Every time i look at it Rule the World screams to me winner. He got outpaced in the neptune then rallied up the hill. He was beaten by Zaidpour in his 1st proper test since his bad injury. he will definitely stay the trip and i believe the ground will be in his favour too. Call me mad but i wont be surprised to see the front 2 in the betting out of the places.
"Writing in his Betfair column, Nicholls revealed both McCoy and Walsh had been sounded out before the Big Buck’s ride was handed to Twiston-Davies, who has won on five of his 12 rides for the Somerset stable. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/ra...g-Bucks-Sam-Twiston-Davies.html#ixzz2vnUTtKzr
I still think Celestial Halo is worth a go @ 25s - would have won it last year if he hadn't smashed the last and was cruising for most of the race - definite chance if he repeats that less the mistake at the last
1.30 Cheltenham Wonderful Charm 11/2 This is shaping up to be a great contest but I’ve been sitting on a 16/1 docket on Wonderful Charm since last October and he’s still my most likely idea of the winner. Although he’s perhaps gone a far from traditional route given that his 4 chases to date all came at the start of the season, I think there has been an awful lot to be impressed about from Paul Nicholls’ 6 year old who showed great tenacity when conceding the useful yardstick Fox Appeal 6lb on his 2nd start to rally from 3L down jumping the last to win going away. Since then he readily scored in a weak Grade 2 at Newbury before encountering his first defeat over fences at the 4th time of asking when narrowly beaten by Oscar Whisky at Cheltenham over 1f further. Conceding the eventual winner 8lb and having jumped nicely throughout, Wonderful Charm came to the last travelling best but he couldn’t get by Henderson’s charge, who was always holding. However, with a likely stronger pace and 8lb pull at the weights I’d definitely be disappointed if Wonderful Charm couldn’t reverse that form. Felix Yonger leads the Irish charge and having disappointed on his last two starts in testing conditions he’s got a point to prove for all he should relish the likely return to a decent surface. His stablemate Djakadam is an absolutely fascinating contender and a great jumper who could go very well at 10/1 whilst Taquin De Seuil would have played big part in this for me but the ground is against him and I think he’ll find a few too good. Harry Fry’s fascinating Vukovar falls into the “could be anything” category having only had 2 starts in Britain and he bolted up on his 2nd start but given that he’s only a 5 year old and unproven away from testing conditions he’s one I certainly wouldn’t be looking to jump on at 9/1 and hopefully Wonderful Charm gets day 3 off to a flyer. 2.05 Cheltenham Fingal Bay 7/1 It's going to be a big ask for Fingal Bay to land the Pertemps off top weight of 11-12 but off a rating of 148 I think he is still on a very workable mark and I think he could prove a class above this field. Still incredibly unexposed with only 10 starts in his career to date, Fingal Bay left a long lasting impression on debut in a bumper at Exeter in February 2011 when winning by 22L in incredibly easy fashion and, pitched into the deep end on hurdling debut in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices Hurdle, his reputation only grew as he ran out a very comfortable 6L winner. On his 3rd start he overcame a horrific error and the 2nd last to run out a convincing winner of the Grade 2 Neptune Novices Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham before his undoubted career best performance came when beating subsequent Neptune and Arkle winner Simonsig to make bring his career to 4-4 (still the only defeat Simonsig has suffered in his career under Rules) and he made it 5-5 when having to work hard to win a weak Grade 1 at Newbury on New Years Eve 2011. Having missed the 2012 Neptune at Cheltenham through injury, Fingal Bay's first career defeat (and only defeat over hurdles) came at the 2012 Aintree Festival in the Sefton Novices Hurdle over an extended 3 miles as he finished runner up to the stout staying Lovcen after a long protracted battle as the pair pulled 11L clear of the talented Cotton Mill and he lost little in defeat that day. He started out the 2012-13 season looking a very exciting Novice Chaser but his career over the bigger obstacles was abandoned/cut short after a scary round of jumping on his 3rd start saw him crash through a fence's wing and trainer Philip Hobbs announced soon after that he had picked up a minor tendon injury and would be out for the season. He was subsequently off the track for 429 before make his long awaited reappearance at Exeter last month on his handicap debut off 142 in a Pertemps qualifier where I was incredibly impressed with his performance as he beat his stablemate If In Doubt (reopposes here on 1lb better terms) by an always holding 1/2L. He travelled through the race like a dream and, sure to come on an awful lot for the run, I think his 6lb rise to a mark of 148 is very reasonable. If In Doubt, who is challenging Fingal Bay for favouritism, bumped into the very well handicapped Saphir De Rheu on his previous start in the Lanzarote and that rival subsequently beat Yesterday's Coral Cup winner off a 13lb higher mark on his next outing and that form reads very well and I think Fingal Bay is an outstanding each way bet at 7/1 with 5 places paid. Of the remainder, I think Grand Vision 14/1 looks a decently handicapped horse off a mark of 142 and is worth a saver (will be playing him, Fingal Bay & If In Doubt in reverse forecasts/tricasts) but I am very sweet on the chances of Fingal Bay who I think think will take a huge amount of beating. 