It's a great debate and well done folks for sticking to your guns but also doing it with respect. Tremendous stuff. For what its worth, I was actually think the market is an overreaction on The New One because I am not convinced his demolition of Rock On Ruby was against a 100% fit horse or one that suits a track like KEmpton- he was beaten by Binocular there in the Christmas hurdle a couple of seasons back. Equally, we know Zarkandars level over 2m now. However, I do like what Joe has said- sometimes you can just see class. The great thing about him is that not only does he have the burst of speed, he stays the trip extremely, extremely well and his Cheltenham form is solid. Hurricane Fly remains an enigma for me, which I know the Irish faithful, especially top posters like Beefy, must tear their hair out at listening to such nonsense. His defeat of Oscar Whisky and Peddlers Cross does not look good any more. One was caught in between trips, the other went AWOL having tried chasing. His victory last year, against the winner of a poor Triumph hurdle in Countrywide Flame, and Rock On Ruby- having to make his own running and blinkered- just doesn't stand up either. But regardless, he was THE best hurdler in those years, fact. And by a fair margin. It is his Irish form for me where he looks his best. However, he beat Solwhit 4 times (with a rare 3rd where Solwhit reversed form and he also finished behind Muirhead), with many of those races including Thousand Stars and Voler La Vedette. He has beaten Thousand Stars ELEVEN times. However, a counter argument could be that some of the future Grade One winners since from the races he has raced in are Thousand Stars, Zarkandar, Go Native, Oscar Whiskey, Zaidpour, Riverside Theatre (chase). The debate really is whether or not the likes of The New One, Our Conor, My Tent Or Yours, or Jezki are a fair bit better than any of those. If Hurricane beats all of them this year I will tip my hat. I just hope its steady, good to soft ground and no extreme soft (as then we would be using that as an excuse if he hammered them!) and that the best horse wins. This Our Conor still might be anything too- he looked like he had a lovely rhythm for hurdling and perhaps he can do them all. Personally I'm in the camp of The New One although I would play him on the day now (barring a hike in price if he gets nabbed by MTOY at Christmas) as I can't back antepost at those sorts of odds now (3/1). It's a potentially fantastic race. Hope it's a great one because the sport is crying out for it.
Great quick review toppy! I think you are 100% correct on the overreaction of the TNO's win asl altho he has the Cheltenham form, I just feel he lacks that top hurdling speed that, The Hurricane & MTOY have! Jezki is the weakest opposition to the Champ of the quartet. I cant see him reversing the form of MTOY in the supreme and his won the other day was all but comfortable - and if AP picks him come the day I will be very suprised!! Our Conor- As you say toppy can be anything. He will need to put another performance like the Triumphone to sway my head, but he seeemed to get up the hill easily enough but when under pressure is a different story! My Tent Or Yours- the #1 contender of the new lot- I feel if anyone is going to de-throne The Fly it will be him- I am fan of his and he does seem to have the change of gear which could take any horse out the frame and The Fly will have to be 100% come theday to beat him and with him the likely him likely to be APS choice unless he gives him a ride like he did to Binocular 2yrs ago his current odds of 4/1 e/w may be a good bet to nothing. The New One- Very classy horse and on his day could give anyone a race but he just seems to be a little slow (I know I will get some pelters) but just dont think he has that gear change as and when some of the others turn it on! Hurricane Fly- The one they all to have beat!! But just hope all have a chance going over the final hurdle with ideally Hurricane Fly edging up the hill to take the honours. Eitherway a mouth watering contest in which I will be there for!!!
I'm also loving this thread Toppy, I don't rip my hair out at all reading anything here (or elsewhere for that matter!), if we all agreed on everything it would be a very boring forum! You clearly know your stuff and spend time (probably more than me) reading form very successfully and are therefore most welcome to share your well written and knowledgeable posts. I enjoy your posts very much as you provide balanced reasoning with superb analysis. You know your apples from your oranges. The great thing a forum does is allow us all to chip in with opinions and sometimes we agree, but often we differ. The nature of all sports, and maybe racing in particular, is we all look at things from different perspectives which means that we can all pick holes in any horse's career or legacy. I'll give some examples to illustrate. Some may crib the campaigning of the champion Frankel for having had three seasons of all home matches. Some frown upon him for having never even attempting a single middle distance race, like the Arc or Derby, despite being a Galileo. Best Mate is a treble Gold Cup winner but could be questioned for having been seen twice, or if you're really lucky, three times a year having reigned in a period of mediocrity. Big Bucks is nothing more than a failed chaser, right?! (In every sport people question the very best: that Vettel bloke obviously only wins because he's in the fastest car.) Are people right to doubt or question the merits of these wonderful champions of the sport we enjoy? Are these doubts even valid when discussing horses with these credentials, rewriting history books along the way? Of course people are right and entitled. Absolutely, we can question what we wish that's what the forums for. So we should not apologise for our honest opinions. I'm a Hurricane Fly card carrying fan and my signature probably gives a subtle hint to this. I believe two Champion Hurdles says it all and there's little doubt Cheltenham appears his least effective track. To have won two Champions at the track you don't really like is staggering if you actually think about it. I won't list the horses he's beaten but it's safe to say that, up until this season, the Fly has met everything that's been around and each and every one has been beaten hollow. Just to prove it wasn't a fluke he's usually beat them more than once. He's won a shedload of top races, albeit some were weak but whose 'fault' is that?! In simplistic terms to get a horse good enough to compete in a Grade One race is difficult, to win one is harder, to show the longevity to complete and win multiple ones over five and six years takes an exceptional one. Without question his name will go down as one of the greats whether people on Not606 Racing Forum question him or not. Our opinions are relatively unimportant in the history of the sport. Setting aside his legacy and looking at the present I think this year he'll struggle. He's now in his sixth consecutive year competing at this level over jumps alone. He's been racing since he was 2 years old, he's now turning 10. In respect of his first run of the year frankly it was very disappointing. He'll improve but I doubt he'll improve the 20+lbs he'll need to win another Champion Hurdle against the up and comers. The younger legs will probably do him and then the focus will turn on them to see what their legacy holds for them, and the debates will continue on and on...
