Currently 10 horses declared for the race which is run over 2 miles 4 furlongs at Punchestown on Sunday and Bet 365 price it up as follows: Flemenstar 6/4 Sir Des Champs 9/4 Arvika Ligeonniere 5/2 Oscars Well 14/1 Toner D'Oudaires, Texas Jack 16/1 Roi Du Mee, Lyreen Legend 20/1 Realt Mor 25/1 Rubi Light 33/1 With Flemenstar less than convincing on his debut and Sir Des Champs likely to need the run and a good deal further, this looks like a tremendous opportunity for Arvika Ligeonniere to add to his Grade 1 Novice wins with a first Grade 1 win in open company. I like the look of 5/2 and, unless Flemenstar is back to his dazzling best (which is a big if), Willie Mullins charge looks the one to beat. Thoughts??
I hope Flemenstar puts in an electric performance and wins this so there is added juice to Sir Des Champs antepost for the Gold Cup. Flemenstar was very flat on comeback but clearly had a tonne up its sleeve especially jumping. 9/4 Sir Des Champs will tempt many and if Flemenstar and Arvika go at it up front then he could pick up the pieces with a strong finish. 6/4 Flemenstar is a big price if he is near his best.
I think the prices will look a lot better on race day. Flemenstar wouldn't have looked out of place pulling carriages when he was last seen, clearly far from fit and carrying a ton of extra weight around. At this distance I would be all over him to get the better of Arvika. SDC is a horse I absolutely love and will no doubt back again for the gold cup but will be avoiding at 2 and a half mile, possibly even 3m against Flemanstar(Lexus chase)
Interestingly, quite a few of these horses here are also entered in the Hilly Way at Cork the same day. I like the conqueror of Oscars Well in this one - the Mullins trained Twinlight, but don't know what to make of the same trainer's entry of Arvika, in both races. This race hasn't been priced up yet but if Flem, Arvika, SDC and the Elliot horses go for the Durkan race, then Twinlight will be a very short order.
I think this is the race, in fact the season, where Flemenstar has to do the talking on track. Last year we heard a lot from his colourful trainer and the media certainly played their part in bigging him up and it certainly looked justified up until the last in the Lexus! An enigima of a horse I certainly didn't view his comeback as terrible as some did- he travelled lovely, pulled away from a half decent animal on the run-in and looked to idle somewhat in front. His jumping was downright weird though, but he did balloon one or two last year in races so may just have been freshness who knows? He has to win this and win it well if he's anything like the horse many of us hoped he was last year. SDC probably won't be half fit and Arvika Ligeonnaire is a good horse, but not exceptional, and if the Flemenstar camp have aspirations on bigger pots they'll have to beat him well I'd have thought. From a betting perspective 6/4 is awful value in my view, about 5 books have him that price at the minute, should be closer to the 2s mark assuming Willie runs both his, which seems the plan. Certainly a race to watch with great interest.
Final decs are Arvika Flemenstar Sir Des Champs Rubi Light What a line up. So glad the three big players take their chance.
Well a nice little race, but the main word here is little. Still intriguing, but as with today's 3 horse race it will be decided most likely by riding tactics. The result of these decs, has, as I surmised, left Twinlight in the Hilly Way at Cork, a miserable 6-4 on.
Doubt i will bet on the race, but i would be on Sir Des Champs. I know a few will be on to say the trip is far from ideal and he's a thorough stayer but i think he's adept at 2.4. The way Flemenstar has been handled has ruined his appetite for the game, and until he proves his liking for the jumps i will be taking him on at short prices.
25/1 against the big 3 falling. Can't see that happening and certainly hope not. I wouldn't even take 25/1 for the outsider to finish within 10l of the winner. These bookies don't take any chances do they?
I was thinking something similar about the Henry VIII Ron. Seven runners and 5 of them 7's or less. Pathetic.
Fooking hell, 3 runners now - Rubi Light who is hopelessly out of form, Sir Des Champs over an inadequate trip on seasonal debut and the likely winner Arvika Ligeonniere who is now best priced 8/11. Wish I'd taken that 5/2 I wrote about in the original article.
becomes a betting proposition for me now. Will be going on Sir Des at 15/8 vC for a substantial bet now.
