Good luck but you need the consistent SDG to under perform and your fella to over perform to even be in with a chance at the business end. Not one for me. I took the 6/4 SDG a couple of days ago for a fair punt. He's a different horse this season. I really like him.
Sire De Grugy has been beating 2m4 plodders in a weak division in England. The form of that Dial-A-Bet is different class, Kid Cassidy who beat Sire De Grugy beaten 60 lengths, Baily Green who ran a blinder in the Kinlock Brae today beaten 30 lengths, Sizing Europe beaten 16, 4 time Grade 1 winner Arvika in 3rd and Benefficient is high class on his day. Cyclones run in the Paddy Power was top drawer aswell giving a stone to two handicap goodthings. Im not even concerned about Sire De Grugy regardless of the farsical ratings, Days Hotel the only danger and ive got a saver on him at 12s.
The handicapper has Oiseau De Nuit a pound behind Hidden Cyclone Career in stand up awaits the rater.
I'd ignore Arvika's run at Christmas. He has to go right handed to produce his best. The Cyclone is a good horse and 8's was wrong but if we're talking about the most likely winner SDG is the most likely. If Cyclone wins then fair enough but I've fallen into that trap before. He often runs well but irregularly wins. Days Hotel? For me, no.
Irregularly wins? 10 out of 18 for a jumper aint bad, 5 out of 6 over hurdles, dont forget he has only come back right this season, you can put a line through 4 of his runs last year. Sire De Grugy is 11 from 22 so Cyclone has a better win ratio than him.
9/2 with Paddy again if you fancy that. You 're right about the winning stats. I suppose a lot were over hurdles and pre lay off. Like I said he's good. 8/1 was wrong. 4/1 is still big and I'd back him e/w if there were 8 runners. It's a 3 runner race with SDG as my most likely winner. Saturday will reveal all.
This Clarence House chase is an interesting little contest on Saturday.. I was really impressed with Hidden Cyclone in the paddy Power Gold Cup and he is obviously very well thought of as he is supposedly going to the Champion Chase at the Festival. Sire De Gugy goes well in the mud and has looked very good this season. I am very interested in Somersby. He looks a different beast this year and trainer and Hen Knight have confirmed that he is on a different level from last season when they just couldnt get him right. Somersby finished 2nd to the great Master Minded in this race in 2010 and in 2011 he won it beating Finians Rainbow. Last season I discount as he just wasnt right. He clearly acts very well round Ascot and stays 2 miles 4 furlongs easily and therefore will get the trip. The ground is a bit of an unknown but can you not see Somersby getting the better of these two. Sandown over 2 miles on good ground where he lost out to SDG is a lot different to a testing track like Ascot in deeper ground!
Isnt Somersby better on good ground? Sire De Grugy and Hidden Cyclone love the mud, and neither will get done for stamina at 2m1.
Stats against him too being a 10yo, neck beating of Module giving only 3 pounds doesnt look to hot after Huntingdon, Cue Card jumped like a dog on the day as he tends to when pressured for the lead, dont see any reason why he should reverse form with Sire De Grugy, other than random sentimental jump racing results that defy form.
Good question MOG. Somersby finished 3rd to the great Sprinter Sacre - the only time he has raced on heavy.. He didnt look like he couldnt get home to me at Cheltenham which is a more demanding track. Somersby has won a couple of races on soft ground... a grade 2 at Huntington beating the useful Crack Away Jack. Somersby has run in a King george and at 2 miles 4 furlongs so staying shouldnt be a problem. The ground is a bit of an unknown. He looks in good form to me.. ok he got beat by Sire de Grugy on GOOD ground round Sandown but Ascot he loves, is a more testing track and I think he s more suited to it. ..
Backed SOMERSBY Yep I'm a little worried about the ground and the rising confidence of Cyclone but it just feels like it will be Somersby's day He loves Ascot and with the recent loss of old Terry, the story is already being written and the photo's being taken of Hen and Somersby
Good enough to trouble a fully tuned up Sprinter Sacre do you think Bob? Or would you still think SS is still a class above?
That was a great run but Sprinter is different class if he's fit. I'd have a concern about whether he likes Cheltenham as well.
