Card http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=528248&r_date=2011-06-14 Surely thats a very poor price.Okay he looks a superstar,but he looked to have a hard race in the guineas. Excelebration looks great value at 14-1.Wasnt beaten a million miles by Frankel,and looks to have improved a lot since his reappearance, when hosing up in the German guineas on ground he didn't favour.Im not saying hes gonna win but for e/w backers he looks very good. Has to be worse 14-1 shots than this fella.
I think the price - 4/11 I've seen too - is fair based on what he's done so far! Something has to go amiss for me for him not to win. I agree though that at 14/1 Excelebration is the e/w bet!
Too many unknowns in the race for me, including how they are going to ride him, whether he will enjoy the turning track (if going hard in front) and how good are some of his opposition. The Japanese horse could be anything and how good are Zoffany/Wootton Bassett/Dream Ahead. Frankel should win but at 1/3 he certainly isn't a bet, and what is more with him in the race I would be massively wary in backing anything else to place as well, because if horses try to take him on early you could have the better horses falling in a hole allowing false finishing positions.
Surely he only has to turn up to turn this into a procession? Wootton Bassett was most disappointing in the French 2000 Guineas, and must have serious questions to answer now. Dream Ahead has yet to be seen this season and whilst he was impressive on soft ground in the Middle Park he was thumped by Frankel in the Dewhurst. There were possible excuses that day but i just get the feeling that connections don't think he can beat Frankel. He may well miss the race anyway unless the rain comes (as it might). Dubawi Gold was well beaten in the 2000 Guineas and i see no reason why he should be any closer in this race. Fury was well beaten in 5th in the Guineas and failed to win a Listed race last time. Therefore it seems unlikely that he can find the requisite improvement to beat the best 2000 Guineas winner ever. Excelebration was thumped authoritatively in the Greenham, and just think what the winning distance would have been had that race been over a mile. Grand Prix Boss is obviously something of an unknown quantity but his Japan form puts him on a RPR of 133 to Frankel's 147. Zoffany was beaten last time in a far weaker race but as with all O'Brien horses, may well improve, but i doubt that he can find as much improvement as is required to turn over the favourite. Etc etc. And for those suggesting course concerns may i refer you to his demolition job in the Royal Lodge over course and distance. That victory was the one that really announced that we have a superstar on our hands. I think people should have faith in him. From what we have seen so far he looks unbeatable, especially against his own generation. I suspect that they won't repeat the Newmarket tactics but i fail to see why this is a concern. If he pulls very hard, Queally has the option of allowing him to stride on. He stays the mile well, but must be the fastest horse in the race, so a strong or steady gallop shouldn't inconvenience him in that respect. The one question mark for me is whether he is over that monumental Newmarket effort. The vibes have been strong from the stable, but we will not know for certain until we see him on Tuesday. I very much hope that he can prove the doubters wrong once again with another fine display. I would be very surprised if he were to be beaten. So all in all 1/3 looks a fair price and i will be 'investing'.
Dancingbraveforever, you must have seen a different 2000 Guineas to the one I saw at Newmarket. How is a one horse procession a “hard race”? NassauBoard, I do not see any problem for Frankel with the track at Ascot. He won the Royal Lodge there as a two-year-old by a street. I think that the general consensus of opinion about Wootton Bassett was that he ran too freely early on in the Poulains and possibly did not stay. Whilst I like the horse and hope that he runs a great race my suspicion is that the latter may turn out to be true. If they decide to front-run with him, Queally then has the option to sit in behind rather than make the running. Dream Ahead is a soft ground donkey and I do not see any prospect of it getting bottomless and he lacks race fitness against race-fit rivals with form in the book.
QM, he did indeed but that day he ran very differently than he was held up and wasn't going a sprinters speed into the turns (he was going very fast at HQ in the Guineas), if he goes really fast how do you know that he is going to handle the turn? If they get him to settle then he will hack up, but if he is free going and goes from the front then I worry about him. I would love him to hack up and then go to Goodwood to provide the race of the year with CC but I think at 1/3 or 1/4 its much easier to swerve him than back him
Grand Prix Boss obviously is not coming over here just for a holiday. His position in the market is probably something to do with the a couple of facts: (1) he has never met Frankel so he has not been beaten yet; and (2) Japanese raiders in Europe in the last few years have a pretty good record, such as Nakayama Festa second and Deep Impact third in the Arc.
1-3 is surely too short...I don't mean for Frankel in particular I would suggest for any horse taking part in a horse race! An old age is if you've got the 3 do you really need the 1...?
it also comes back to what you consider "value" admittedly hardly ever does 1-3 represent value. A couple of years back at Cheltenham though Masterminded went off at 1-3, I had £60 on and it was the easiest £20 I have ever made. I think a case can be made for next week too. There is just no alternative you could back with any confidence so as long as Frankel goes no worse than 1-3 I will be prepared to have a bet (anything bigger than 1-3 and then a big NO)
I always used to be afraid of taking very short prices about horses in previous seasons but i have started to change my mind. One example would be So You Think in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. I had my biggest ever bet at 2/9. I would never have considered doing that previously but to me he should have been 1/10 so it therefore represented terrific value. If Frankel is 1/3 then i'll be backing him for the St James' Palace. He might not win but i hope and think he will. On all known form he deserves to be at least that short.
At 1/3 I will be looking to double-up Frankel with some of my other fancies on the day to boost their odds. He has to be the nearest thing to a racing certainty that you are ever likely to see - the Big Buck's of the flat scene.
When your backing a horse at 1/3 you have to feel the horse is bomb proof for the win, and whilst I believe Frankel will win, that run in the Guineas worries me, he ran him self into the ground that day, and another run like that could finish him off!
Shergar, you may know the answer to this one. All things being equal, how many lengths would you expect a 2yo to improve each month through natural development, given that a horse continues to mature to age 5 and beyond. The reason I ask is that horses like Nathaniel and RO'C are 2 months younger than Frankel. So at some point when he stops improving some horses still have 2 months' improvement in them. Just a thought.
Fair point Ron as regards age, but ROC and Nathaniel are going to have to find loads and loads to get near Frankel, I suppose it depends on the horse, and it's breeding as to how quickly it matures, I'd imagine a 2 year old would improve a good bit from month to month but so will the competition it's facing. 2yo will also improve alot from experience, thats one thing you have to take into account when punting on Maidens
Agreed Shergar. But what I am saying is that if, for example (and I have no idea) a 2yo improves 2l per month (to a point), then when that point is reached by the older horse a 2 month younger horse still has 4l improvement in him/her. The 2l is purely for illustrative purposes of course. I have never factored this in before. It's even more difficult to guess how many lengths a horse will improve from experience. Then when you include the possibility that on its début the jockey may well have received instructions to give the horse a gentle introduction, it's almost impossible to bet 2yos with any confidence. I suppose watching the horse's rating after each race (taking account of how it won) would give some idea of its progression, or lack of).
Frankel should win this by a massive margin but I like Zoffany and Wooton Basset for the each way, got 16/1 and 20/1
What ridiculous riding tactics used by Tom Queally, settling him and then kicking for home with 4 furlongs to go, why couldn't he have waited til the home straight to press the button
1 out of 3 but that will be good enough I'm sure! I think the 'phew' there from Cecil at the end summed it up.
