Another one bites the dust. Must admit I found it hilarious how everyone jumped on the So You Think bandwagon and lauded its victories over Group 3 and listed horses. The POW was his first real test and he didn't quite live up to expectations. A week ago he was supposed to have frightened off Workforce. I'd be very surprised if Workforce wouldn't have Rewilding's measure over ten furlongs. A question must be how do Coolmore hang on to the value of their investment? A defeat by Rewilding wasn't on the cards. I suppose the first two in the POW will now go for the Eclipse but won't Workforce? It's beginning to look an interesting race. If King Shergar is correct Rewilding won't have a chance because it's only 3 weeks away but I think piecing together a theory on his freshness is an example of backjobbing rather than hard evidence. You can as confidently say he didn't do better than 3rd in the Derby because he probably wasn't good enough, and he didn't win the Leger because he probably didn't stay.
It would seem that some took delight in seeing So You Think beaten, solely because he's from downunder. To those who think along these lines, there is little I can say that will have any meaning. For that matter there is no reason to believe that anyone takes the slightest bit of notice about anything I say, but that's between me and my ego. I was one of those who sat up until the AM to watch the Prince Of Wales's Stakes. To see the "great hope" of the South have his colours lowered in such a painful fashion, was hard to take. But that's horse racing. The question to be asked now, is whether the animal is still a genuine heavyweight, after such a defeat? I personally think that he is. Rewilding is a quality horse who went into last years Derby as a real chance. He ended up running a cracker of a race, in finishing third. He now seems a much more mature animal, who will take a strong hold in any of the big races, the Arc included. The fact that it took him a furlong and a half to pick up So You think, and beat him a neck, says the that the second horse is still a major contender in the same big races that Rewilding will probably contest. On face value, seeing that he was run down over 10f, it would be easy to believe that So You think will not stay a mile and a half against the best. But when a horse like Twice Over gets beaten 10L, it must say something about the depth of this year's Prince Of Wales. Added to this, is the manner in which the horse looked flat to the boards with still a couple of furlongs to travel. As try as I might, I can't believe that So You Think will only get a mile. His record in Australia, says otherwise. This brings me to Australian race form. It was intimated that So You Think's race yesterday, was an indication of just how "average" Australian middle distance form is. That's one hell of a bow to draw from a single race result, especially when espoused by one who readily professes to "detest the Aussies from a sporting point of view." I'm sure that the comment was uttered with tongue firmly in cheek, but it really doesn't hit at any genuine knowledge of racing in the Southern Hemisphere. Maybe the gent in question should get himself to Melbourne for the Spring carnival, if only for educational purposes. One only has to listen to the likes of Luca Cumani, AOB and Dermot Weld to get an understanding of the depths of middle distance racing in Australia.
Cyclonic I think you are right to make a lot of the comments you make. Visiting Australia many times and having many Australian friends I know the nature of your country and its people. Some statements made on this board are inexcusable. However it doesn't take away the fact that many bloggers ascribed enormous powers to this animal... the tank the monster. It was just over the top. Any horse is beatable under certain conditions and on certain days. Yesterday was one of them for So You Think, and as good as Rewilding may be I don't think he's a great.
Bustino75, I fully expect to see So You Think line up for the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown. One narrow defeat does not make him a bad horse and the winner is a decent horse. All the hype meant that the betting was a complete joke. If I had been able to get on the Exchanges I would have laid 2/5 and 4/11 all day because it was ridiculous. Some of the opinions that have been espoused are entirely coloured by the starting prices. The headline on the BBC site “Rewilding upsets So You Think” is as stupid as their “Canford Cliffs upsets Goldikova” after the Queen Anne. Once the Gold Cup has been run, will we be reading “Horse X upsets Fame And Glory”? Cyc, I am not one of the ones that denigrates Antipodean racing having never been there, but I do take pleasure when we beat you in the Ashes because (a) it has not happened much in my lifetime; and (b) that is what sporting rivalry is all about.
The fact Sri Putra got to within 6 lengths of So You Think says a great deal, and for me that is the horse you have to draw the formline through. Sri Putra is a Group 2/3 horse and not an exceptional one of them at that, yet he was able to get within 6 lengths of the front pair. If you go on a length a 1lb ratio that would mean that he ran to less than 10lbs worse than the front two, and personally I don't see him as a 110 horse. I would therefore have to say that So You Think ran below his official mark of 126 (I have him running to 120 at best), and that would mean Rewilding ran to around his mark of 121. Workforce is a good horse but is he better over 1m4? I can't wait for the Eclipse, and we may see a proper price for So You Think
NB, at this level of racing, Sri Putra is what I would call a donkey. Just like Campanologist that So You Think hammered at The Curragh. The fact that Twice Over could not confirm Eclipse Stakes form with Sri Putra shows how badly he ran. I think that in quite a few of the pattern races we see outsiders being entered by the big owners which they are keeping in training purely to allow them to gauge the ability of the other runners. Campanologist is one such horse. He never seems to run in any race that he has a realistic chance of winning.
