Hi Ron. I think it's very difficult to rule your above mentions in or out at this stage. Sure, the Neil time was very slightly slower than the Vermaille but they will meet Treve on 5 lbs better terms in the Arc. Ground & draw will be all important, together with who actually turns up, so I agree with Quartermoon that backing the market leaders at this stage is folly, although there is some value lower down the market.
I don't bet Campo so for me it's just a case of trying to find the winner regardless of price. Admittedly, if I go to Longchamp to see the race I will probably have a little on a couple of them just to make it more interesting, as long as I could get at least evens the 2.
Some of the gloss has gone off Al Kazeem’s chances with his recent defeats and if the ground came up good enough for The Fugue to run, she already has his number; however, the distance would not be his problem. You pretty much summed up a large part of the problem with most of those you named. Half of the three year olds have been beating each other all season so none of them is clearly the leading contender. In the Prix Niel, the Epsom Derby winner was beaten in a photo with the two Andre Fabre contenders less than a length behind. When you can throw a blanket over them that generally means the form is unreliable. I expect that Jim Bolger will run Trading Leather and he is overpriced for a horse that races up with the pace – provided he gets a low draw. I did not see any of the post St Leger discussion so I do not know whether connections plan to supplement Leading Light or Talent for the Arc. I do not have the actual statistic to hand but there have been quite a few St Leger winners (some more famous than others) attempt the double over the last forty years unsuccessfully. The proximity of the races is usually an issue and quite a lot of St Leger winners are just out-and-out stayers.
Not much of a surprise that Intello won his Arc trial, the Group 3 Prix du Prince d’Orange, given that his only realistic opponent was French champion two-year-old disappointment Morandi. Less of a surprise was the lack of change in the betting as most of the bookmakers share my view that Intello will be a non stayer over the extra two furlongs on 6th October. So the latest betting (src: Oddschecker) shows just the expected shortening of the odds about the favourites: 7/2 Orfevre 9/2 Treve* 13/2 Novellist 8/1 Kizuna 11/1 Ruler Of The World 12/1 Flintshire, Intello 14/1 Al Kazeem 20/1 The Fugue 25/1 Leading Light*, Ocovango, Manndawi 33/1 Penglai Pavilion, Wild Coco, Maxios, Lucky Speed, Sky Hunter, Talent*, Galileo Rock 40/1 Meandre, Morandi, Ridasiyna 50/1 Camelot, Tres Bleu, Trading Leather, Triple Threat, Very Nice Name, Battle Of Marengo (* = needs to be supplemented)
If Intello is unlikely to stay it seems a bit odd that Flintshire and Intello are the same odds. Trading Leather at more than 4 times the odds looks out of balance also.
Intello’s breeding suggests that he will not stay as, whilst he is a Galileo colt, the dam’s side of the family are all mile/ten furlong horses. That is just an opinion but the bookmakers did not slash his odds as Saturday’s race was a penalty kick and only really told us that the horse is well. The poor recent record of Prix Du Jockey Club winners does not help his case either. He is running in the Arc because that is what the owners (and breeders) want just as when he ran in the Prix Jacques Le Marois at Deauville. Trading Leather’s price does seem to suggest that he may not show up on the day as he has been involved in the finishes of quite a few of the big middle distance races this season.
Treve is out of a 6 furlong Dam & question marks were also being raised about her staying until she won the Vermeille. It's all guesswork until it's tried but, like Treve, he seemed to handle 10.5 Furlongs well enough. I feel that there are question marks against everything in the Arc field thus far. I've approached the anti Post Arc market with a spread of early bets this year & have topped up on Flintshire & Intello at the big prices that were available since the trials. I will now wait until I know ground & draw before adding/Balancing my position.
This is what pisses me off about the flat - will horse xyz stay 12 furlongs. For ****'s sake, send him for a racecourse gallop or run him 12F on the downs. It can't be that ****ing difficult The number of horses where you hear the trainer say "He didn't stay". Well that's just ****ing dandy, but I've just done my money on him you ****. Find out before he ****ing runs whether he stays or not. I fail to believe, in this day and age, that it is so difficult.
What the dam herself did is largely academic (Desert Orchid should have been a sprinter!). What the dam’s other offspring have done is what usually matters; and of course there are always exceptions that prove the rule. In the case of Intello he is related to milers and ten furlong horses on the dam’s side including this year’s Prix Jean Prat third Mondialiste. Treve’s dam Trevise currently only has one sibling racing and that is an eight year old handicapper Trois Rois, which ran third at Meydan over a mile and a quarter in 2011 but has not placed since. Treve has never looked like a doubtful stayer but she has only had four career starts and that is more of a concern, although glowing reports from Criquette Head-Maarek about how she has come on in the last few days are good news for her followers.
