Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 0-0-3 6yo: 3-8-23 7yo: 5-7-58 8yo: 1-3-30 9yo: 1-6-43 10yo: 0-3-15 11yo+: 0-1-6 6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-15-81) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-13-96). Diamond Edge in 1981 is only horse aged over 9 to have won this in the last 40 years while Denman (in 2009) is the only horse aged older than 8 to have won this in past 10 years, when winning it for second time. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 7-10-47 Horses carrying less than 11-0: 3-18-130 Higher weights hold the call in this with 6 of the last 8 winners all carrying 11-4 or more, in 2 other years there have only been 3 horses carrying 11-0+, 2 of those 3 were placed. Top Weight: F91P1313P2 (3-3-10) has gained 3 wins and 3 places in last 7 years, though Denman has twice carried top weight to victory, which slightly skews the top weight statistic. Official Ratings Horses rated 153 or higher: 4-9-33 Horses rated 136 to 152: 6-13-116 Horses rated 126 to 135: 0-6-28 The last 8 winners were officially rated 145 or higher. Horses rated 160+ have gained 3 wins & 2 places from 12 runners. Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ (exception was placed in previous year's Hennessy) 9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start 10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 139+ on last completed start (7 posted RPR of 156+) 7 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 chases (3 exceptions finished in first 6 in a previous renewal) 8 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their chase starts 8 of 10 winners had run in 0 or 1 previous handicap chases 10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences 8 of 10 winners (last 6) had won a graded chase 6 of 10 winners were second season chasers 6 of 10 winners (last 6) had won a chase over 2M4F or further at Newbury (other 4 were having first chase start here) Other Races RSA Chase winner (Lord Windermere): F11P1 (3-0-5) Highest placed RSA finisher to run in this: F161P22P1 (3-2-9) Better Prices on Betfair Novice Chase winner (Unioniste): P110 (2-0-4) Weatherite Novices' Chase winner (Ackertac): 1P00 (1-0-4) Ryman Stationery Novices' Chase winner (Highland Lodge): F3U2 (0-2-4) Betfred Mobile Lotto Novices' Chase winner (Rocky Creek): 2P (0-1-2) Previous year's Rising Star Novice Chase winner (Houblon Des Obeaux): F4 (0-1-2) Bet365 Gold Cup winner (Quentin Collonges): 672 (0-1-3) Previous Worcester Nov Chase winner (Harry Topper): 350 (0-1-3) Previous season's Rewards4Racing Novices' Chase winner (Our Father): 4PPP (0-1-4) Reynoldstown Novices' Chase winner (Rocky Creek): P7P2 (0-1-4) Scottish National winner (Godsmejudge): 05 (0-0-2) Kim Muir Handicap Chase winner (Same Difference): 06 (0-0-2) Grimthorpe Chase winner (Quentin Collonges): 850 (0-0-3) Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Terminal): PFP (0-0-3) Towton Novice Chase winner (Goulanes): 68P (0-0-3) Cotswold Chase winner (Cape Tribulation): 807P (0-0-4) 4 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in RSA Chase last time, finishing 11P1 3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous season's Feltham, finishing 253 2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Better Prices on Betfair Novice Chase, finishing 11 2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 11 2 of 3 fourth season chaser winners ran in RSA as novices, finishing 14 Running Style 8 of 10 winners (last 8) raced in touch or with the leaders throughout Trainers Paul Nicholls (3-6-24) has won the race 3 times in past 10 years, including twice with Denman (07 & 09) and may have won it a fourth time but for Big Buckâs unseating 2 out in 2008. Nicky Henderson (2-3-11) saddled the winner in 2005 & 2012 and the placed finisher in 2006 & 2010. David Pipe (1-3-9) trained a winner and 3 placed finishers in past 6 years. Philip Hobbs (0-3-12) last trained the winner in 2001 and trained 2nd & 3rd in 2011. Price 9 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter No massive trend on the prices though the first 4 in the betting have been responsible for 8 of the last 10 winners. Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 5.00. Summary: Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 6 or 7 - Carrying 11-0+ - Officially rated 145 or higher - Run in 3 to 6 chases (winning at least 50%) or finished in first 6 in a previous Hennessy - Won a class 2 or better chase over 3M 1F+ - Previously won a graded chase - Finished in the first 3 last time out - Posted an RPR of 156+ on last completed chase start - Previously run in 0 or 1 handicap chase (no more than 5) - Won a chase at Newbury over 2M 4F+ (or having first chase run here) - Tends to race prominently - Second season chaser that ran in last seasonâs RSA and/or Feltham Chase - Trained by P Nicholls, D Pipe, N Henderson or P Hobbs - Priced 10/1 or shorter I am off to the Hennessy on Saturday and have already had a couple of bets in it, OUR FATHER 14/1 & KATENKO 12/1 Might back another when I am there as love the thrill of the betting ring, might even have more on one I have already backed will decide when I`m there. Best of luck all
It would be good if they would already declare Tidal Bay a non-runner so that we can get the weights rearranged - surely he won't line up after his exertions at Haydock? If he doesn't run then everything should be going up 13lbs by my reckoning, with Cape Tribulation carrying top weight of 11-12. Most of you probably know I've been sweet on Invictus for a while but I am also looking for a second horse to back, as there is always the possibility that Invictus will need the run. Going on the stats above, there are probably 3 to put on the shortlist - Rocky Creek, Katenko and Lord Windermere. I'll wait for race day before taking the plunge though.
