 03/05/2014 H CITY 07/05/2014 A MAN CITY 11/05/2014 A SPURS Fulham..Perhaps the best run in, but those games will not be easy 26/04/2014 H CITY 03/05/2014 A STOKE 11/05/2014 H PALACE West Ham..A loss on Satdee could see them treading water 26/04/2014 A WEST BROM 03/05/2014 H SPURS 11/05/2014 A MAN CITY CARDIFF.....Looks impossible to stay up 26/04/2014 A SUNDERLAND 03/05/2014 A NEWCASTLE 11/05/2014 H CHELSEA SUNDERLAND..If they beat Cardiff...Its ON 26/04/2014 H CARDIFF 03/05/2014 A MAN UTD 07/05/2014 H WEST BROM 11/05/2014 H SWANSEA WBA...They have West Ham on Satdee, a lose to Wet Spam and S'land could see them needed to beat Stoke on the last day. 26/04/2014 H WEST HAM 03/05/2014 A ARSENAL 07/05/2014 A SUNDERLAND 11/05/2014 H STOKE Norwich...Geez talk about staying up the hard way. 26/04/2014 A MAN UTD 03/05/2014 A CHELSEA 11/05/2014 H ARSENAL My prediction for the drop: Fulham, Cardiff, Norwich.. None of those 3 will get 34 pts...
I think were safe already but think we can acrue another four points. Threee against Fulham and a sneaky draw against Villa. All in all been a great season upto now.
Well it's not wrong is it? I didnt say FACT it will definitely happen. Will all the people who post wrong score predictions for this weekend's match vs Fulham come on here and say they were wrong?
The thing that was absurd about that statement was we still had Man Utd away with no inclination that Moyes wouldn't be their manager. That was 3 point all but guaranteed.
