Not sure what to make of the potential lineup. Weaker than I expected and disappointing not to see Captain Conan running in it, who I think would have been an interesting contender from higher in the weights. I think Rajdhani Express is ridiculously overrated unless he is Long Run 2011 reincarnated or Henderson has 'doctored' (whoopsie) the horse passports and that it was Rajdhani who ran in the Charlie Hall. Dynaste could be seen at Haydock instead and I'm not sure he is the machine that people make out. The similarities between he and Grand Crus are frightening, but having said that he does look the more natural chaser. Finians Rainbow has no chance from that weight, at this trip, and at this track, surely? Jonjo has been the subject of people thinking he has a plot in JOHNS SPIRIT but its another of his that stands out like a sore thumb for me: It's probably at least 5/1 that he gets round but COLOUR SQUADRON 14/1 is screaming a dabble running off 10st 2. He is the best handicapped horse in the race if he put a good jumping sequence together, and the trip is ideal. He has bits of form tying in with Module, ***o, and Rajdhani Express where he was blighted in his progress by jumping, and he has the ability to run a mighty race. Out of those higher up the weights, KATENKO 14/1 might be the best of those, especially if he picks up from where he left off last season. He looked extremely smart the last twice and I think any further upgrade may have seen him in the first 4 or 5 home in the Gold Cup, and if I were to be right with that assessment he would be the one to beat on ability, and Venetia has started wonderfully well this year. So there is my answer to the jigsaw: KATENKO 14/1 (NAP) COLOUR SQUADRON 14/1 Those two against the field. View the card
I wish Marito had turned up. Think he looked potentially very well handicapped off a mark of 147 and was travelling very well under a very patient Ruby ride in the Jewson. Not to be though! No strong opinion on the race as it stands (although if Tatenen scrapes in and isn't too far out of the handicap he'll do me) but will look into it more when the final declarations are in.
Top man ROTO. Absolutely- Marito was running a stormer. I always look at the Paddy Power with "is there a genuine top class horse who can win it from the top of the weights?" "or is there a chaser who can get right on the upgrade from the lower end?" That's what makes me side with these two, especially at the prices too.
As I'm having to defend in the Challenge comp, I won't be debating this race much - but will be reading it a lot! There IS one I have my eye on however and just have to hope that A) he runs and B) that Chan doesn't pick him first
Is a hard race to call this year. Like you said about Finians rainbow, not sure why they would run him here off top weight, which would then put Dynaste's participation in doubt. Dynaste is favorite for the king George so should be competitive off his high weight if that is genuine although he probably is better at 3m. I actually like Rajdhani Express as a horse but he's only 4lb behind Dynaste now, and Colour Squadron is weighted to reverse form on festival running. Only 6 though so can still improve. Will have a better look at him if he's declared. What is it you don't like about him, other than his owners? Marito is entered for the Clonmel Oil Chase on thursday, which looks like a hell of a race for a thursday if a good number of the entries turn up. Will you 2 be lumping on??? http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/14-11-2013/clonmel/racecard/592847/clonmel-oil-steeplechase-grade-2
There are a couple in here I am just really looking forward to seeing again - Katenko is certainly one of them (although this might be a bit sharp for him?) and certainly Battle Group, whose followed up his remarkable Aintree exploits (won the Grade 3 handicap hurdle on the Thursday and followed up in the Listed Handicap Chase on National day) by taking a Pertemps Hurdle at Haydock off a 15lb higher hurdles rating. His chase rating here is 19lbs higher than when winning at Aintree but he does have the added advantage of not having won a Grade 3 handicap hurdle 2 days prior to the race . He certainly goes well fresh and could still be ahead of the handicapper, even off 150.