2.40 Cheltenham Benefficent 4/1 Last years Jewson winner Benefficient's abilities have often been underestimated in my opinion but I think this triple Grade 1 winner (twice over fences) looks a great each way bet to be at 4/1.I can’t put my finger on it but something just doesn’t sit right with me with regards to current market leader Dynaste and he’s one I’ll definitely be opposing. Al Ferof definitely has the talent to win this if looking back to his Paddy Power Chase victory over C+D off 159 back in November 2012 but this season he’s won a 2 horse race and been only ok in defeat in testing conditions over 3 miles subsequently and he definitely comes here with a point to prove – one that I think warrants a bigger price than 9/2. Benefficent was last seen winning the Grade 1 Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown after Christmas and Tony Martin is sure to have his 8 year old in peak condition in his quest to win back to back races at the Cheltenham Festival.
3.20 Cheltenham Annie Power 6/4 Although probably too short for a bet, in my opinion if Annie Power stays she’ll win as I just don’t think Big Bucks looked the same horse on his recent return from over 400 days off the track. The 4 time champion would have definitely won the race if he was the same horse he once was regardless of fitness and if Knockara Beau ran in this year’s contest he’d be beaten out of sight. Added to that, Big Bucks’ may have taken a bitter mental blow with that being his first defeat since 2008 and although 4/1 looks very tempting and could prove the biggest each way steal in a long time I just couldn't back him with contest. All in all I think it’s an incredibly poor renewal of the race outside the top 2. I couldn't have At Fishers Cross at any price and I think he’ll end up being pulled up. I've nearly really warmed to Rule The World and for all the brilliant target trainer Mouse Morris will have him spot on for this I don’t think he’s good enough to win. I would have advised unbeaten More Of That as an each way alternative at 10/1 but I think it’s a definite worry that AP chose At Fishers Cross instead. The 7lb allowance makes it a comprehensive victory for the Mare for me if she stays. 4.00 Cheltenham Tatenen 28/1 Tatenen is a horse I've always held dearly and have backed him to win 3 times at 40/1, 22/1 & 14/1 and he owes me absolutely nothing but he looks back to his best this year and off a mark of 140 and with ground ideal I think he could run a belter for Richard Rowe. Tatenen bounced back with a bang in fine style when scoring in impressive fashion when clearly well handicapped off a mark of 128 on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury to put behind a disappointing season on paper last year (mostly ran over inadequate trips) and I was incredibly impressed with his 1L beaten 2nd to the incredibly well backed Venetia Williams Aachen on his final start in heavy ground that does not suit him in the slightest of his current mark of 140 and returned to a decent surface I definitely think he can outrun his odds. Carrying a lovely racing weight of 10-9, I think he still holds much of his old ability now still a 10 year old and I think he can go really well for Andy Thornton at a really big price. 4.40 Cheltenham Indian Castle 13/2 Unexposed with only 7 starts under Rules, I think Indian Castle has a great chance of winning what looks a very competitive Kim Muir for Donald McCain in a race the trainer always seems to target. I'm wrecked now and won't be going into much detail but I thought his victory at Cheltenham LTO from the progressive Annacotty was quite a comfortable as he idled near the finish having travelled into the race extremely well and I think a 5lb rise to 140 looks very lenient. With the outstanding Derek O'Connor booked for this unexposed and improving 6 year old, I think he looks to have a really good chance in this 23 runner contest and the trainer/owner/jockey combination that was beaten a head in this race last year will be desperate to make amends this year. McCain has twice won this contest including with subsequent Grand National hero Ballabriggs back in 2010 and clearly aims his good horses here and hopefully Indian Castle can round off the day with a winner.
