Don't you think he is an extraordinary horse though Boris? 19 Grade 1s spanning more than 5 years. Surely he is up there with Hatton's Grace and Sea Pigeon, in fact with any other Champion Hurdler in the history of racing? BTW my last post was not aimed just at you, I realise you didn't say all of those things, just think there's quite a lot of crap being spouted in the media at the moment
Kirbensis is the only horse to ever win the Fighting Fifth, Christmas Hurde and Champion Hurdle in the same season so My Tent has his work cut out. Finishing 2nd at Kempton statistically gives TNO a better chance of winning the Champion Hurdle, My Tent was obviously perfectly suited to the test at Kempton whereas TNO is more suited to the test that awaits in March, he still would have won if he jumped the last tho. To my eye, the Kempton race is by a country mile the strongest 2 mile race ive seen this season, have not been impressed by the Irish in the slightest and I dont think any of those 3 would have got within 5 lengths of the TNO and My Tent at Kempton. I am always keen to side with Irish over the English, but I wont just for the sake of it. I have never been as confident about a jump race in my life.
Hes the best 2 miler ive seen Oddy, Istabraq was before I got into racing. As ive said, im not one of his knockers who has always been looking to oppose him, from the day he beat Go Native as a novice until the TNO's last run as a novice there has not been a horse I would back to beat Hurricane Fly 2 miles over hurdles. Simple as that. Last years Champion Hurdle told me he was not quite the same horse and everything ive seen this season has backed that up, despite what the trainer is saying. Listening to trainers is not good business.
The latest from Dan's Horse Racing Blog. Interesting read, and from a personal point of view, I'm glad someone else thinks Our Conor isn't a lost cause! ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ In the last month or so we have seen a number of significant hurdles races involving the key protagonists in what is widely seen as a vintage Champion Hurdle. Here is a race-by-race breakdown of what my figures say these horses have achieved, and what this says about their changes at Cheltenham in March. 26th Dec: Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle, Kempton My Tent Or Yours 166 The New One 166+ At the time, these were the two best performances by any hurdlers in Britain or Ireland this season; both horses came into the race as Grade 1 winners but both ran a career-best here. As a slowly-run affair on a flat track, the race was set up perfectly to maximize the effectiveness of My Tent Or Yours’ outstanding turn of foot. It also showed that he finds for pressure, although he only had to come with one run. Nonethelesss, I find it hard to imagine him bettering this form, especially as The New One may still have won had he not made a mistake at the last. This was the second consecutive race in which the Twiston-Davies horse made a mistake at the final flight; he has no chance of winning the Champion Hurdle if he does that again at Cheltenham. It is very easy to draw parallels between The New One here and Rock On Ruby in the 2011 renewal of this race, who also fluffed the last but still ran a career-best in defeat to a speed horse. Both promised to improve for a stronger pace at a stiffer track, but Rock On Ruby was 12-1 for the Champion Hurdle after defeat at Kempton, whilst The New One is just 7-2 and there are now concerns about his jumping. 29th Dec: Grade 1 Ryanair Hurdle, Leopardstown Hurricane Fly 163+ Jezki 160+ Our Conor 154+ Hurricane Fly took on representatives of the excellent crop of second-season hurdlers for the first time, and they couldn’t get near him. Astonishingly, this was his 18th Grade 1 victory, and his 15th victory in 16 races in single-figure fields. He also became the first horse to defeat Jezki in either an Irish Grade 1 or a single-figure field, whilst that pair became the first horses to finish ahead of Our Conor over hurdles. The bare form of this race is not particularly impressive, and a little way off Champion Hurdle standard, but there are reasons why all three horses should improve on this. Willie Mullins claimed there should be 5lb more to come from The Fly with improved fitness, whilst Ruby Walsh said he idled having taken command after the last. Jezki was caught in a pocket in the home straight, so he can get closer to the reigning Champion Hurdler with a clear run. Meanwhile, this was Our Conor’s first hurdles run since his Triumph win in March, so it as understandable that he faded in the straight as if short of full fitness. 