Beefy, point taken in your love for the Fly, I don't think anyone would say anything bad about him in all that he has done in his career, it speaks for its self... And opinions are whats needed to make a good and sound debate, but... I know that his career started out with the idea of going chasing and he obviously didn't take to it with much promise, and so they took him hurdling and he became one of the best hurdlers over 3m... But would that be like me saying that the owners have played it safe with the Fly by NOT trying him chasing, or have they played it safe in the knowledge that he would just clean up at one distance - (only once has he run further than 2m1f, all the rest have been 2m or 2m1f...) I suppose it is what you have in front of you that determines where you send a horse, but the cream always rises to the top as they say and both the Fly and Big Bucks certainly have... Good points though...
If all the main protagonists turn up fit and well it may turn into a battle of nerve and timing for the jockeys. Generally all of them prefer to cruise up on the bridal approaching the last and then go for home - it could get pretty crowded jumping the last if the same tactics are produced. TNO hit the front too early last Saturday and I think Ruby said after this year's Champion Hurdle that he hit the front 2 furlongs too soon - credit to the horses for battling up the hill and still getting the win. Is there a case for one of the market leaders to try and stretch them out from 2-3 out or will it be a case of who plays their hand at the last minute gets the win??
Also with MTOY looking the winner going over the last in the Supreme but getting outpointed up the hill - do you think a change of tactics could be required to get the upper hand against the rest, possibly try and steal a couple of lengths turning for home??
I think a good strong pace will suit the Fly. They tried to run the finish out of him in last season's race but he came back on the bridle coming round the final bend and showed the best turn of foot up the hill. MTOY cruised into contention in the Supreme but didn't have the turn of foot to get past Champagne Fever. The New One's turn of foot in the Neptune was impressive, but as Bob has said, the form is looking suspect and he could well have been passing trees.
This is a great thread People have only to see my sig to know where my loyalties lie. I bet on Our Conor and changed to that sig in March after witnessing him demolish the Triumph field. It true that not many Triumph winners go on to win the CH next year, but that's not to say it has never happened, or can again. Picking up on Boris's remark that "jumps form is meaningless" then asks "what did Our Conor beat" Apparently it doesn't matter as form is meaningless! "you can't read class, you see class" I agree Boris, and I know what I saw at Cheltenham in March. I can understand the confidence behind TNO's supporters - I too was impressed with his runs this season, but you can ask questions about both - Rock On Ruby is seemingly now regarded as a chaser, and surely Zarkandar will never be asked to run less than 20f ever again? The Fly is a hero, and a legend, but in 2m hurdle races, where the emphasis is on speed, I can't accept that he hasn't lost a little at pushing 10 years. The stats bear out the dominance of the younger brigade, and although older horses have and do win occasionally, it's very much the exception, not the rule. The one worry for me and MY champion, is what has/is wrong with Our Conor, that he hasn't had an outing yet. It seems he may take on the Fly at Leopardstown at the end of the month, so I hope that happens. No prizes for guessing where my shilling will be going
Some very good points made on this thread. I think MTOY will do the business in the Champion Hurdle this year. As you pointed out I can see McCoy coming there at the last on the bridle along with the Fly and the New One but MTOY kicking on and winning in good style. I would rather have MCCoy on board than Twiston Davies for one. I also believe had MTOY settled better in last years Supreme he would have been a lot closer to Champagne Fever who I believe is a horse massively suited to Cheltenham and will win the Arkle if he turns up for it. Another year on and a stronger MTOY and I think his win will also be dedicated to Darlan who so tragically lost his life last season. He is following that same path too..
