interesting. He was running over 2m 6f wasn't he on Sunday? Did Willie give any indication as to whether the drop would be to 2m or 2m4f?
The Liquidator looked mightly impressive, seemed to tank along gradually uping the Ante and going through the gears. Had the field beat from a long way out. Looks a natural to hurdles, looks highly likely to be an exciting prospect. Saying that though, trainer didn't commit himself to the Supreme route.
West Wizard's early season bubble was well and truly burst as he met with defeat at the hands of Sgt Reckless at Kempton at odds of 1/6 . Mick Channon's Imperial Dancer gelding simply had too much for West Wizard and quickened smartly up the home straight after making most of the running. Quotes as low as 16/1 for Sgt Reckless for the Supreme don't really appeal but if he can keep improving he may be a lively outsider come March. He is obviously highly thought of as he contested both the Cheltenham and Aintree Champion Bumpers and certainly left a good impression here. As for West Wizard, connections have not yet written him off and he remains close to the head of the market at around 14/1 - 16/1. But those sitting on 8/1 ante post vouchers will be hoping for an explosive performance next time out. ROTO's 20/1 NRNB voucher on Moyle Park looks like a shrewd bit of business as Willie Mullins charge got off the mark with the minimum of fuss at Navan. Always travelling well close to the leader he quickened nicely from 3 out and had too much for his rivals, justifying 4/5 favouritism. Time will tell what the form is worth, but it will surely be graded level next for Moyle Park who is now top-priced 16/1.
Reading between the lines of Hendo’s comments re West Wizard’s timber debut at Kempton Park it would appear that he was about 5% fit for it! I really, really think we will see a totally different horse next time. The 20’s that was original available, after Kempton, is now all gone and 16/1 is the best price available. Amazing market this with those bookie chappies apparently as clueless as most of the punters. ‘12/1 the field' they are shouting!
Update 27th December: After rattling up a hat-trick of victories inside 5 weeks, the Paul Nicholls trained Irving is now the market leader with most firms at around the 12/1 mark. The last of his 3 victories was in the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices Hurdle at Ascot where he accounted for Mr Henderson's well backed favourite, Volnay De Thaix, in convincing fashion. Otherwise its pretty much as you were at the head of the market with The Liquidator and Moyle Park (who runs later today) next best with Bet 365 - here is their betting courtesy of Oddschecker: Irving 12 Garde La Victoire 12 Ballyalton 12 Tiger Cliff 12 Mijhaar 14 The Liquidator 14 Moyle Park 14 The uncertainty around the Mullins novices continues. Most firms have Moyle Park (who seems his most likely candidate for this) at the head of their markets. Briar Hill (who looks more like the Neptune horse) is 10/1 fav with Hills for the Supreme but not even in the book with B365. Faugheen (who has already been over 20F and 22F and looks like the Albert Bartlett horse) is still 10/1 market leader for the Supreme with B365 20/1 with most other firms. Come on B365, sort your bloody book out !!!
This might be a stupid question, and if so please point me in the right direction but I have been following racing now since 2010 and usually in this race don't we see a short priced favourite. I remember losing my entire balance on Dunguib, then Cue Card and last year it was MTOY. Will this happen this year? Which races should I be looking out for? I am trying to avoid any ante-post bets.
Kev, you are right in saying that short-priced favourites have struggled, but this can change at any time. I think the key thing to remember with the Supreme Novice Hurdle is that many of the horses in it are not the fnished article. There is a bucketload of talent that hasn't yet been fully realised- a notable case being Sprinter Sacre when he finished 3rd in this race in 2011, and Cue Card 4th too. The short price usually comes from a) an impressive bumper winner from the previous years festival (Dunguib, Cue Card), or a horse that mixes well in open company (takes on older horses- such as My Tent Or Yours in the Betfair Hurdle, Cue Card taking on Menorah in the International Hurdle, Darlan in the 2012 Betfair Hurdle prior to unshipping AP McCoy just 3 from home). As we saw last year with Champagne Fever, Champion Bumper winners can win the Supreme Novice, it just so happened that he wasn't the favourite due to the up and down season he had. Remember, this is the opening race of the festival- a sensible tip would be to just go easy and have a smaller bet on this race because it is so wide open. Save any slightly bigger bets for something you really fancy. I have no idea who the short price favourite will be this year but I assume a horse will win one of the top novice events really well or go and run well in the Betfair Hurdle. Sandown Park's Tolworth hurdle is not far away and I believe that has attracted a number of promising novice hurdlers- including last years Champion Bumper winner Briar Hill- and therefore might start to shape the market for this race. I would probably play this on the day unless something catches my eye at a very big price but it is unlikely. To summarise- It is a brilliant race to watch, but a very difficult one to bet in. Keep that in mind and that should keep you sensible
Interesting you mention the Tolworth Toppy - it is this coming Saturday at Sandown and there are currently 16 entered including 4 from Mullins and 3 from Henderson. I couldn't even tell you which are likely to run, never mind finding the winner . Sound advice to steer clear of this race until the day .
And was roundly beaten.......... any thoughts on this ROTO, as my fortunes are also invested in this??!! The Tullow Tank seems like a decent enough sort, but not sure about the 33-1 second.
Champagne Fever was trounced by Jezki and Rule The World this time last year reebs, but still went on to win the Supreme it's about gaining experience until the big day and I still think Moyle Park has a big chance in the Supreme. Didn't like the heavy ground the other day I would say, won't be like that in March.
Very sound advice...... whilst its nice to start the festival week with a winner - picking the winner is extremely tough in this race - saying that though I did actually have Champagne Fever last year so I got off to a good start!! Willie Mullins is the worst trainer for trying to suss out where his horses will run and dont be put off by some of his horses having ups and downs in a season. Its deliberate on occasions if you ask me!
One of my favourite races of all time: [video=youtube;nANps0jY2pI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nANps0jY2pI[/video]
I was there that day Toppy and believe me, when they jumped the 3rd last and the commentator says "Cue Card now begins to make ground between rivals" there was a bigger roar than at the start of the race- Still sends shivers down my spine - I think about 95% of the crowd were on him (including me - shame he couldn't stay on up the hill quite so well as a young horse). Still can't believe Al Ferof won
The Tolworth sees The Liquidator running and he has form on all sorts of ground so will take a bit of beating. Hes proven at Cheltenham also and at this stage he is my idea of the Supreme winner. However there is a horse who isnt even in any of the betting currently who has already bolted up on Hurdle debut. Meadowcroft Boy. He is due to run next at Donny on the 8th and believe me, after he bolts up there people will definitely take note and will be competing for favouritism afterwards.
He's definitely not beaten much so far thats true the form frankly stinks but he wasnt even out of 2nd gear he jumped very fluently and at speed aswell and quickened up nicely. I remember after he had won the yard were very hopeful that they had a serious animal on their hands. Might drop Bet365 an email tonight asking for a price however i think the Neptune would be another viable option too
Thanks for the replies. I wanted some specifics on which races sort of 'shape-the-market' and having looked at the Sandown card I probably would have spotted this... any others I should make a note in the diary for?
