I see it's been reported that Mr Hendersonâs Long Run will have his next 2 races in handicaps and now that his perch has dropped to as low as 163 (was 15 lbs higher just over 12 months ago) expect to see this mark well and truly exploited by the end of the campaign. The old boy wonât race again until after the Grand National weights have been unveiled, in early to mid February, so as to protect this mark for Aintree. After this date (when this allocation canât be altered, re the GN, no matter what happens) he will go to Kempton Park for the race that was formerly the âRacing Post Chaseâ. That heat is at the moment without a sponsor but the racecourse hope to have one in place by its off time on 22 Feb. Then its full tilt to Aintree where Mr Henderson looks to have masterminded a brilliant plot to secure the old boy a perch a fair bit off top weight (Tidal Bay is currently on 168 after his Welsh National heroics) and on a similar mark to horses who look âOrdinary with a capital âOâ. But this has been secured within the rules of racing before any members in the âcheap seatsâ start suggesting otherwise! By crickey, 4 miles+ is what Long Run has been crying out for for over a year now and when he gets that expanse of distance expect him to devour the fences and the course like none other before him. He hasn't deteriorated at all - he simply these days needs an extreme stamina test. Personally I can see Long Run obliging at Kempers Park and then again at Aintree amid the sort of jubilant scenes never before witnessed on a racecourse â as in Mr Henderson and the two Mr Waley-Cohenâs a horse has never had more popular and more loved connections. Iâm already on in the latter heat at 33âs and honestly people still see 25/1 re Long Run and Aintree as representing stunning value. Finally re Mr Henderson and Aintree on Saturday he said that after years and years of not having a âNational type horseâ in 2014 he believes he has 3 possible victors, Long Run, Hennessy winner Triolo DâAlene and old boy Shakalakaboomboom. Donât be surprised then that even if Long Run disappoints the forumâs favourite wins the heat and therefore in doing so secures his 4th Trainers title. Anyone else got 'early' thoughts on the 2014 GN???
Long Run's tendency to clout the odd fence or 7 would be a worry at Aintree, although it's certainly not the jumping challenge of yesteryear any more. I think so much depends on the ground for the National. I wouldn't therefore be risking ante post money on it. If it comes up juicy and Monbeg Dude can sneak in at the bottom end of the handicap (currently rated 146) then there would be worse bets in the world I suppose. 25/1 available now but I'll wait for the day of the race.
Sorry, never did like the hoss much, or the trainer, or the jockey, or the owner....hmmm, maybe it's because I don't care for the dentist's chair? Could go well in the GN, I guess, but I would be surprised if it did.
Yep, Oddy, ante-post always a risk but just of the opinion that if he gets to Aintree then Long Run will probably be only a quarter of those odds of 33/1 and I consider his chances of actually winning the event, even at this stage, far, far higher than 2.94%. Re Mondeg Dude I remember reading, in I think the Weekender, some scribe mentioning the possibility of him turning into a Synchronised and going from staying handicaps to the main event at Chletenham. Especially if it came up very soft. He’s 66/1 for the CGC but connections will as you say probably favour Aintree. Swanny, if Long Run wins may be in future years the ‘Chair’ will be renamed ‘The Dentists Chair’ in honour of the younger Mr Waley-Cohen, the forum’s favourite Corinthian. The next question must be what fence would be named after Mr Henderson?!?
'Hendo's Hedge'?!? 'Hendo's High Hurdle'?!? Bob, that chap looks like a total rogue who's in need of sectioning!
Even with the fences much reduced I cannot see Long Run winning a National. Its not even that he may fall Its just that he will clout 3 or 4 heavily and in a race where a good galloping rhythm is all important one or two clouted takes away your chance. This aside he has had his mark dropped for a reason as he is not the horse he was and may find it hard to give such weight away in handicaps anyway.
I think you can get away with clouting these fences now. The 'fence' just seems to fall apart because there is nothing substantial in it when it get hit. It just falls down. Which is why i think you can actually jump through the fence now as apposed to over it. As proven by a non jumper winning it last year. The day's are gone when you could simply put a line through a horse with jumping questions marks to answer.
So how much weight will Tidal Bay be giving a Gold Cup winner? Interesting that we might have a really lopsided field if TB does run.
I will answer myself - Tidal Bay 168 (10lbs higher than Imperial Commander last year) Long Run 163 Given Mssr Smith's fondness for compressing weights and giving top weights a fair chance I would suggest Tidal Bay 11st 10 Long Run 11st 6 With 10st bottom weight, you would need to be rated 144+ to be in the weights properly (Auroras Encore ran off 137 last year) which only 19 of last years runners would end up in the weights.
Teaforthree would be my idea of a bet with Paddy Power offering 25s at the moment. Ran a fine race last year, does not appear to be ground dependant and if Tidal Bay runs will get a very nice weight. Also I've had a look through the JP horses and would be surprised if AP could do the likely weight on any of them. I may well have missed one but if that's the case I wouldn't be surprised to see him aboard the Curtis horse.
McManus’ leading hope, well according to the bookie chappies anyway, Colbert Station is rated 150 at the moment so should get in with about 10 and half stone or thereabouts (if Tidal Bay stands his ground off 168). If he hasn’t got anything standout though he’ll probably go out a buy a prominent contender! Nass, think you are spot on with your weight assessment. Providing the ‘top 2’ make it to ‘tapes up’ can see Long Run having to shoulder something like 11-6. Mr Henderson’s other 2 major challengers Triolo and Shakalakaboomboom would be looking at something like 11 stone or just above and 10 stone respectively by my reckoning. The latter incidentally is a 66/1 shot but the great man was very positive about him on CH4 on Saturday afternoon and in 2012 went off favourite for the race!