Will be interesting to see Bob.... I know people say that MTOY isnt really suited to Cheltenham and a flat track bully and that but I cant help get excited when I see that horse cruise - just oozes class. I would also say Hurricane Fly is not the best suited to Cheltenham but look what he has achieved. If I recall McCoy was virtually saying My Tent or Yours was his banker for the festival this year so that just makes me more confident......
The Fly is the best horse in 20 years and MTOY is just another McManus jolly. I wouldn't take any notice of what that camp say is their banker.
Update 27th December: My Tent Or Yours and The New One fought out a pulsating Christmas Hurdle at Kempton yesterday with MTOY prevailing by half a length after a poor jump at the last by The New One. After much pre-race discussion on tactics (not least by Sam Twiston-Davies), The New One kicked on coming off the final bend in an attempt to blunt MTOY's finishing speed. But AP McCoy was wise to the move and slipstreamed The New One, saving valuable energy for the fight to the line. McCoy pulled his mount out to challenge at the last hurdle, still half a length down, but whereas MTOY hurdled the obstacle fluently, The New One crashed through it. Although the mistake didn't initially seem to cost him much ground, it did cost him valuable momentum and MTOY swept past on the short run-in to win the race. Whether the race came too soon after the International, whether different tactics would have provided a different result, the facts today were that MTOY won fair and square. The pair are now vying for favouritism at 3/1 ahead of the Irish trio Our Conor (5/1), Hurricane Fly (6/1) and Jezki (8/1) who meet in a cracking renewal of the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday. Outside of those top 5, the market looks a little thin with a number of Mullins horses destination unknown and several listed in the betting having already jumped a fence in public, but what a top 5 we have this time around and at the moment a case can be made for any of the 5 winning.
This race for me all boils down to the flys performance on Sunday at leps.dhe didnt run to expectations lto and is up against a potential superstar in our Connor.fascinating contest and I'll be there hoping the fly shows he's still the boss!
Interesting couple of races for the front five in the market. The Fly reigns imperious in Ireland. McCoy seemed bewildered as to how he can beat him when interviewed post race. If you want to crab it you could say he's better at Leps than Cheltenham. I don't 100% buy into that but it's a reasonable point to make and you can see basis for the comment. Our Connor is far more interesting than Jezki because of likely improvement as he ages but for me, you are clutching at straws. The Fly's too good for these if he gets to the Festival 100% fit. He'll definitely improve for today. MTOY and The New One met at Kempton in a thriller on Boxing Day. These two are capable of winning an average renewal. There's much debate about which is the better horse. I don't know. The New One will stay well enough up the hill. There's question marks about whether MTOY will. On the other hand MTOY could use that speed and get first run and it may not matter about how well he stays. Personally, I thought he did stay in last years Supreme but was beaten by a Cheltenham specialist. As mentioned, McCoy seems devoid of confidence about how to beat the Fly. I assume he'll ride MTOY because he now knows Jezki is inferior. The possibility remains that MTOY could beat the Champ. As admitted by a few decent judges on here and elsewhere who support TNO, you can't make a case for TNO based on the form of any race he participated in last season. His rating of 167 is frankly ludicrous. That being said I agree just because he's beaten absolutely nothing doesn't mean he's an overrated animal. He could be Pegasus. I think if he was that good it would not have mattered about the track on Boxing Day. He'd have dismissed MTOY whatever the circumstances and he didn't. To sum up, at this stage: Jezki - almost no chance of winning the race. Our Connor - again, almost no chance of winning but may improve with another year on his back. MTOY - a contender who is capable of challenging for the win. Question marks about track remain but riding style could be very important and if he gets first run in March and opens up 3 lengths lead coming to the hill he could win. The New One - overrated but a challenger who could use that stamina to charge up the Hill and win the race. Must show considerable improvement or capitalise on a below par run from The Fly who we know is capable of doing it. Hurricane Fly - Will have to under perform or encounter traffic problems to lose as things stand.
Perfectly summed up in my opinion. I know TNO fans will probably argue but other than that you'd be hard pushed to find a good argument against the points raised here
12yo Captain Cee Bee beaten 9 1/2 lengths, Our Conor found nothing and Jezki got outpaced. I doubt Team Twiston-Davies are overly concerned. The New One and My Tent have pulled 30 lengths clear of a horse rated 150, who ran second in the Greatwood off 144 giving a stone to a handicap goodthing, 43 lengths clear of a horse who beat last years Champion hurdle 3rd in the Grade 1 Aintree Juvenile. Theyve done it off a slow pace, with The New One having to do his own donkey work from a long way out. Captain Cee Bee went off like a scolded cat and gave them all a lovely lead to the second last but still only finished 3 1/2 behind Our Conor, that sort of form might have been up to winning the last few weak renewals of the Champion Hurdle but I can assure you the two English horses are taking it to another level. My Tent may have beaten Jezki the same distance as Hurricane Fly did today, but Jezki now wouldnt get within 5 lengths of My Tent now. The Kempton race sets the standard by a comfortable margin and thats the why the bookies still have The New One and My Tent as first and second in the betting.