If AOB is just making an excuse then expect to see SYT turned over again in his next races - Eclipse? King George? etc. or whatever it is. If he feels he cocked up and didn't have him fit enough then see how he goes next time - if he wins then that could have been the case - time will tell! I wonder if connections of Workforce are kicking themselves slightly for not turning up now?
Flyingbolt, if Workforce had not run so close to the meeting, they would surely have let him take his chance as the ground would have been no problem. The ground might be quick by the time the Eclipse comes around and then he would not run or, more likely, they will be going to Saint-Cloud on 26th June. They would have to have phoned around to find another jockey for So You Think! Fallon was free.
Cyclonic......I don't have anything personally against Australians, i just love to see them getting beat, purely because there is such a big sporting rivalry between us over the years. Bert Cummings comments aswell made it all the more satisfying. Our racibg is not worth 2 bob, yet the top horse in Australia gets beat in his first real test over here. Anyways Id agree with most of what you said as regards So You Think's performance, as in defeat he still ran a good race, and was just gunned down by a very classy horse, he will still be a contender in the biggest races this season, and I could see him reversing form with Rewilding on faster ground. As for Australian middle distance racing, So You Think was the best horse 10-12f horse in Australia by quite someway, is Rewilding the best in Europe, probably not. So it doesn't say alot about the standard over there. If you think I'm just being bias to our racing, them take a look at my comments on the King Stands article, were I have mentioned how much better your sprinters are than ours. I've even mentioned how good a horse Black Caviar must be when you see how close Star Witness was to winning after missing the break in the King Stands, so I give you guys credit when you deserve it
I would issue a warning to those who are too hasty to write off So You Think. I was totally convinced that this horse was a superstar before the Prince Of Wales' and i am still pretty sure that he will prove himself to be just that. Unsurprisingly my conviction is not what it was. He ran as if he didn't stay. Whether that was because he didn't stay or because he wasn't fit is open to conjecture. However the fact that Aidan O'Brien has suggested as such i am prepared to believe him on this occasion. Similarly it seems very hard to believe that he does not stay 10f considering his form. The pacemaker was a massive hindrance to his chances. He was probably the quickest horse in the field so i cannot understand why they felt the need to set an electric pace which could only suit the staying types (like Rewilding) and go against the speed horses. I don't think the pacemaker was of any help whatsoever and was a possible hindrance. I think Ryan hit the front a furlong to soon. I am quite sure that if he were to ride the race again he would hang on to him for a little longer and save his finishing kick for later in the race. He quickened up very smartly and took two lengths out of the field but was getting tired and was really tying up in the last 100 yards or so. So all in all, it was a disappointment but not a disaster. It might be that he is not the superstar the we were promised but i think it is too early to judge. There were legitimate reasons for his defeat and whilst it would have been nice to see him win regardless, i think it is unwise to not give him a second chance. I remain confident that this is a horse of the highest calibre and feel certain that we will get the priviledge of seeing him in better light later in the season. I am wary of trainer excuses but on this occasion, the suggestion that he was just short of prime fitness fits with the evidence that i saw. He looked the best horse in the race when he quickened up well entering the straight. At that stage i was ready for an impressive win but he started to flounder as Rewilding's sustained run began to catch him. He was weakening but i still thought he was going to hang on and then all of a sudden he started to paddle in the last 100 yards. He was beaten but still emerged with credit for a gutsy performance with a few seemingly valid reasons for his defeat. I'll give him another chance next time and if nobody else is prepared to then all the better for me because i should get a nice price.
There is no way So You Think is a non stayer, he was 6 from 6 over 10f before yesterday, and he has finished 3rd in a Melbourne Cup over 2 miles, maybe he didn't quite stay 2 miles but he had had 2 races in the last 10 days before the Melbourne Cup, one being only 2 days before it, I'd imagine he may have won that race had he gone there fresher. I'd agree Zenyatta that So You Think may have still won had Moore held onto him more, and gone for glory half a furlong later, but that's easy to say in hindsight. I wouldn't take alot of notice of AOB and his excuses, this was SYTs 3rd run of the season at one of the biggest flat meetings in the world, with a massive reutation to conquer, there isno way he wasn't fit enough
Agree with every word there Shergar. SYT stays at least a mile and a half and AOB was at his worst yesterday, trying to take something away from a fine performance by Rewilding.
