2014 William Hill Supreme Novices Hurdle

Ive backed Moyle Park earlier in the season but that looks a write-off at this stage.

Western Boy 20/1 is the one for me now, won one of the strongest maidens run in Ireland this season and stepped up on that when 2nd to the fav in some places Vautour, arguably should have won that day and is crying out for good ground. The Delloite looks like it could be a hot race with The Tullow Tank and maybe Faugheen amongst others, likely to be run on soft ground and if Western Boy runs I would only be looking for him to a run a good race, im not worried if he doesnt win against those at that trip on that ground. I like the Tullow Tank but they say he will only run in the Supreme if the ground is soft, Josses Hill is a player too I think, even though I underrated him on that Newbury maiden win, Irving is there as well but I really like the look of Western Boy and I think he is perfect for the race.

 

Had a few minutes to assess Willies novice entries last nighy and at antepost one stands out:


Vaseur Lido


As he is Gigginstown, he ought to be nailed on for a place in the Supreme lineup which is more than you can say for all these Ricci runners. He has loads of pace and does it so easily. Room for improvement on his jumping but the quicker pace will really suit.

Paul Townend is very taken.

 

Vautour 10/1 Some were underwhelmed by his win the last day, I wasn't. It's easy to be disappointed in long odds on horses when they don't win half the track but Mullins horses generally are priced falsely. The second that day is probably more decent than originally thought. Loved the win Vautour battled back the last day and sometimes horses showing they can win 'ugly' is a good asset to have heading to Cheltenham.

Hugely open race, the market will take shape next week. Paul Nicholls' Irving contesting the Betfair on Saturday then Vautour against the current market leader The Tullow Tank on Irish Hennesey card on Sunday.

 

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/9141392/irish-likely-to-reign-supreme

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/9141392/irish-likely-to-reign-supreme

Interesting chat about Vautour- in an interview they suggest he might be more of a Neptune horse. The manner of his victor suggests that he would get the trip.

So hard to know because we dont know where Faugheen goes.

 

I know one person who will be hoping Vautour runs in the Neptune.

"28 Sep 2013

I don't do this very often and it's highly likely I've got carried away by a big price here. I've heard good things of this Vautour joining the Willie Mullins yard this year, although admittedly never having seen him run I'm going in blind on this one. Robin Des Champs horses often grow with age, but the 66/1 I was offered by Laddies for this French import to win the Neptune had me diving towards to the phone. They went 100/1 about him for the Supreme as well, but I left that alone as his profile reads as a more likely Neptune type. I'm happy to take the chance on him based on the buzz he's created.

Vautour Neptune Novice Hurdle, £25e/w@66/1 with Ladbrokes(1/4 first 3)"

I think he is almost certain to run in the Supreme for the simple reason that Faugheen is stonecold nailed on to run in the Neptune, I also think Western Boy will beat him on good ground.

Would have to be soft for me to consider Vaseur Lido.

 

Who's that Boris?

 

Just a post I came across on a forum, dont know the guy, I would be sick just now tho if it was me.

 

Hard to know for certain where these Ricci creatures go all right. I've been trying to avoid ante-post this year such are the perils of unknown targets for these novice horses but I've dabbled on a few of the most uncertain ones i.e. Mr Mullins'

I hope and think though I'm right that Vautour goes to the Supremes and hopefully the 10/1 looks decent on the day. I think Irving is a flat track bully on the evidence I've seen. He looks certain to go well at Newbury on Saturday with conditions and track to suit. He probably has the potential to tighten the most, until Sunday at least, should Vautour (or even Faugheen) face of with The Tullow Tank who better judges than me rate as the best of the Irish contingent.

It's an interesting Supreme, and may well turn out a higher quality renewal than we probably think it is at this stage.

 

Vautour, Valseur Lido and Tullow Tank have all been priced up for Sundays Deloitte Novice Hurdle.

Faugheen is rumoured to be headed straight to the festival.


Outside of those three Irish horses mentioned, is there anything that looks remotely scary in the Supreme? I think the Irish could dominate it this year unless West Wizard comes back well.

