Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years: Age (for age purposes we will assume the race run in 2010-11 season was run in 2010) 5yo: 1-0-2 6yo: 2-4-14 7yo: 3-6-24 8yo: 1-3-25 9yo: 1-2-15 10yo: 0-3-9 11+: 2-0-9 Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 6-10-40 Compare that to horses aged 8 or older of 4-8-58. Kauto Star has accounted for 3 of the 4 winners aged 8+. Breeding French bred: 8-10-44 Irish bred: 2-5-35 GB bred: 0-3-16 German bred: 0-0-3 French-bred horses have won last 7 and have accounted for 18 of 28 places in last 10 runnings from approximately 44.9% of total runners. Recent/Past Form 7 of 10 winners won on their last completed start (3 exceptions placed) 8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 170+ last time 9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days 10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season 8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was runner-up in a grade 1 on only previous start over 3M+) 8 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases 10 of 10 winners had won 2 or more grade 1 chases 7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd over this CD (2 others having first course start) Other Races Previous year's winner (Long Run): 0111132 (4-2-7) Highest placed finisher from previous King George: 4501411132 (4-2-10) Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Bobs Worth): 1112 (3-1-4) Highest placed finisher from Cheltenham Gold Cup: F514112P (3-1-9) Record of horses that finished in first 3 in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 1311121P1 (6-1-9) Betfair Chase winner (Cue Card): P11711 (4-0-6) Highest placed finisher from Betfair Chase: P1171511 (5-0-8) Denman Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): F121 (2-1-4) Ascot Chase winner (Cue Card): 216 (1-1-3) Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Sir Des Champs): 315 (1-1-3) Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): P13P (1-1-4) Feltham Novice Chase winner (Dynaste): P61 (1-0-3) Peterborough Chase winner: 4334P (0-2-5) RSA Chase winner (Lord Windermere): 2 (0-1-1) Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 3 (0-1-1) Amlin1965 Chase winner (Al Ferof): 6P2 (0-1-3)* Charlie Hall Chase winner (Harry Topper): 6P4 (0-0-3) Ryanair Chase winner (Cue Card): PP5P6 (0-0-5) 7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 311U112 6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 111132 2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21 2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 1P 2 of 10 winners ran in Denman Chase, finishing 11 6 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 112133 10 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase at previous season's Cheltenham Festival 2 of 2 second season chasers to win this had placed in Arkle or RSA Trainers Paul Nicholls (5-2-14) has won 5 of the last 7 renewals with Kauto Star. Nicky Henderson (2-3-11) saddled Long Run to finish 1st-2nd-1st in last 3 runnings. David Pipe (0-3-10) & Philip Hobbs (0-2-5) have both saddled multiple placed finishers in past 10 years, and saddled the 3rd & 2nd respectively last year. Irish-trained runners (2-0-4) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, both Kicking King. Willie Mullins hasnât had a runner in this in past 10 years but he did saddle Florida Pearl to finish 2nd & 1st in the first 2 runnings of the race this century. Price The last 9 winners came from first 2 in the betting. Edredon Bleu at 25/1 in 2003 has been only winner to be sent off greater than 9/2 since 2003. 7 of 10 favourites have won and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 6.06. Conclusion: Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 6 or 7 - French bred - Has run 1 to 3 times this season - Won last time out in the past 40 days (posting RPR of 170+) - Won over 3M+ - Won 2 or more Grade 1 chases - Previously finished 1st or 2nd over this CD - Finished in first 3 in last seasonâs King George and/or Gold Cup or - Second season chaser who placed in 2013 Arkle or RSA Chase - Finished in first 3 in the 2013 Betfair Chase - Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson - From first 2 in the betting (priced no bigger than 8/1) Its DYNASTE 7/2 for me
SILVINIACO CONTI will be a solid bet for me on Boxing Day. He stays, is a lovely jumper (barring that slip at Cheltenham), and has the tactical speed to handle this. He screamed 'will come on for a run' in the Betfair chase. I thought he looked a King George horse when he won the Betfair 2012. He was second in the Feltham two years ago and is 10x the horse that he was then. Al Ferof will continue to improve at 3m and I would look at him as a Gold Cup antepost option as he has some top class Cheltenham form but I just think SC will be better in the softer ground and Al Ferof will improve in the spring and be the better horse then.
I fancy AL FEROF to charge home. He's come back from his injury better than ever (good news for Big Bucks as same injury), track, ground all ok and I think he'll get the 3m trip well. Had a couple of small nibbles at 10/1 a while ago and just had £20 on at 9/2 over the weekend, fancy him.
Captain Chris is out of the KGVI See link...http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/25491752 I had an e/w bet on him for last years race, and although I wasn't sure he would do it again this year, I am a bit sad that he has had to be pulled out... I hope he gets his fitness back as I do like this horse a lot...
Thats sad to hear..... . Simple for me this race. Al Ferof is the one for me. 3 miles round Kempton will be ideal and soft ground wont be a problem. If you heard Paul Nicholls recently he was very confident that Al Ferof will stay (being by Dom Alco) and to me Kempton could bring the best out of him. He has a bit of flambouyancy about his jumping at times and the way he took the last at Ascot was pretty awesome. He has quite a high cruising speed as well so he ticks all the right boxes...
This really is a very, very good renewal with 8 of the 9 participants having won Grade 1 races in their career (only Champion Court has failed to do so, but 3 of his 5 career victories have been at Grade 2 level). As there are a lot of horses closely matched on ratings, it may well pay to look at which of the contenders is likely to be best suited by the course and going. The 3 horses vying for favouritism are very hard to split but I might just give preference to Dynaste due to his course form. He got into a lovely rhythm here last year in the Feltham and I think King George winners tend to be horses who can go round this flat, sharpish track in a nice rhythm. The only other C&D winner in the field, Long Run. is clearly best watched so its Dynaste for me.
Can someone help me please? I have an email telling me that I've got a £10 free bet at William Hill. Who should i bet on or should i just use it on bingo?
- Aged 6 or 7 - French bred - Has run 1 to 3 times this season - Won last time out in the past 40 days (posting RPR of 170+) - Won over 3M+ - Won 2 or more Grade 1 chases - Previously finished 1st or 2nd over this CD - Finished in first 3 in last season’s King George and/or Gold Cup or - Second season chaser who placed in 2013 Arkle or RSA Chase - Finished in first 3 in the 2013 Betfair Chase - Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson - From first 2 in the betting (priced no bigger than 8/1) (2nd fav, 7/2)
- Aged 6 or 7 - French bred - Has run 1 to 3 times this season - Won last time out in the past 40 days (posting RPR of 170+) - Won over 3M+ - Won 2 or more Grade 1 chases - Previously finished 1st or 2nd over this CD - Finished in first 3 in last season’s King George and/or Gold Cup or - Second season chaser who placed in 2013 Arkle or RSA Chase - Finished in first 3 in the 2013 Betfair Chase - Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson - From first 2 in the betting (priced no bigger than 8/1) (2nd fav, 7/2) But for the Gold Cup slip, he looked good for a place in the Gold Cup too, so Silviniaco Conti looked one for the stats in this race and duly obliged.