If the grounds decent Lord Windermere's a real player. Like Rolling Aces but think he's unlikely for it as Paul seems very sweet on Rocky Creek. A second season chaser anyway is the main stat for me!
Lord Windermere is a lovely chaser who could be a serious player if he keeps developing physically. His jumping is excellent. My favourite winner ever (85/1 antepost for last years RSA). He might be a saving bet for me but I think Rocky Creek, who has been handled tenderly by Nicholls, has some real good form boosts (Harry Topper and Dynaste) and has been aimed at this for some time. Invictus and Rocky Creek are my main two.
Oddy, my mate who works at the King yard has been banging on about Invictus for this race for months now, he is on at fancy prices but I never bothered and now can`t have him at 7/1 for this. Probably be completely wrong and he will hack up but not for me in this, GL.
Ithink the top two are gonna come out of this leaving Katenko to shoulder top weight.. i can only see that one running if it comes up soft... Would be my pick at this early.stage - a real monster of a horse too...The fact the horse is being primed for this and was taken out of the Paddy Power Gold Cup..take the hint is my advice!! (Dynaste) the recent example of this ......
Unfortunately the cat was out of the bag about Invictus before the main firms priced up the race - I think 14/1 is the biggest price I saw for him. For me that wasn't big enough ante post when weighing up the chance that he may not make the race. Something like 25s would have tempted me, but not 14s. Probably better prices available on Betfair earlier this year. I think Invictus is plenty short enough now and I'll wait until the day to see if maybe some 10s comes around ................
Bucks - I too will be at the Hennessy on saturday and i also like Our Father for the race! Goes extremely well fresh. Rocky Creek is a horse i have always liked so i will be backing him too
If the rain comes I really fancy OUR FATHER who wins first time up. If it stays dry I quite fancy KATENKO.
Not really had a proper look but it will be a tremendous training performance from Mr Nicholls if Rocky Creek gets up. Seem to recall him tipping this one for the 2013 renewal of this race even before Rocky Creek had jumped a fence in public! Another great training performance was of course in ’12. Mr Henderson after Bobs Worth had won the RSA was asked where he would go next and he simply said ‘Hennessy’. 8 and a half months later and we all know what happened next...genius!
Surely if the rain comes - then thats a big plus for Katenko. All his best form is on soft going.... Not sure he would go so well in good or good to soft going...
Fair enough... he did win a 3 mile handicap at Sandown where he stayed on very strongly up the Sandown hill (in soft, heavy in places going) so I dont think it will be a problem for Katenko. But I would only back him if it comes up soft. In that race he smashed Johns Spirit by 9 lengths and we've all seen what that horse has done recently.. In addition the horse was being talked about as a gold cup 'live outsider' until a bought of colic put pay to that.. Notice as well that it will be Imperial Commanders last outing in this race... hope he runs well. Twiston-Davies reports him being very fit and had a different preparation this time round and didnt go back to his owners like he normally would. Might help!
Very interesting- I was looking at IC- if hes going to win and the time to catch the old boy is fresh and 1st run of the season. He has a very good record running his 1st run of the season and running fresh and I know time is catching up on him but catching him at the right time and with a different prep they may have to look at a different retiring time. The GN was nver going to work imo he was going well until towards the end when he had to be pulled up @ 16/1 for this race is worth a defintate e/w shot
CAPE TRIBULATION is expected to run meaning he will be top weights and they will go up no more. My two run off KATENKO 11-11 & OUR FATHER 11-1.
It would be a very impressive win from Katenko off 11 stone 11. Invictus has to be backed running off 10 stone 13. Of course the risk is that he is rusty but the King team have taken their time in getting him ready for this and even on his form when winning before he even met the likes of Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti, he looked promising to the point where a mark of 145 is fair. He is getting weight from horses who I would fancy him to beat off levels. There is some 9/1 floating about and I have had some. 11 stone 8 is a big ask from Lord Windermere and a winning performance would see him into Gold Cup territory, but he will need to be smart if Rocky Creek and Invictus run close to their best. Hadrians Approach is decent but has real jumping issues. Our Father has a great record fresh but his form is questionable in a higher quality race?
The question for me with Katenko is how the horse is after his bout of colic. That was a long time ago though and the stable is in form and Katenko is a huge horse. The Hennessy is a tough race and Katenko will definitely stay... the distance will help him as he is unlikely to get soft conditions and I believe the horse has class. Last season he was talked about as a gold cup horse and a national one too.. One year on he could be a real monster this season. Is there a bigger horse in training than this fellow? Is this the new 'tank'??
