Al Ferof has been SCRATCHED from the race - sorry Toppy http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/9161321/al-ferof-sidesteps-gold-run Pricewise has done his 1 point of dough
Disappointing. He and Cue Card were the fascinating angles for me because they add cruising speed. I will cheer on Last Instalment for the excellent Philip Fenton
Can anyone put forward a compelling argument for any horse to beat Bobs Worth, (a) assuming the going is testing? (b) assuming the going is not testing?
I think the 2 dangers to him are Silviniaco Conti and Last Instalment. Cue Card WILL NOT STAY, First Lieutenant has been beaten too often by the main protagonists to think he could win and I think after that you are into the 2nd tier like Harry Topper and The Giant Bolster - I would rate Harry Topper the best chance of those and he could nab a place, especially if it's testing.
I can see it now- Cue Card cruising round the final bend- then go over the second last- tizzard goes for the stick, finds nothing and his tank just empty like there was hole in a petrol tank it and end up being last
And he's ranting like mad about the decision in today's 'Weekender'. Says anyone who saw Al Ferof win the 2012 ‘Paddy Power’, over 20.5 furlongs, will instantly realise he stays 3 miles+ with ease as he showed no signs of stopping that day on soft ground. Puts Al Ferof’s poor performance at the weekend down to not being fit enough and him hating the extremely heavy going. He reckons the distance wasn’t a factor at all. Pricewise is not happy at all and really ticks off Mr Nicholls for scratching him.
I thought it was weird Al Ferof ran on the weekend as there was an article on the Sky Sports website Tues or Weds last week, stating ' Al Ferof was unlikely to run if the ground was testing'.. it couldnt have been more testing on the weekend so it was all very odd if you ask me!
(a) Nope. In my opinion over the Gold Cup trip at Cheltenham on soft ground Bobs Worth has the rest of them comfortably in hand. (b) I think on good ground there is the possibility that one or more of the likes of Cue Card, Last Installment and Silviniaco Conti may have it in them to sustain such a strong pace that Bobs Worth struggles to catch them. I have little doubt that if this is the case he will be making up ground in the last furlong or two. The Feltham, Reynoldstown and Betfair are the only losses of his jumping career and as memory serves me all three were a good strong gallop and in none of them was Bobs Worth loosing ground at the last. In all three cases he was arguably a fair bit below form and he is clearly at his very best at Cheltenham but I think it's possible. Still the most likely winner in either scenario for me, and I find the idea that he might perform below his best extremely unlikely. I think he's the one to beat and it'll take a very good performance to do so.
Bobs Worth will struggle with anything that shows tactical speed. Cue Card is the real key to this race for me. Whatever can follow him and kick for home might win this (hence my love for Al Ferof). Bobs Worth IMO was a little fortunate to be allowed back into last years race from so far back (although he ran on like a train so no real complaints) but I think he is beatable, if the race pans out the right sort of way to do so.
Tactical speed is nothing without stamina! Some people thought Sir Des Champs should've kicked on last year and put the race to bed, my view is if he'd have attempted that the result would've been the same, he walked accross the line a very very tired horse. Barry said in his ante post comments that he thought Bobs Worth got slightly out paced at one point was because of the testing ground, it's hardly like he was tailed off. Bobs Worth is unbeaten at Cheltenham, unbeaten when in front, is a safe economical jumper and has all the ticks in the boxes. SC must be seen as the main danger as appeared to be going well enough when falling last year but he still has it to prove. Cue Card will of course go from the front and my view is like many others, he will hit the wall 2 out and I can see no other threat that could run the finish out of Bobs Worth whilst still having anything left in it's own tank. Last Installment jumped beautifully last time out but un raced at Cheltenham and also out of Ireland has too many questions marks against a proven Champion. I know where my money will be going!
Surely they won't go from the front on Cue Card. They have to ride him to get the trip and the only place they should produce him is at the last. I think they went too hard in the King George, and thats why he didn't get home. I can't have him winning the GC, but I wouldn't expect him to trailblaze either.
Agreed Nass, Cue Card needs to try and be settled for the opening mile and then they shoyld gradually let him increase tempo as the race develops
I agree that he should be held up to have any chance, however, in his last 6 races, since his 1st King George defeat he has been put straight to the front as they believe this settles him more. I can't see them changing tactics now.