1st Jan: Dornan Engineering Hurdle, Cheltenham (2m4.5f) Annie Power 162+ Zarkandar 161 Effectively a re-match of November’s Coral Hurdle at Ascot, but over a furlong further and on heavy ground; Annie Power confirmed that form and also produced a career-best form-figure. Having demonstrated pure 2m speed last season when beating subsequent 2m Grade 1 winners Defy Logic and The Tullow Tank, she showed strong stamina here – the winning time was only 16 seconds quicker than the standard time for the 3m of the World Hurdle course. Taking into account the 7lbs she will receive when taking on geldings in Grade 1s, Annie Power became my highest-rated hurdler of the season with this performance, and there are no signs of her progress stopping. 25th Jan: Grade 2 Doncaster Mares Hurdle (2m) Annie Power 162+ Doyly Carte 139 Rather than staying in Ireland to run in the 3m Galmoy Hurdle or even running in the more valuable Cleeve Hurdle on the same day at Cheltenham, connections dropped Annie Power back to 2m for the first time in four starts; this is the clearest indication so far that they intend to run her in the Champion Hurdle, rather than the World Hurdle. The mare responded in kind by giving the clearest indication this season that she is well-suited to the task of the Champion Hurdle, showing raw 2-mile speed here and winning with plenty in hand. Meanwhile, I am very interested in Doyly Carte at 20-1 each way for the Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival; she shapes as if she will improve for a step up to 2m4f, and this form is only 9L and 1L off Quevega’s last two winning performances in that race, whilst the great mare is now a 10yo. 26th Jan: Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown Hurricane Fly 164 Captain Cee Bee 161 Jezki 160.5 Our Conor 160 Hurricane Fly won his ninth Grade 1 in a row and his FIFTEENTH in a row in Ireland. There is nothing I can say about his career that hasn’t been said before - but I will say that this form is not good enough to win this year’s Champion Hurdle. With Our Conor receiving 2lbs as a 5yo here, the second-best horse in the race was a 13yo Captain Cee Bee running his best race since winning the Supreme nearly six years ago! Add this to the fact that all four runners were covered by just 3 1/4L at the line, and a low view has to be taken of this form. This means that Hurricane Fly has run at least 10lb below his peak rating on all three starts this season, and at least 5lb below it on four of his last five starts. Nothing is beyond a horse who has achieved what he has achieved, but prices of 100-30 overrate The Fly’s chances of winning a third Champion Hurdle. Our Conor has also failed to match his Triumph form on both starts this season, but he is half the age of The Fly and has had a quarter of the Champion’s hurdle starts; as such, he is far more likely to improve on this form at Cheltenham. Since the standard of the Triumph has improved due to the creation of the Fred Winter handicap, each Triumph winner has improved on their peak 4yo run by at least 4lbs in their 5yo season, with 11lbs being the median degree of improvement. Having run to 162+ in the Triumph, Our Conor still has a strong chance of going close in the Champion Hurdle. Indeed, if he makes that 11lbs of improvement, it is going to take a truly outstanding performance to stop him. Jezki seems to have plateaued at the level his novice speed-figures hinted he might; his four open-company form figures now read 157, 160, 160+ and 160.5. He hasn’t enjoyed Cheltenham on either of his previous appearances there, so he seems a rather unlikely Champion Hurdler at this stage. Summary: Weight-adjusted ratings for Champion Hurdle contenders Annie Power 169p The New One 166+ My Tent Or Yours 166 Hurricane Fly 164 Our Conor 162+ Jezki 160.5 Un De Sceaux 157P Melodic Rendezvous 151+ Annie Power has genuine 2m speed, but her performance at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day showed her to be the strongest stayer in this field as well. At the weights, she has demonstrated the most ability in the field and is also open to the most progress, having only had 4 runs at the trip. I am very pleased to have taken the fancy prices (see here) but she still rates a great bet at 7-1 NRNB (Paddy Power). If you fancy a second string to your bow, the other value bet in the Champion Hurdle market is Our Conor at 6-1 (StanJames).
Same old "Hurricane Fly's beaten nowt" nonsense The Ryanair and Irish Champion Hurdle were slowly run tactical affairs on testing ground, they are hardly going to throw up 30 length winning margins. The Christmas Hurdle 3rd, Sametegal, hardly advertised the form at Musselburgh the other day did he? 150 horse my arse. On a line through Jumps Road Melodic Rendezvous and The New One should just about dead-heat. You can put any spin you want on the Champion Hurdle form, that's why the race is so fascinating.
