Breeders Cup Early Value

Juvenile Turf - Bobbys Kitten 13/2 Hills

BC Turf - Big Blue Kitten 9/1 Paddys


Wise Dan is an absolute jailcase to beat Olympic Glory, 5/4 not exactly a great Antepost bet tho even though its a 2s on shot.

 

Agree about Wise Dan,if Excelebration couldnt get close Olympic Glory has no chance whatsoever.

BC Fillies and Mares Turf-And the Way Dank annihilated her field last time,i really cannot see anything to trouble her with this lot.

And Flat out in the Classic to run well for a place(Anyone who backs Declaration of War in this must have serious brain damage)

 

Olympic Glory is a very good horse and provided he handles the course he will give Wise Dan a race. 5/1 is a huge price.

 

From a European perspective, there does not look to be a great deal of reason to believe that punters are going to get very rich following horses that have crossed The Pond.

On Friday in the two Turf races for Juveniles, there are strong chances for visitors, with Vorda (Cheveley Park winner) heading the market in the Juvenile Fillies Turf ahead of Chriselliam (Fillies’ Mile winner); whilst the Juvenile Turf sees Giovanni Boldini (third to Toormore at The Curragh), Outstrip (third in the Dewhurst) and Wilshire Boulevard (fourth to Karakontie at Longchamp) amongst the market principals. Although the odds are attractive, these are open races and the journey has been a little bit further than the Irish Sea or English Channel. Ballydoyle won the Turf with George Vancouver last year but what became of him?

On Saturday in the Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf, there appears to be every prospect of the prize returning to Europe as the favourite Dank looks very much the one to beat if things go her way and the second favourite is French filly Romantica (not seen since poor run in Prix Vermeille).

In the Breeders’ Cup Mile, I do not fancy Olympic Glory at all unless it can be guaranteed soft ground. His best two career performances to date have been in the mud so this does look one for favourite Wise Dan (sorry Freddy The Salmon).

The market in the Breeders’ Cup Turf is dominated by The Fugue, who has had a light campaign over here and would be an odds-on shot if this race were in Europe. Whilst Magician is an interesting contender after a long lay off, I agree with The Master of Glesga that Big Blue Kitten is probably the best option from the home team unless last year’s winner Little Mike can repeat.

Whilst I hope that Declaration Of War runs a great race in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, there are too many imponderables to get involved against the home side dirt specialists. With last year’s winner Fort Larned back to defend his title, Game On Dude is a bit short for my liking.

 

Olympic Glory did almost beat Moonlight Cloud on fast ground in the summer with a lot of other good horses behind him, so I think that does show he is more than just a soft ground horse.

 

I see that Britain hasn’t had a ‘Breeders Cup’ winner since 2010. Cor blimey, even Argentina have a better recent record! Shall we all cry re the current state of British racing! To my eye the fillies, Dank and The Fugue, go into their heats with very strong chances so I would expect the poor recent record not to stretch into another year.

I do think though that Mr O’Brien running Magician against The Fugue is most interesting as he steps his charge up to 12 furlongs. I thought Magician’s romp in the ‘Irish 2,000’ was one of the best performances of the term and he should, like old boy Gosden’s filly, relish the ground. I still prefer The Fugue on Saturday (who has to be one of the best fillies of this millennium when everything is in her favour) but if he handles the step up in trip I can see Magician possibly developing into one of the best older horses next season over 10-12 furlongs.

Re Olympic Glory ‘The Weekender’ today have highlighted the appalling record of QEII winners in the ‘BC Mile’. Top, top animal s such as Excelebration, Desert Prince, Shadeed, Milligram, Warning, Zilzal, Markofdistinction, Selkirk and Bigstone have all failed to do the double.

 

I am not sure where you are getting the notion that the going was fast for the Prix Jacques Le Marois (Deauville - always watered by France Galop) but it was officially “good to soft” and both Olympic Glory and Moonlight Cloud have put up their best performances on slow surfaces. If you look at the French mare’s results, she was eighth of nine in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile on “firm” ground (Wise Dan won) and seventh in the 2011 Newmarket 1000 Guineas on “good to firm”; and in her thirteen race career never won on anything faster than “good”.

 

I would want 5/1 Olympic Glory to finish in the first 4. Straight mile mudlark, has absolutely no chance of winning.

 

As annoying as it is having watched truly top class horses fail in their attempts- Galileo the late great George Washington, So You Think, and Giants Causeway I really fancy Declaration Of War to go close to landing the Breeders Cup Classic for Aiden O'Brien.

This one has more chance of handling the surface and there are smatterings of Group1 form everywhere in Europe this season. Any European horse who translates best form on American soil has to go close and for once you are getting a good price at around the 8 or 9/1 mark

Always find the Breeders Cup an entertaining meeting and will be around on Saturday night for a fun evening thread if anyone is interested.

 

I don't know about you lot but I'm so excited by that report that I've bought Dank on the sly and booked her in for a quick romp with Declaration of War minutes after he saunters to victory on Saturday.

 

He looks to have a better chance than any I can remember going for the Classic on dirt, Giants Causeway and Sakhee before my time. Hes bred for the dirt and seems one of those consistent, tough, high class horses. The yanks dont have a standout, Game On Dude is no champion so if DOW handles the track he could run a big race. I dont know what im backing in that yet.