I can understand people being on the defensive of So You Think, particularly as inevitably a lot of money was staked on him fulfilling a fraction of these lofty hopes and aspersions that were had. But when taking a balanced view I think there's no doubt that Ballydoyle hype machine worked to perfection. Most were buying into this 'superstar', 'never seen a horse like him' nonsense that we hear year in year out from that stable. George Washington, Dylan Thomas, One Cool Cat, St Nicholas Abbey, Hawk Wing, the list really is endless. People may turn around and say that they 'don't buy into the hype' but why was he sent off 30-100? By beating Campanologist and trees in Ireland, or his previous win at 1-10 or something silly? Be serious, it wasn't form that made this horse that price... He failed to carry the burden of expectation and it was sad to see. Everyone was hoping for something special, a real sit back and enjoy the moment like Frankel's Guineas. As much as people would warn others of writing him off (and I shall not do that) I would equally warn people that they should see some substance on the racetrack rather than simply buy into what the talking sales catalogue for Coolmore has to say. Especially when you've been talked into thinking that a horse at 1-3 is value, he had won two egg and spoon races but people still believed he was that much of a certainty and offered 'value.' The excuses from O'Brien I found were pitiful in the extreme, not fit for Royal Ascot?! Really Aidan, really?!! It couldn't have been that the horse wasn't good enough, perish the thought... Talk is very cheap.
I am in total agreement with everything you say Shergar. There is no way that So You Think doesn't stay 10 furlongs. However he looked as if he was running on empty at the death yesterday which to me seems to support Aidan's argument that So You Think was short of peak fitness because he hadn't given the horse enough work. To my eye he was quite comfortably the best horse in the race. He quickened very well and took a couple of lengths out of the field in a short space of time. For whatever reason he was unable to sustain that to the line. As Shergar has suggested, it is difficult to believe that he failed to stay, and therefore this seems to support the argument that he was lacking fitness. In addition, his previous two runs this season can't be used to support both the 'his form is worth nothing' and the 'he's run twice this season so must be race fit' arguments. He beat trees and therefore the form is worth little. But on the same score he probably does more work at home every morning than he did there so the fact that he has 'raced' twice is hardly going to have gained him race fitness. He is obviously a horse that is going to divide opinion. There will be some who despise the 'hype' surrounding him, whilst others will be keen to witness and build up a potentially great horse. I was very confident that this horse is exceptional and i remain confident that he will show everyone what he can do. He didn't just get given his huge reputation, he earned it. I think he should have won yesterday but he ran in such a manner as to suggest that he would improve for the race. It was obviously a disappointment that he was unable to win yesterday but i will not be deserting him just yet.
He's a very good horse, no one doubts that but let's not get carried away. I can't see how we can say he is exceptional yet? It's can't be based on his three runs in UK, Ireland. And he's been beaten in Australia too, where one suspects there middle distance horses may lack the strength in depth of here? We'll be better able to heap praise on him if he runs in the Eclipse or King George and wins well. Let see the horse do the talking
Zenyatta....They went a pretty strong gallop, and So You Think kicked for home early, and he wasn't able to sustain that finish to the line, that's like saying Frankel doesn't stay a mile, because he was getting tired late on in the St Jame's palace. It's not that neither horse stays it's that the button was pressed to early on both, horses cannot go flat out forever! Wether So You Think was 100% I think it's perfectly understandable that he got tired late on considering the fast gallop, so I don't buy that he was unfit and that's why he didn't keep going to the line. We will see So You Think again I'd imagine, so he has the chance to redeem himself, I do think he will reverse form with Rewilding on faster ground and a more patient ride, as he clearly has a better turn of foot
The way Frankel and So You Think finished was very different. They both kicked early (and in Frankel's case very very early) and i don't think a comparison is at all valid. Anyway Frankel was gradually slowing up to the line and never really looked like getting passed. In contrast So You Think was keeping on well until the final furlong when he began to slow as Rewilding ate into his lead. And then inside the final 100 yards he faded quite noticeably and Rewilding must have taken a length out of him in a relatively short space of time. This is what, in my opinion, provides possible justification to Aiden's argument that he wasn't fit. To my eyes he seemed to hit a wall with around 100 yards to go. I suppose it is down to how you interpret what you see. I am quite prepared to be wrong but i can only say what i saw.
Not sure if you read - http://unbearablebetting.com/2011/06/15/prince-of-wales-sectional-data/ I think its very interesting in how they use the times to show how Frankel and SYT ran their races.
That pretty much fits perfectly with what I saw. Perhaps he didn't quicken quite as well as I thought but my feeling was that, unlike Frankel, he was keeping on at the same pace and it was only in the last 100 yards or so when he started to paddle.
