I'm amazed that with all the threads on other races at Royal Ascot no one has put up a thread for this race, afterall it is the main race of the week, and it's a pretty strong renewal! It's a 4 horse race realy So You Think 1/2 Planteur 7/2 Rewilding 9/1 Twice Over 10/1 The Jolly does look hard to oppose, but I would be wary of lumping on him at 1/2, afterall this is his first start against proper G1 horses over in Europe, the Tatts Gold Cup was not a strong race, so we still don't know for certain how the Aussie form is going to stack up over here. He does look very good and he may well prove to be a cut above on the day, but he's to short for me. It's ashame Workforce didn't take up his entry for this race, as we may have got a decent price about So You Think! My selection if forced for one would be Twice Over, he's consistant and runs to a high standard every time he runs, even though he's voulnerable to a horse of real quality, I think he will be there to pick up 1st place if the favourite doesn't fire
In regards So You Think, I was wondering if Cyc could try to suggest whether soft ground in Australia would be similar to ground with soft in its name over here. He has watched more of our racing than I have theirs (Melbourne Cup is my only race really) so would be fascinating to hear whether he thinks our softish ground could be a problem for the 'monster'. Also do you think it was the ground or trip that cost him in the Melbourne Cup when beaten by the reasonable Americain (only giving 3lbs too). I am wary to back at odds on against a horse like Twice Over. He to me looks the best alternative, but will we get enough runners to make anything bar a win bet viable?
I think that if SYT is as good as the world says he is,and lets be honest he looks a machine.I think 1-2 could be the bet of the week if you look at Frankel being 1-3.I know who i would lump on if i had to choose. Twice over,as you say has always been vulnerable to a top class horse. Rewilding,10f looks to short for him and i think he lacks class anyway. Planteur,is the most interesting runner.He looks to have improved since last year.And his cosy victory over Sarafina reads very well as she is certainly no back number.
I fancy either Rewilding or Twice over. Havent 100% made my mind up yet. How can you say he lacks class hes won a handful of listed races, ran well in the derby last year and he won his last G1 race in meydan, yes the field wasnt the greatest, but with Frankie on top stands every chance. He came 2nd to planteur again a while ago (2 years ago I think) but again that wasnt with frankie and the horse would have matured and I think will get the better of Planteur and I he has won over 1m (I know a while ago ) and he won last year over 1m and 3f last year at Goodwood. So I dont think the distance will prove too much of a problem. Twice Over- Now this horse is my proper bogey horse- I think he has been quite unlucky e.g. dubai world cup - unlucky draw plus everytime I bet on him he looses lol. He is a class horse and definately has the potential to win, has won over this distance plenty of times! if he is leading with 1f out I think he will be very difficult to pass plus tom queally knows the horse very well too. I agree with shergar it is a shame workforce didnt go in to this race, my money would have gone straight on him, but as of yet it will be between these two, I just dont fancy the first 2 in the SP 1/2 is way to short.
If the Aussies are going to win anything at Royal Ascot it will probably be the sprint (again). So You Think is an odds-on favourite purely on hype as the form of the Tattersalls Gold Cup does not make him any sort of shoe-in. Starspangledbanner was supposedly the “fastest horse” last year but it did not clean up the sprinting division, got floored by a 100/1 shot at York and was unplaced in the Haydock Sprint Cup. I will believe So You Think is invincible when I see it. Until then, I oppose it.
I think it will be very ground dependant. If SYT doesnt win it will be on the two above I have mentioned, but i am still gonna go for one of the other two as 1/2 is a bit short for me, you have more to loose than win on a horse not really that tested imo and on the going too, im not so sure!
Planteur, Twice Over and Rewilding are all good horses but So You Think is exceptional. The ground is of little concern to me because he has shown he is capable of dealing with anything from soft to firm. He is short but there is a very good reason for that; it's because he's easily the best horse in the race. Planteur has developed into something of a 10f specialist but he wasn't even able to prove himself the best of his generation in France with Lope De Vega beating him in the Prix Du Jockey Club. Twice Over is another 10f specialist but he has been exposed at the very top level on more than one occasion. Rewilding would surely prefer 12f. I think that the Aussie monster will destroy this field and he can finally get a chance to prove the doubters wrong. I truely believe that he is one of the very best i have ever seen and that will prove more than good enough against this field. So You Think to win and to win easily.