Irving is the best looking hope, Josses Hill surely not a Supreme winner having been narrowly edged by Royal Boy, Moyle Park looking unlikely to go at this stage.

I think the 16/1 on VALSEUR LIDO looks potential value. That aside though, not sure what else.

 

Close the thread VAUTOUR!

 

I see Mullins has declared that Vautour and Wicklow brave are his top two for the supreme.! So what of Moyle Park ?? This was my ante post at 20s a few weeks back but haven't heard it mentioned recently!

Anyone shed any light??

 

Willie Mullins has confirmed that alongside WICKLOW BRAVE and VAUTOUR, VALSEUR LIDO is intended to run for Gigginstown house stud.

I am very excited about seeing this one upped in class.

 

The Supreme is shaped like a market where there is some value to be extracted. Vautour 3/1 is a fav by a clear 5 points- with Irving 8/1 next in the market. His rider, Nick Schofield, has been very glowing about him, describing him to Paul Nicholls as 'concorde'. He seems to have a fair engine and has been kept fresh for spring ground. After those two, the market opens right up, with Josses Hill (12/1) hardly setting the world alight when edged out by Royal Boy and was dismantled by Faugheen in Ireland last season. Wicklow Brave was very impressive LTO and warrants respect, but being flat-bred I am not sure it is what he wants. I also think Lieutenant Colonel ran nowhere near form that day after pulling like a train, and Western Boy shaped like he would get a lot closer when he met Wicklow Brave earlier in the season. VALSEUR LIDO 16/1 looks a big price because he looks to have genuine speed and an engine. His hurdling will need to improve but a better pace will suit him having made his own running so far in Ireland so I like him.

Vautour had a bit too much tactical edge for the big horse Tullow Tank and I think he will have a bigger race on his hands than the market suggests.

 

Agree Vautour is now an awful price, considering he was available at 6/1 immediately post-race last Sunday but has been halved since then. No doubt there'll be far better prices floating around on the day, as with all the main races. I know it seems insane to be overly bullish on him on what we've seen but I'd nearly say I just can't see him beat (prepares egg on face moment Tuesday 11 March!).

He's definitely the best of the Irish, I know MOG loves Western Boy and fancies a turn around in form but I can't buy into that at all. I thought Vautour raced pretty keenly and had every excuse to fall in a hole when he was joined at the last by Western Boy, but the way Vautour kicked clear on the run in suggests there was plenty left in the locker (it wasn't massively dissimilar to HF v OC in the Irish Champion if you haven't seen it). His defeat of The Tullow Tank maybe isn't as great as it originally looked considering that one is heading Neptune but at no point did Ruby use the whip on Vautour and if you stopped the race 2 furlongs sooner (the Supremes distance) the race was over as a contest. Irving looks a big threat on paper, trained by Paul Nicholls and unbeaten since joining the yard. He travels supremely well and looks to have plenty of toe. I'm somewhat concerned by the proximity of Prince Siegfried when he fell at the last in the Ascot race Irving won the last day. He looks such a pacy horse, I wonder what he'll find up the hill? We've seen plenty of 'bridle' horses fail in this race including the Tent, Darlan, Cue Card, even Sprinter Sacre (who is not a bridle horse obviously but was an undeveloped teenage at the time).

I love the blend of speed and stamina Vautour brings into this race, and the way he jumps. I can see a real end to end gallop playing to his considerable strengths and him staying on up the hill to win the opener in clinical fashion.

 

Totally agree Beefy, was really taken by Vautour's win over the Tullow Tank, wasn't expecting it to be that clinical, and whilst the value may have gone for me, on the form I have seen between those towards the head of the betting he deserves to be favourite. I've backed Irving antepost at 10s each way, as I have also been impressed by the way he travels and turn of foot, but he's not yet delivered the same level of performance that Vautour did last time out.

Think I will hedge my bets on the day and have a saver on Vautour if you can get between 4 and 5/1, but with it being an Irish horse in the opening race, on the opening day with Ruby the genius on board, I can see it going off at very skinny odds.

 

Vatour and Irvine for the Supreme for me , Can't see anything else going close

 

I see Vautour going off about 13/8 7/4 on the day and after last yr Paddys will keep it on side