I think Star Witness might be a bit of a false favourite. He has loads of ability, but doesn't always get it together on race day. He's the type of horse who can look good in defeat. He leaves you thinking, "that wasn't too bad, I might get on him next time." The problem is, he just does the same thing again. Make no mistake though, if he gets it right, he's one hell of a horse. I'm hoping that the English conditions will be the making of him. I can't help thinking that the Stand might just go to a home grown product this year.
Looking at these odds I can see me giving the race a miss. With the recent record of the ex-convicts in the race the favourite will probably oblige. I do not care to bet on whether Sole Power will turn up with his A-game like when he won the Nunthorpe at 100/1 but I would not discount him. The Overdose “Wonder Horse” bubble was burst at Haydock and there were no excuses that I could see – he simply was not good enough. Astrophysical Jet and Swiss Diva could both be of interest at 16/1 but there are enough negatives attached to each of them and I only back each-way when the odds are big AND I think the horse has a good chance to win.
Will probably go with Astrophysical Jet @ 16/1. He looked impressive last season. Disappointed on his return at Newmarket but always happy to give them a second chance!
I've gone Holiday for Kitten at small stakes EW. Think in a below standard renewal such as this one the honors could go to something at a higher price.
I think I will wait to see how much I have won on Canford Cliffs before having a bet in this. of the overseas entries Bridgetown looks the most interesting to me
I do agree with cyclonic, star witness is a bit of a false favourite and sole power is not the most conistent! My money will either go on overdose, I know haydock wasnt the best run of his life (i mite be wrong- but that was his 1st run in england) so you can excuse that! and a horse doesnt get a nickname like he has got without the class he has and he does have shere speed! @ 14/1 he is a huge price defintately at least worth a e/w, with this field I cannot see him out of the placings at least! Kingsgate Native I reckon is a safe e/w!- Although he hasnt won since may last year, he was a worthy 2nd to Sole Power and did have every chance but just couldnt find anything left in the tank in the final furlon and again with Ryan Moore on board he stands a chance. I cant really see out of the in the placings! But I reckon my money will be on Overdose e/w!
Overdose has never raced on GF ground ever! Surely thats a good enough excuse for Haydock especially with softer ground tomorrow. I must admit I'd put a line through him, but leaning towards an EW as well. I could be the bet of the year at those odds!! Is he really that good though??!!! We will find out!! I like War Artist as well. Any idea on the draw bias in this one?
I'm not realy a fan of betting in these sort of sprints, as the form rarely stacks up, and the race tends to be won on which horse is drawn the best rather than which one is most talented. It does seem that Australian sprinters are better than ours, and they have a very good record at Royal Ascot so I'm sure this one will be hard to beat. So il go with the favourite Star Witness though I don't think il be risking any cash on him
There seems to be pace everywhere in the race so its hard to say wether there is an advantage or not. With Overdose and the Ward horse, i like the high numbers again but we wont know until after the race. Star Witness is a very good sprinter, Group 1 winner at 2 and 3 and that takes some doing over sprint trips in Australia. He has ran second to Black Caviar over there finishing infront of good horses like Hay List so this should be easy enough for him. The strong pace will play into his hands and I look forward to seeing this beast power home with a late run. Our sprinters are a bunch of glorified handicappers and I rate Overdose the only danger, but he may be past his best. Forget Star Witness's last run, there was a car show before the race and the noise from the engines got the horse really worked up, it wasnt his true running. Hes been aimed at this race for some time and 9/2 is a gift.
If there was alot of rain tomorrow, and it was real soft ground, I will be having a small bet on Arctic who I think alot of. Yet to see the best of him, hes a machine on heavy ground.
Yes, eddieveeee, I've just backed him with Bluesquare @ 40/1. The recent rain may just have eased the ground for him. This is his trip in a very open race- I like Swiss Diva as well.
As stated above, I think Star Witness is not value. If he puts his best foot forward, he'll just about win. But I've been going over the UK form, and ended up with a weak tip for Group Therapy. He made some nice ground late, last run and went to the post as well as anything. If he can run into the top four, he might pay well on the tote. Dad was a bit of a speed demon. Group Therapy EW Tote.
The 5f British and Irish sprinters are rubbish and the Aussie horse is probably priced up as favourite due to the fact that they have a good record in the race. I think the American horse Bridgetown is worth a bet at 11/1.
Star Witness has drifted badly this morning, he was generally 4/1- 7/2 with most firms yesterday, now he's 13/2
I felt Star Witness was the best horse in this race today, was knocked out of the stalls, and still finished we'll under a very laid back ride, maybe leaving something in the tank for Saturdays Golden Jubilee. One thing is for sure Star Witness has proven just how much better the Aussie sprinters are than ours, and has given Black Caviar a major form boost, who is clearly one of the greatest sprinters of all time,. If you look at Star witness's form in Oz he is just a run of the mill G1 performer, yet he ran with great credit over here, and will be the one to beat in the Golden Jubilee
