If you took each bet in isolation, then you could argue that price is a minor consideration. But if you bet frequently, then value is everything in punting. No point having a 50% strike rate if all your bets are odds-on. It doesn't matter how knowledgable you are, if the numbers are against you then long term you will lose money.
Does anyone think Captain Chris has a chance in this? Someone posted on here earlier that he is the wild card and I reckon that s a good shout!. He has won a Novice hurdle at Cheltenham and an Arkle. OK its well accepted he goes better right handed but surely he has a chance of finishing in the first 3 if not winning. He appears to be in the form of his life and I recall Dickie Johnson saying he always regarded the horse as a Gold Cup horse and he had the potential to win one. That s pretty high praise from the jockey If Johnson can get him tucked up against the rail with horses on his outside this may help with his jumping. What are peoples opinion ?
First things first: I bloody love Captain Chris. If he can string together a round of jumps that doesn't result in him flying wildly out to the right...... then I think he's in with a chance. Personally I think that if he jumps well then he can't be out of the first 4 (SC, BW, LI) and definitely has the talent to run very well. I can't see him being better than all three of those however so I don't think he's winning - all three are more reliable than he is, so on that basis the likelihood of him being better than all three on the day is low. Definitely could place though.
The thing is Danish with so many jumps to take you just feel he will jump out to the right on too many which will cost him. The fact he's won an Arkle though is something that sticks in my mind! I'll probably leave him alone ... too many doubts for me and I think they will really ready him for Punchestown. I am not sure who I will back in this to be honest. I was a Sir Des Champs fan but he's long since been a non runner in this. I look at the Philip Fenton beast and he could well be a good thing. Not convinced on Conti and Bobs Worth is the obvious one but possibly there is something to take him on with. I am looking at the likes of Rocky Creek and CLoudy Too at present. And if Teaforthree runs in this what could he do I wonder? Form at the festival being a winner over 4 miles!
I dont think Captain Chris will stay well enough, be more concerned about that than the left handed issue.
Teaforthree goes in the Gold Cup with AP on board then....what do the forumites think of that then? This big burly horse takes a few rides to get near his best and an each way squeak? Will certainly stay the trip for sure and he has previous festival form too...
I'm really looking for a horse that will appreciate decent ground here .................... can't help thinking Captain Chris might like it ................. won the Arkle on good.
You would have to doubt it with his tendency to jump out to the right but he does go well on good ground and has previously won an Arkle. You just cant ignore that. Last Instalment wont run in my view....
Katenko?? Does he definitely run?? Wind the clock back to Dec/Jan 2013 he was seen as a lively outsider for this prior to being struck down by colic... cant forget him tanking along in the hennessy before he fell.. he was looking like he was gonna be involved in the finish before that.
whatever little chance Harry Topper may have had has gone with every passing dry day--perhaps its for the best...