Think you've got it spot on Oddy although my spin wth my eyes goes something like this: MTOY - Wasn't ovely impressed with his Cheltenham effort last year and can see the hill doing for him again Our Conor - Visually superb at Cheltenham last year - would need the venue to revitalise him again as he certainly hasn't reached that form this year. Jezki - A good couple of pounds behind MTOY Annie - Is she a 2 1/2 mile specialist? You just think it would take a 2 mile specialist to win this renewal, or maybe that's just hope. TNO - Probably the least arguments against him - but does have STD on board The Fly - 10 year olds are not meant to win renewals like these, are they? - We probably think that this is as good a field as he's faced and shouldn't conceivably win at his age, but apart from his age, any real flaws? And does have ruby! Against my better nature I'm going with Our Conor as we all know all too well what Cheltenham does to horses - He was sensational last year and I don't care if it was against trees, he was sensational. A repeat of that run puts him right there, but then again ......
If Annie runs in this race, the only way she will get beaten is if the ground isn't soft enough. With that in mind I suspect, if the ground isn't soft enough, she won't run. With that in mind, if she runs, she wins. Hadn't realised it was so easy. What price NRNB?
I like that summing up Danishqp..... but whilst I reckon Our Conor will probably run his best race of the season by far at Cheltenham I am going to take My Tent or Yours to win this. Hoping for good to soft ground on day 1 with a bit of warm march sunshine and I just think My Tent or Yours will burn up the hill this year and probably just shade it by a small margin... The horse has clearly matured, developed and looks like he settles better in his races this term too. I think that will be a major factor. He was talked about as a Champion Hurdler possible last season and it will be fitting also if he does win bearing in mind the circumstances surrounding the loss of Darlan last season.
Next declaration stage today and just 11 remain entered: Hurricane Fly The New One MTOY Our Conor Annie Power Jezki Un De Sceaux Melodic Rendezvous Ptit Zig Thousand Stars Grumeti
Montbazon taken out and will now be aimed at the ‘County Hurdle’. Alan King says he was pleased with the ‘hope of the county’ at the weekend as he travelled beautifully for three-quarters of the race before he was, unsurprisingly, claimed by tiredness and being off for so long. The Thornton chap wasn’t hard on him once he started to weaken. Should come on a huge amount for the run and 33’s is available re the County.
Interesting. Where is this Twiston-Davies pacemaker? This could end up a right old tactical boilover if they aren't carreful.
Also from McCoys comments the other day they'll have Jezki front running, so between UDS and Jezki I think there's little danger of a slow pace.
Un De Sceaux will do whatever Willie Mullins wants him to do for Hurricane Fly. Yes he is a front-runner but not necessarily guaranteeing a breakneck pace You would imagine there would be a point where they slow it down on him to get a breather in. Hope he goes at a serious pace but I am nowhere near convinced that will be the case. Ruby Walsh came out immediately after NTD mentioned a pacemaker for TNO and said 'with UDS i doubt a pacemaker will be needed' and I think he was trying to talk them out of it. If I was the opposition, I would be tempted to make it a test like 2012 because that was the one time Hurricane struggled. These days though, stamina might be more his strength so who knows. The softer the ground is by the way, the better Hurricanes chances, so he is bang in with a chance with this weather!
The softer the better for The New One too though being as he's not likely to win a sprint against HF or the Tent. Softer ground makes it more stamina sapping which is where, I feel The New One's real strength lies. I feel the only one that would be inconvenienced by heavy is My Tent or Yours as I feel he's the most doubtful 'stayer' out of the top order. However as we know predicting anything other than good/soft on Day One is usually off target! The track drains so quickly a cool, dry March week should have it fairly decent, as hard as it may be to imagine a cool, dry week at the present! I think whoever is on Un de Sceaux may have a job settling him based on Ruby's comments thus far! Likes to start off fast then try and go faster after a mile by the sounds of it! I also guess that if horses are scared of loosing out in a sprint they can always set out to make all like we've seen at Leopardstown at the weekend or in last year's Supreme. If the pace is too slow, you set you're own gallop, no excuses!
Race of the decade if everything turns up. I can see there being a better pace than TNO has chased this season and that will improve his chances, I also wonder if they are going to ride Our Connor with more early pace, much like his Triumph win. They have to make it a stamina test to beat HF, and I think they will do just that, and that they will break him.
If it is testing, it may suit The Fly but surely this would make it more likely that Annie would run. If that's the case, with all these horses likely to set a strong gallop, it could be Annie staying on best up the hill.
Huh? Multiple Grade 1 winner over 2m4f on soft / heavy going .................. they are more likely to break themselves
Multiple? I only see the Hatton Grace over that trip. He struggled behind ROR when they went hard (and hit a flat spot) and whilst staying he couldn't put his speed to good use.
