I've been reading the Pink Un messageboard and one guy on there called aiming for the top ten 'delusional'. Is it? I'd say there is definitely a hard core of six - MU, MC, Chelski, Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs - who form a party we are never going to gatecrash. Add Everton possibly to that list. After that, I'd argue it was all pretty much up for grabs. This year Newcastle and Southampton are doing well, Villa and Swansea looking secure, and the rest in the mix for the drop. But longer term I see no reason why we shouldn't aim for top ten. Wondered what people on here think.
A club is limited by their budget, whilst there's some potential to over/under-achieve, league position isn't going to be too different to financial position. Budget to me is a function of money put in by a rich owner, ticket sales, merchandise and tv revenue. We've got the 14th biggest stadium (so you'd assume the 14th biggest ticket sales), 11th in the league gave us a pretty much average TV income, and I suspect we're down on merchandise as we won't have the worldwide appeal of better established clubs. In 11-12 our turnover was 12th in the league, so to me that's probably a reasonable estimate of our current potential. Balanced against that is the value of the playing squad, where we're currently 17th in the league. So right now I'd say 17th is an average finish, but if we continue as we are, the investment in the playing squad should make 12th a reasonable finishing position. Can we go further than that? From the same years figures we made £11m from a 27k capacity stadium. Expanding to 35k would then hopefully make that figure £14.3m, which would equal Sunderland's gate receipts, and beat most of the bottom half of the current table. That still leaves us well short of Villa, Newcastle and Everton who make £20m+ that way. Coupled with the better league finishes (tv revenue), and commercial income, that's your top 9 in the league sorted unless something goes wrong for one of them. So with stadium expansion and squad investment we've probably got the ability to finish top 10, assuming nobody grows faster than us. It'd take a good season for us and poor ones for others to really get much higher.
I agree with DH, premier league clubs are totally governed by money, which is why the top 6 will remain pretty constant, with the odd surprise. So where we are is about par currently. We are finally the emulating the charlton model that the board so coveted. Their fans wanted a new manager because they were fed up of bottom half finishes, and wanted more. Look at what they got, maybe others should take heed?
I don't think that a top 10 finish is unattainable, although this year as long as we don't get relegated I'd be happy. I think the signings we made this year are good signings and the squad has improved significantly. Unfortunately performances so far this season don't really support my view. Some of the players that have served us well since our championship days & some fans favorites will need to go before next season and be replaced with further quality signings if we are looking to become a top 10 side. Going forward I think the key players for us over the next few years will be Ruddy, Ryan Bennett, Fer, Howson, Redmond, Olson, RVW & Hooper. Players that we need to lose & replace with better quality players are Hoolahan, Martin, Pilkington, Becchio, Elmander (Loan)
After the West Ham game I managed to get into the Directors Lounge and thankfully I heard Delia say that our number one aim is still just to stay in the League , no ideas above our station, one step at a time. Sense there our financial base still not strong enough to push up the division into top half so survival for a few years in the big money division has to be the aim before pandering to the fans egos
The pink´un poster is absolutely right imo, for the foreseeable future we should only realistically expect to be a lower-mid or at best, mid-table club. As canario points out above, we have too many players who would be good in the Championship, but are only average in the Premier League, they just can´t perform at a high enough level, week in week out. That´s not a criticism of Hughton or his scouting team, because they are slowly trying to lift the standard of incoming players, but it takes a lot more time than some people realise, and a lot more time than some people are prepared to give him. We ought to be able to establish ourselves, during the next few years, as a lower mid-table club, as long as the influx of better quality players continues, but we´re not the only ones looking to bring in better players, so it´s not going to be easy. Survival as first priority, will still be with us for several years yet, and can we manage that , and end mid-table-ish, we all ought to be satisfied.
It really depends upon the spread of the table,Last season there was a gap of just 7 points between Sunderland in 18th and Swansea in 9th,so top ten isn't much of a stretch.The previous season it was ten points between 18th (QPR) and WBA in 10th.2010/11 it was Wolves in 18th and 9 points to Fulham in 9th. Realistically this can be accounted for by the difference in luck over a season.(Luck averages out long term but as we can see this season it's big factor.Without it Stoke would be bottom three ATM)
Some really good points made on this thread. Ambition tempered with realism. I think our biggest risk is actually losing some of the players we hope to be building our team around over the next 3-4 years. If we're struggling this season and taking heavy beatings every now and again, are the likes of Ruddy, Fer and van Wolfspenis going to hang around?
We are currently a bottom 6 side for me and the only way we can improve is simply by staying in the league to be able to buy better players (despite allegedly doing that this season). Other factors also influence such as our geographical location. There may be other reasons but many players we did target ( Toivenen, Quagliarella and Alderweireld) did not want to come. Why? no European football prospect realistically yes, Money, likely, manger not attractive, possibly or did they see a team that would be probable relegation candidates in their eyes?
Good points raised but no-one's mentioned a cup run, I'm not sure if that was in the equation. These days, winning a cup means entry into the Europa League and hinderence for the following season. There have been some good moments so far but more poor ones recently. Injuries haven't helped and I just hope we are on at least 38 points by game 34.
I think judgements have been clouded this year by club chairman Alan Bowkett going public with the statement that "after finishes of 12th followed by 11th, we see 10th as realistic this year". To many 'fans' - more on the Pink Un than on here, perhaps, this became the new mantra to be chanted and adhered to religiously all season. Heaping yet more pressure on the players and coaching team in addition to an already difficult fixture list not helping much.
Thanks everyone for making this an interesting thread and not just a reprise of the Hughton in/Hughton out theme that runs through almost all the threads. Personally I haven't a clue what exactly is realistic, although, right or wrong, I feel we are under-achieving at the moment.
'Tis too subjective and changes with the wind In August, realistic may have been 10th-12th. Today could be anywhere from 20th to about mid-table. A win today could move the goalposts yet again
I'm not actually too worried about that, as if they do move on, it'll be for significant sums of money. With his new contract signed, I can't see Ruddy going for much less than £10m, which would make him one of the most expensive 'keepers around, plenty enough to bring in a keeper of similar quality, but perhaps one with maybe 5 years or career left rather than 10. If our scouting team continue to find bargains like Fer (which granted is quite an ask), if bigger clubs want to take our players for large sums, then ideally we can import slightly better quality from abroad.
I agree with this, apart from Pilkington. Injuries aside, I think he's brilliant and when in form can win matches on his own. Two footed, is one of our few forwards that can retain possession and find a pass.
For me I don't think it's so much about where we finish this season (as long as it isn't in the zone) but where we average across a number of seasons and that we improve steadily over time and that's why I believe we will play the long game with Hughton. I will personally be happy if we secure another season of Premier League football before our deadly run of games at the season's end.
I agree, I here this statement pulled out of context a lot, his point was that our goal but not our expectation, the position we have budgeted for is 16th anything above that is fantastic.
I'm happy with good football and interesting games with ambitions to entertain, and a couple of upsets a season. What I don't want is stoic resistance and **** movement. I'm presently out of luck.
It's funny, but I've just read through this in the context of today's win. Suddenly everything looks quite different. Next week's game will of course still be important, but hopefully the players will feel less pressure and express themselves more. An away win makes such a difference. My target before the season started was 10th place - what we should be aiming for. Even before today's game I said I'd stick with that and I do, but 17 points from 15 games makes it look much more likely now. Yes, Carrabuh will go on grumbling about the way we play, but considering the 6 injuries, today was a performance of great character (something Mr Grumble doesn't rate - tackling is another). A bad day for the 'outers', but a hell of a good one for everyone else! OTBC!
