Cardiff V Aston Villa Cardiff V Hull Tottenham V Cardiff Cardiff V Fulham Everton V Cardiff Cardiff V Liverpool West Brom V Cardiff Cardiff V Crystal Palace Southampton V Cardiff Cardiff V Stoke Sunderland V Cardiff Newcastle V Cardiff Cardiff V Chelsea Ok, I haven't got desperate enough yet to start trying to work out other peoples run in's but this is ours. I've highlighted the games we all know we need to target to get points that will hopefully keep us up. 21 points available from our mini league. I think you'd need to have a drug induced level of optimism to believe we'll get anywhere near 21 from there. I think 15 is a realistic upper target with 12 being the absolute minimum to give us any chance at all of playing PL football next season. What that number says is we need wins, draws will not get us there as we'll certainly lose at least one of those matches. If we end up nearer 12 that will leave us about 6 points short of survival Newcastle, Southampton away and perhaps Liverpool at home could see us win some 'bonus' points. Maybe Chelsea will have won the league and might be feeling slack on the last day but the last team that hoped that ended up on the wrong end of 7 and was relegated. I think the only other get out of jail card is 3 other teams having a terrible time in all the head to heads that are coming up and setting the bar very low but I can't see us staying up with less than 36 points and I think we'll be very lucky to get away with a total that low. Sorry if this rambling post full of numbers isn't of interest, just thought I'd try a bit of football after some of the **** (imo) threads we've had last couple of days.
To give a bit more scope I think the Newcastle game can be targetted as well. Their form is plummeting, they have lost their best player and can't use the cash received to bolster the side until the summer, their off field management apart frm Pardew (who is left trying to shovel melted butter back up a pig's arse with a needle) is in disarray. They are pretty well safe from relegation which may breed some complacency and we know how to win there having already done so. However, if our present trend continues we could be dead and burried by then. As for the other games, Everton, Spurs, Liverpool and Chelski, no worries. Seriously though, apart from Fulham and West Brom, all the other bottom sides have found some form to push them up the league. If we are going to survive we need to start doing that - commencing TONIGHT!!!!
I think we should be looking for 17+ points and need to win our games against Villa, Hull, Fulham, WBA, CP & Stoke. If we get a run going we might pinch a point from Everton or Liverpool. I still think we can and will do it.
I just quickly looked at how many 'mini league' (Anyone below Southampton) games the others at the bottom had left. I've put the number of those games that are at home in brackets Stoke 8 (4) West Brom 8 (4) Norwich 7 (3) followed by the run in from hell West Ham 6 (3) Sunderland 6 (5) Palace 5 (1) which I thought was interesting.......
Those five of our seven home games (starting tonight) against fellow drop contenders must be won. If we don't we'll have to rely on other teams failing because it'll be out of our hands. Forget the other two against Liverpool and Chelsea - anything from those will be a bonus and a surprise. The away games that we must target are obviously those against Brom and Sunderland as much as to deny them points as to gain any ourselves. I think we should target 20 points from the 39 possible to allow us some slack and the inevitable loss or draw in games we should in theory have won. 40+ points are still possible, but I'd settle for 38 right now - I think that'll be enough for 17th spot at least. The other thing that worries me is the extent of our negative goal difference. We need to reduce that figure as it could prove crucial come May - we NEED goals right now.
Very true Bluey, though I feel that if we were able to stick some in consistently, it would greatly assist us at the other end by putting the opposition on the back foot rather than inviting them to a shooting party every game. We need to make other teams scared of our goal scoring ability and not allow them to think that we can't.
This is the key to sorting out our form. However bad we are going forward if we continue to concede 2 goals a game or more we'll be in the championship next season.
To be fair, he hasn't scored a goal all season I'm quite sure we have a decent run in compared to the other teams around us, especially Norwich: Liverpool (H), Man U (A), Chelsea (A), Asenal (H). Ouch!
I'm just hoping we can be more of a threat tonight when we attack. Our lack of goals must give the other teams confidence when they come to play us. They pretty much know if they grab a goal we are unlikely to equalize and that's a problem. The other worry is, and I don't know if they are just not fit enough for a full 90 mins or the tactics resort us to it. But if we do have a lead we seem to spent the last 20 minutes with our backs to the wall inviting them to come shoot. Marsh is a damn good keeper, but when they just take shot after shot you know he isn't going to keep them all out. Actually wonder if it's worth jus playing all the Norwegians he signed from the start, they know his way of playing inside out, maybe the rest of the team will respond and we can maybe grab a few points.
I think that's quite optimistic and still leaves us scrapping to stay up. It shows the difference a couple of goals will make, turn 2 of those draws into wins and we're comfortable. If KTC had put the ball into the stand v Sunderland or on the flip side if Bassong had buried that header....... I think that'll be the margin we either succeed or fail by, in other words a very very narrow one!!