Evening all, here are the trends for the race: past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 0-3-13 6yo: 2-6-30 7yo: 7-7-45 8yo: 1-5-41 9yo: 0-7-21 10yo+: 0-0-18 Horses aged 5 to 7: 9-16-88 Horses aged 8+: 1-12-80 None of the 18 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 6-8-63 Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 4-20-105 Higher weights have held a slight advantage with 6 of last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more. Top Weight: 504FPP65PP (0-1-10) Official Ratings Horses rated 146 or higher: 7-11-69 Horses rated 136 to 145: 3-11-82 Horses rated 135 or less: 0-6-17 7 of 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher from approximately 39.4% of total runners. Recent/Past Form 7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham 9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F (exception had won a 3M point to point and was 3rd in a grade 1 over 2M 4F on only chase start over further than 2M 1F) 10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better 6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 of 4 exceptions placed in a grade 1 hurdle) 6 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season, 3 winning and 1 finished 2nd) 6 of 6 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed start 9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run less than 10 times over fences 10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases 10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers Last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree Other Races Previous November Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 2U1 (1-1-3) Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Rajdhani Express): 1F3P (1-1-4) Record of first 6 from Rewards4Racing Novice H'cap Chase: P061P2F1F23P (2-3-12) Previous December Gold Cup winner (Unioniste): 125UP (1-1-5) First 3 from previous December Gold Cup: 123P5U1P (2-2-8) Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 1 (1-0-1) Previous year's Steel Plate And Sections Novice Chase winner (Dynaste): 1P (1-0-2) Feltham Novice Chase winner (Deynas): 3P (0-1-2) Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 846 (0-1-3) Silver Trophy Chase winner (Champion Court): 2PU (0-1-3) Timeform Novice H'cap Chase winner (Vino Griego): 6U (0-0-2) Murphy Group H'cap Chase winner (Katenko): 706 (0-0-3) Byrne Group Plate winner (Carrickboy): 477PP60 (0-0-7) 3 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 31F 3 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, finishing 211 2 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 16 3 of 3 third season chaser winners ran in previous year's December Gold Cup, finishing 1F2 8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival Trainers The Pipe stable (3-1-16) have accounted for 4 of the last 11 winners of the race with Martin Pipe taking 3 and David Pipe (1-1-10) training Great Endeavour to win it in 2011. Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-2-14) trained the winner in in 2008 & 2010 and a placed finisher in 2007 & 2009. He saddled the 5th in 2011 and had no runner in it last year. Nicky Henderson (1-6-17) & Paul Nicholls (1-4-21) have both saddled the winner and multiple placed finishers in the last 10 years. Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-9) trained Exotic Dancer to win this in 2006. Phillip Hobbs (0-4-9) and Alan King (0-3-8) have all had multiple placed finishers since 2003. Irish based trainers (1-1-18) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980. Price The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000. Favourites (3-3-10) have gained 3 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2003 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 6.00. Summary: Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 5 to 7 - Carrying 10-13+ - Officially rated 146 or higher - Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase - Previously won a chase at Cheltenham - Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F - Second or third season chaser - Previously run less than 10 times over fences - Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases - First 3 in 2012 Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase or December Gold Cup - Ran in a chase at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival - First 6 in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase - Trained in Great Britain - Trained by David Pipe, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson - Favourite does well Not sure who I fancy for the race yet, will probably wait till Friday to go through the race properly.
As long as he runs it will be Katenko ew for me Reebs. You can't say I've not given you time to study
Looks like it's between Dynaste and Rajdhani Express with, Katenko a danger. But I'm looking at something else at the moment.
Would love to see my name sake win it but will never happen (i shall be having a small sentimental bet on him) but my main money will be on Champion Court hit the ground running when a good second to Williams Wishes at ascot then put a super performance in the KG when 4th (altho he ran his heart out and jumped very well) was leading til 3 out and then just kept on at the same pace- this field is not way as strong as that field that day. He then fared even better when winning over the same course and distance as this exact race beating the likes of Menorah and Hunt Ball. Goes well fresh and will love the ground ,this will be his number aim this season of winning some superior Gold and @ 9/1 is some good value in him
FINIANS RAINBOW has had a wind op during the Summer and the hope is that he will be back to his best. He is actually very fairly treated on his best form. Michael Buckley is keen to tackle the King George but as ever with Finians everything rests on the ground. To get 3m at Kempton you would have to be seeing out this 2m4f pretty well. I have had a speculative few quid in recent weeks on him at 55 which I just thought wasn't the biggest waste of money ever. Seems I am wrong and should give that up eh Toppy lad!
Haha, you know how woefully wrong I can get it at times! He is a lovely chaser at his best but I'm not sure he defeated a prime Sizing Europe when an arguably fortunate winner at Cheltenham 2012, he needs good ground (unlikely this week?) and wants to prove he stays an extended 2 and a half miles on one of the most testing tracks of the season? Not for me, but if you have had a vibe from connections that he is going nicely, 55s is a hell of a price for a Champion Chaser. Somersby did the Ascot form of theirs no harm recently mate! Talking of the King George, Captain Conan got an entry. Purely speculative or a chance he might go up in trip at some point?
That's the one Wooly. You're the first one to mention him. He's a horse I've always liked so it could be somewhat sentimental. Juicy pedigree too. The sire, Court Cave is an unraced brother to Beat Hollow and is by Sadler´s Wells out of the Dancing Brave mare Wemyss Bight who was out of Bahamian, herself by Mill Reef out of a Busted mare. The mare is by leading sire of jumpers Supreme Leader who is by Bustino out of a Habitat mare. Very tasty indeed.
Be amazed if he stayed three miles with his pedigree Toppy but the word is that he will be tried at some point this season!
Ground likely to be against finnians so cant be having him. Katenko for me....powerhouse of a horse..
I like Katenko but I had him high on my Hennessey list, would 2m 5f on good ground be on the sharp side for him ? Backed a few of Venetia's of late and most of them have won (or been placed) so if he runs I think he could go well. I also like Rajdhani Express, I love a CD winner and he fits most of the trends.
Could it be the forums favorite trainer has Fiinian's entered to keep Nadiya De La Vega on a nice racing weight of 10-3 off a mark of 140? Considering the horse has won 1st time out/fresh for the last 3 seasons and was an admirable 3rd in the corresponding race last year off 145 I wouldn't be at all surprised if messrs Henderson, McManus and McCoy were having a go here!!!! Thoughts?
The one horse you'd follow off a cliff . Shark did say his were sick last year so I suppose its not out of the question. Not sure how he'll handle a big field (don't think you can take his first two races into account for saying a big field is suitable) It doesn't look a strong renewal though.