I've had 4 bets on the handicaps: 4pm Grand Vision 12/1 e/w 4pm Act of Kalinisi 33/1 e/w 4.40 Indian Castle 13/2 win 4.40 Night Alliance 25/1 e/w I do love the good Dr and he's already had a placed horse. He has 13 boxes in his stable and loads of talent. He's the best placer of a horse I know of in England compared to the talent of the horses he has in his yard. I don't think that would change because it's the Festival. At big prices he's worth backing.
Well we'll see at 3.30 if it's those taking 6/4 Annie Power or perhaps those taking 4/1 Big Bucks who need mental assessments won't we! Plenty were waiting for Faugheen to get stuffed yesterday at 6/4 but when they win like a 1/6 shot, which HE did, you say the 6/4 was a winner with HUGE value!
Morning all!! Head is starting to hurt a little now but I shall be there again today!! A couple of words about yesterday, Faugheen - Wow!! I really hope he isn't sent over fences next year because I think he is a Champion Hurdle winner in waiting. I see some of you shrewdies had a few nice wins yesterday - well done Dex on solving that RSA puzzle!! An indifferent day for me, betting wise, backed Faugheen, Don Cossack, Arvika Legionnaire (Christ knows why?!), Dawalan and Black Hercules - can't remember who else!! On to today then... Taquin De Seuill 9/1- Managed to give Oscar Whiskey weight and a beating early season so using that as a form line, that is where my money is going (each way). Also, it's about time McCoy got a winner on the board. Top Wood 20/1 - It's the Pipes. In a handicap. In a first time hood. What more could you need?! Each way again. Al Ferof 5/1 - The class act in the field and this could prove to be his ideal distance. Big Bucks 4/1 - Huge, huge, huge price!! I still think this old warrior will take all the beating. Annie Power could be the monster everyone is saying but she isn't a machine. She isn't a machine though, this is her 4th trip over this season and she hasn't proven herself over the distance either, whereas BB has multiple times. I think Nicholls will have him trained to the minute for this and could have a double up by 3:30!! Shangani 18/1 - A great each way price for a trainer (yeah, I would too!!) in fine form recently. Has decent festival form (4th last year) and arrives in peak form having won at Newbury last week. Will do for me. Night Alliance 33/1 - A Dr Newland inmate. Pulled up last night but has winning course form and looked progressive in the autumn. I will be backing each way in the hope he can get back to his previous form. Anyhow, those are my thoughts. Good luck guys and gals!!
Bob... Was just writing my essay out and I see we both fancy Night Alliance!! Surely can't lose now?!
Honestly mate I think the horse is not going to win the race this year and a place is the absolute best he can hope for. Quevega was not the horse of old on Tuesday. Neither was Hurricane Fly. Ground may have been against them on the day but I think you've got to concede that age has got to both of them and although still bloody good race horses they are not the talent of old. That's two horses who are relatively injury free for the past 3 or 4 years. Big bucks is older than them both. He's had an injury for a whole year. His come back run was not the type of performance that warrants him being a 21/10 favourite if you took Annie Power out. He's now priced up on what he did 2 years ago. That's an eternity. The only thing I can see going for him is the ground because i imagine it's going to be good by 3.20. He should be okay on good ground. At Fishers Cross loves soft/heavy ground. Reve De Sivola loves soft as well. That's two horses you can rule out imho based on going. Celestial Halo is 10 so if you agree HF and Quevega both struggled due to age then you have to rule him out as well and he won't love this ground. I don't know about Rule The World. He'll probably be fine on it. It was good/soft last year and he ran well in 2nd but the only time he's run proper good he ended up injured. More of That has performed well on good ground LTO and his form took a boost with Twelve Roses rather unexpected but stellar run against Faugheen yesterday. He's a player if he stays. Zarkandar should be okay on the ground. Annie Power should be fine on good. Based on all that do you want still make Big Bucks a 21/10 favourite without Annie Power? I don't.
It would be great considering the ammunition the yard has at its disposal. I also agree that Big Bucks may be passed it now and he has to give the wondermare half a stone so this may be a step too far. I can't desert him though (heart ruling head) so stakes will be kept to a minimum. Christ, we agree on a couple of things - the apocalypse is incoming!! Ha ha!!
