Draw is at 10am tomorrow morning Supposed to be live on France Galop youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/francegaloptv I wont be setting the alarm to watch it as my balls are already on the block with Treve at 8/1. I think shes the best filly since Zarkava and hopefully she gets a nice draw, if not, im still confident, the draw is incapable of putting me off her. She is not a Novellist who needs a good draw and a perfect trip.
Final declarations for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (draw in parentheses): 01 Very Nice Name – 4yo – A. De Mieulle, P. Convertino (1) 02 Novellist (IRE) – 4yo – A. Wohler, J. Murtagh (12) 03 Al Kazeem (GB) – 5yo – R. Charlton, J. Doyle (18) 04 Joshua Tree (IRE) – 6yo – E. Dunlop, R. Hughes (14) 05 Meandre – 5yo – A. Shavuyev, U. Rispoli (2) 06 Orfevre (JPN) – 5yo – Y. Ikee, C. Soumillon (8) 07 Going Somewhere (BRZ) – 4yo – D. Smaga, G. Benoist (4) 08 Haya Landa – 5yo – Mme L. Audon, F. Blondel (17) 09 Pirika (IRE) – 5yo – A. Fabre, P. Boudot (3) 10 Flintshire (GB) – 3yo – A. Fabre, M. Guyon (7) 11 Leading Light (IRE) – 3yo – A. O’Brien, G. Mosse (5) 12 Ocovango (GB) – 3yo – A. Fabre, S. Pasquier (13) 13 Penglai Pavilion (USA) – 3yo – A. Fabre, M. Barzalona (10) 14 Kizuna (JPN) – 3yo – S. Sasaki, Y. Take (11) 15 Ruler Of The World (IRE) – 3yo – A. O’Brien, R. Moore (6) 16 Sahawar – 3yo – C. Ferland, T. Thulliez (16) 17 Intello (GER) – 3yo – A. Fabre, O. Peslier (9) 18 Treve – 3yo – Mme C. Head-Maarek, T. Jarnet (15)
Okay, I will be first to state the bl**ding obvious: Al Kazeem is going to have to move across and try to get a good position and hope that he gets the breaks late in the race. How much of his horse James Doyle uses up doing this will determine whether he is challenging at the finish or just passing beaten horses. Treve has been done no favours by the draw. Whilst I think she is good enough to win, her lack of experience (just four races) could be her biggest problem weaving through a big field. The two Aidan O’Brien runners drawn next to Flintshire and Orfevre looks to be where the action could be coming from at the business end of the race. How bad is the twelve box for Novellist?
Ruler of the world drawn 6 the most succesful number to be drawn, will love the ground and has the turn of ofoot everything is in his favour!!
I know it doesn't count for a lot because a tip is just someones opinion but for what its worth i was in the bookies on Wednesday and one of the regular punters who passes me occasional tips (usually successful ones), he's been right with 3 out of the 4 i've had off him, told me to get on Treve and he put four grand on it. I was leaning towards Ruler of the World at a bigger price before this so think i'll now be on both with rev f/c
With the shock defection of Novellist, the current state of the betting for the remaining seventeen (src: Oddschecker) is as follows: 3/1 Orfevre (Betfred, Totesport) 9/2 Treve (Wm. Hill) 8/1 Kizuna (Boylesport) 10/1 Ruler Of The World (Coral, Wm. Hill) 11/1 Intello (various inc. Wm. Hill) 12/1 Flintshire (various) 14/1 Leading Light (various) 20/1 Al Kazeem (Stan James) 33/1 Ocovango (Coral, Wm. Hill) 50/1 Penglai Pavilion (Boylesport) 66/1 Meandre (Coral), Very Nice Name (various) 100/1 Pirika (various), Going Somewhere (various) 125/1 Joshua Tree (Stan James) 150/1 Haya Landa (various) 200/1 Sahawar (various)
Not a Coolmore fan by any means by Ruler Of The World on the PMU will be a great bet as the Japenese will hammer their own. Other than that Meandre e/w for me
Looking at Saturday’s races at Longchamp, it did not look as soft as it looked at Ascot. The Fugue held entries in both the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and the Prix de l’Opera on Thursday morning but was withdrawn from both. If you had an ante post bet, you lost your money. I guess it depends what chance you thought Novellist had; nonetheless, I would have liked to see him run because you want the best horses in the best race. His draw was not great but was not terminal. My biggest problem that was his chance entirely hinged on one race – the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The form looks very suspect and all those trying to make a case (including Timeform) were stopwatch addicts.
Well done Master. Notice The Royal Stud gave up on Motivator at the optimum time and that in 2013 he transferred to the Haras du Quesnay in Normandy. Nice move by Warren.
Had to have a little smile to myself. She makes a forward move in a split second and in the milisecond that you think "she might be keen here", she has blown the Arc field to bits and hammered them by 5 lengths! What a performance. Made a complete mockery of any in depth analysis and statistics. I wish flat racing had more of that- if you are concerned with the draw and you think you are on the best horse, make your move and commit to it. BAM, they never saw her. Where are these fillies comig from?!
This one came from Motivator which pleased me enormously, as he is one of the few Derby winners I actually backed. He's had a barren few years as a stallion with a fair chunk of his offspring being seen in the NH sphere so it is nice to see him produce a wonder horse. Bustino - someone at The Royal Stud will be kicking himself this morning