Just been watching Aiden O'Brien's Ascot preview on ATR and he has the following to say about So You Think: "He's had two easy runs and we'd been just playing with him at home for his first two starts but his works stepped up a little bit more serious since". He looks very good already so the thought that there may be improvement to come is pretty frightening. I can't wait to see him run.
He hasn't beaten anything yet, this will be his first test and whilst I expect him to pass, I am wary of his price being too short.
He might not have beaten much in Ireland but he has destroyed them in impressive fashion. However he has treated very good fields in Australia with a similar level of contempt. I am quite sure that Cyc can provide greater detail on the horses he has beaten.
He lost to Americain giving him 3lbs and through Descaro he is about 5 lengths better than Harris Tweed, its hardly the best form in the world. His highest RPR is 129 whilst Twice Over's is 127, hardly the sort of view that makes the 1/2 look value. As stated I think he will prove too good, I think the price is absolutely dreadful.
His loss to Americain was in the Mlebourne Cup. It was a full 6 furlongs further than he had ever run before and he had won two Group 1s in the previous 10 days. I think there were valid excuses. I may be wrong, but i am confident that this horse is a monster.
The other horse who's price I also feel is far to short is Planteur, I just can't work out what he's acheived over 10 furlongs, that warrants him being so much shorter than Twice Over. Maybe his price is due to the success the French have had in this race in recent years, winning 3 of the last 4 runnings of this race. Anyways it does seem that the majority of us believe So You Think is to short, so maybe be will drift out on the day to a price some of us may be tempted by
Yes the fact that the French have a great recent record counts for something.And I guess if you take a form line through Cape Blanco,Planteur has the beating of Twice Over reasonably comfortably.Plus Planteur is very much a horse in form, you couldn't exactly say the same about Twice Over, albeit he had a bad draw in the Dubai World cup and then he ran over an inadequate distance last time out. There's a lot to be said for horses on a roll against horses that aren't.
DBF....I don't think Cape Blanco is a reliable formline to compare the 2, we all know how inconsistant he's been, lookat his last visit to France in the French Derby. If we took the formline then Twice Over would be 7 lenghs worse than Planteur and 6 lenghs worse than Sarafina, as would RVW, that is just unrealistic! At the end of the day Twice Over is a duel champion stakes winner, yet he still rarely gets the respect his ability deserves in the betting, so I'm quite happy to take the decent prices on offer everytime he runs
Fantastic racing. It doesn't matter where you are on the globe, if you can't appreciate Royal Ascot, you'll never appreciate racing anywhere. It's been a long wait for us Aussies. The sale of So You Think caused a real stir here, we wanted him to travel, but in the hands of Cummimgs. But I have to admit, AOB seems to have the horse firing on all cylinders. We've known for a long while that out sprinters are as good as can be found, but we've always felt that our stayers were not given the credit they were due. SYT is exceptional, but I firmly believe we can send across a hand full of stayers each year, as we do with sprinters. They won't be as good as SYT, but they will be genuine G1 horses. Nass, the track conditions between our two countries is like chalk and cheese. You guys seem to really get into the turf. I think it takes a different kind of animal to win in the mud over there, than what it does here. Because of the nature of our climate, we tend to just about always race on top of the ground. Hard ground. That's one of the reasons why we've been able to breed speed. And we tend to race differently. You guys steadily increase the tempo, spitting them out the back, the further you go. It's a real test of stamina. We tend to get out more quickly, sit mid race, then sprint home. This applies to both staying and sprinting. We win here, you win there...most of the time. I can't see SYT being beaten tomorrow. (hope like crazy) I heard on the radio that the track looks better than first thought. The drier it becomes, the better SYT will go. He will get through the ground though, but I wouldn't want the sky to open. The class of horse he's beaten in Oz is first rate. Of course there is no way of comparing the levels of racing, but we have faith in our staying product. Hopefully, SYT will open the door for other stayers in the next few years. I find it impossible to believe that trainers are not thinking seriously about it right now.
I said I GUESS if you took a form line through CB.I didnt say its a reliable form line. But a tenuous form line is better than none at all. Anyway, we will see tomorrow.
"So You Think he is good" Nope he's just highlighted how average the middle distance horses are in Australia. Glad I wasn't sold enough on the hype, to steam into him. Rewilding looks a serious Animal when fresh that's for sure, they should skip the KG and keep him fresh for the Arc
