The Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown yesterday saw Last Instalment jump like a stag from the front and running out a convincing winner, albeit on heavy ground (although it didn't look too testing on the TV). Philip Fenton's charge is now a best-priced 10/1 with the market shaping up as follows (Ladbrokes prices, just for a change): Bobs Worth 2 Silviniaco Conti 7/2 Cue Card 7 Last Instalment 10 First Lieutenant, Al Ferof 16 Harry Topper, Dynaste 20 Boston Bob, The Giant Bolster 25 33/1 Bar Connections of Last Instalment say they would want testing ground at Cheltenham, but he did win the Grade 1 Fort Leney Novices Chase by 6 lengths from First Lieutenant on good ground. However, his subsequent tendon injuries may have resulted from running on ground with too little give for him so clearly connections will be keeping a close eye on the weather over the next 5 weeks. But Last Instalment's emergence as a genuine Gold Cup contender has added a welcome additional challenge from Ireland after the sad injury to Sir Des Champs.
Is Al Ferof really 16/1 after that dismal performance on Saturday? The bookmakers are worse than the handicapper at reacting to race results, win and you shorten, lose and you stay the same in the antepost market. 2/1 for Bob's Worth could look superb value on the day, I think I will start backing him NRNB in the next few days. I just don't see what is going to come out and beat him. SC is the next best, but I don't see him getting up the hill in the same form as BW, whilst Cue Card surely won't stay unless its good ground (as if). I am also a little bit tempted by the Giant Bolster, who loves it around Cheltenham and will run on past horses up the hill. Might back him to place (any odds on the place market Betfair?)
nass -surely if you doing the bolster , you have to consider the Topper on that argento form-level weights this time-very ground dependant though...at this level
Topper will make more mistakes in big field where he gets tested, whereas I think TGB is just a dour stayer who makes mistakes whatever pace they go!! Harry Topper is ground dependent as you say, and I can't see it coming up that soft to help him. Even if it did, I can't see him beating BW.
Topper is a very young and inexperienced horse with enormous potential,at 6 he should not even be going there, but such is his ability they have to keep options open--i agree the jumping needs to keep improving, but it has been, the ground could well remain like this for the next month mate--i wouldn't bet against it !-- but yes the fav looks pretty bomb proof at the moment !
I'm not convinced that Bobs Worth is bombproof - I can't forget that horrible run in the Betfair Chase, with the only reason given being "the track didn't suit". He was as terrible that day as he was impressive in the Lexus (although Last Instalment was arguably more impressive in the Hennessy yesterday - certainly put more daylight between himself and First Lieutenant than Bobs Worth did, with Lyreen Legend giving the form a solid feel). The market is currently priced with Cheltenham form as the main driver (which is clearly a very important factor). With last Instalment you're taking the chance that he might hate Cheltenham, as he has never run there. But for me he represents better value at 10/1 than Bobs Worth at 2/1. 10/1 e/w Last Instalment NRNB looks an attractive proposition.
There'll not be a better jumper in the Gold Cup field than Last Installment that's certain. Not sure if I can see him winning one. Only wish Nicky would bleeding well run little Bob's Worth more often. He seems very content to apply the cotton wool to his stable stars the last few seasons which is sad to see.
Looking at the CGC market right now, in my view, those bookie chappies have the heat totally right and I can see little value in any of those at the front end of the betting. Maybe, however, if Medermit returns to the track at Ascot on Saturday, in the same level of form he was in prior to his injury (Grade 1 and Grade 2 chasing form reads -214213234) then the current quote of 100/1 will be but a fraction of that on Saturday eve.
Is Ruby Walsh spare in this? I would dearly love Paul Nicholls to have a word and get him on Al Ferof and keep Noel on Conti. Clutching at straws? Seriously though, surely someone would pick Ruby up?
Have already backed Silviniaco at 6s, and 7/2, and had a saver on Bobs Worth just after the Lexus at 3/1. Think it's between these two, and although he came down last year I think Conti is one of the most talented and best jumping horses in training, and can see him getting his head in front this time around
Harry Topper can't jump park fences on a flat course never mind compete in a CGC in the jumping stakes. I actaully don't like a flashy jumper wasting energy over an extended 3m and a fence skimmer like Bob's Worth is ideal but getting from one side to the other of an obstacle in less than 10 seconds is imperative...Kim Bailey also said he was "flat out" over 3m+ on deep ground on Saturday. I love the horse and have won several quid on him but he will be tailed off in the Gold Cup regardless of the ground because of his ponderous fencing...and he is very slow. Anyone remember any flashy jumpers of yesteryear...how about The Mighty Mac,Dessie..or the best I ever saw,Kilkilowen. Anymore for anymore!!??
Dessie was some exuberant horse -wow he was a crowd puller ! think you being a bit harsh on topper dexter, he is young and inexperienced for the level he is competing at and Winning- flat out he may have been--but pre race all the waffle was about Al Ferof and Katenko -were they also not flat out on the day, and left in Topper's wake-you may be right about his CGC prospects this year, but on the other hand , with testing conditions , connections must be tempted to let him take his chance , all things being well. It was noticable that he was up with the pace on sat as opposed to the Charlie Hall and last years Newbury win, which still remains in my mind.Yes he had to be given some reminders by his jockey,but you can only beat what you are faced with.
Aintree was his place. I remember watching him in his novice season, and thinking that he was just a cut above the rest with his jumping. Also he lowered Kauto's colours at Aintree. Not many horses have done that!
shows how the memory plays tricks--did he not race at haydock then ? --i could be getting mixed up with another horse then ! grey trained by Richards?
Flashiest of them all has to be Sprinter Sacre ............. but he'll never match Dessie's popularity - he was a one-off.