Calm down, Oddy! I believe that I am right in saying that trainers are not allowed to organise private races on the gallops to find out their horses’ preferred distances. Covering the distance at racing speed is what matters: non-stayers do not just come to a standstill! And surely the same applies to National Hunt racing? If you run your stable’s champion two miler in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and it is beaten with a circuit to go because it does not want to go three miles plus in a slower race, will you not use a variant of the “he did not stay” excuse?
Deepest Apologies. My research into past winners was flawed. I claimed that Corrida in 1936 was the last horse to win the Arc after being previously beaten in it. It actually happened in 3 successive years later with All Along-1983, Sagace-1984 and Rainbow Quest-1985. All were beaten previously as 3 Yr olds. Sagace 'won' again in 1985 but was disqualified into second with Rainbow Quest promoted to winner.
please log in to view this image Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: Don't say no to Novellist We could be in for a treat on Sunday October 6 as, at this stage, the 2013 renewal of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is shaping up to be an excellent one. In the past the recognised Arc "trials" haven't necessarily paved the way for the winner of the main event but this season's races offered an array of clues that deserve to be noted. The three winners, namely Kizuna, Treve and Orfevre, achieved varying amounts in winning their "trials" and the comparison between them is intriguing. Visually the most impressive was Orfevre but he achieved least in both form terms and on the clock, though supporters of last year's runner-up will be encouraged as his performance confirmed his well-being with the five-year-old having burst a blood vessel in June. Orfevre's form made him the best horse in last year's Arc and he duly looked just that right up until an apparent lack of focus at the death ultimately cost him, hanging right and continuing to idle once against the rail, even colliding with it at one point. That was by no means the first sign of ungainliness by Orfevre, and it has blotted his copybook slightly, but the way in which he powered through the field in the Longchamp straight was a sight to behold. The Yasutoshi Ikee-trained Orfevre went some way to banishing those memories with a dominant display in the Prix Foy last week, though it was a race he was very much entitled to win in the style that he did. He was considerably more impressive than when landing the same race 12 months previously and, though he didn't need to be at his best to account for a field of inferior rivals, he gave the impression that he is every bit as good as ever. Orfevre has a leading chance in this year's Arc and his chance could be enhanced by jockey Christophe Soumillon now being wise to him and his antics; making his challenge against the rail would be a prudent move. Not far behind Orfevre in terms of the visual impression created on "trials" day was Treve, a three-year-old filly who has made giant strides this season for trainer Criquette Head-Maarek. Treve overcame a significant rise in class in the Group 1 Prix de Diane having won a minor event at Saint Cloud just a month earlier, showing an electric turn of foot to quicken to the lead and run out an impressive winner, beating subsequent Irish Oaks winner Chicquita comprehensively. Treve's win in the Prix Vermeille was equally impressive, even more so when considering that a quarter of a mile from home she had a mountain to climb having found herself in a most unpromising position. She was clearly going best however, and when extricated by Frankie Dettori she took off and ran down long-time leader Wild Coco, a talented mare in her own right. Proven at the trip and possessing a potent burst of acceleration, Treve's Arc claims are obvious. The only slight reservation is that she is almost certainly going to need some luck in-running given her style of racing, and it is well documented just how congested a race the Longchamp showpiece can be. Opinion appears to be split regarding the remaining "trial" winner Kizuna, the top three-year-old in Japan who narrowly denied English Derby hero Ruler Of The World in the Prix Niel. According to trainer Shozo Sasaki Kizuna was just 85% fit for his assignment and will come on in leaps and bounds for the main event, which has led some to pin their hopes on him, whilst others point to the fact that his form is a notch shy of some of his rivals and that he needs to raise his game. I fall into the latter came, albeit marginally, simply because you are taking too much of a chance with him. He does need to improve and, whilst I'm not accusing his handler of misleading us, it does take something of a leap of faith to invest on the basis of his assessment of Kizuna's fitness. Whilst on the topic we must briefly touch on Ruler Of The World himself. He is clearly one of the best of his crop, with his effort in the Prix Niel eclipsing his poor performance in the Irish Derby, and arguably he would have beaten Kizuna if granted a clearer passage. A top European three-year-old he is, but there are others with stronger claims in this race. One most certainly on that list is King George hero Novellist, last seen when winning the Grosser Preis von Baden earlier this month. That performance was some way below his scintillating Ascot win but it was a satisfactory enough display to keep him towards the fore of the Arc betting, and he doesn't actually look a bad price at [7.6] when compared with Orfevre's [3.65]. An interesting point is that none of the "trials" winners' efforts matched up to Novellist's King George win in sectional terms, as highlighted by Simon Rowlands, and it is important to remember that with the King George field lacking something in depth. Novellist was seen to maximum effect that day, travelling well in the perfect position off a strong pace, but he was impressive nonetheless and is clearly a top-class performer. The strength of his personal performance in that race entitles him to be favourite here, so there is plenty of leeway in the price, and he is certainly a leading contender. The Fugue seems destined for the Breeders' Cup, which strikes as being the right move, though were she to turn up in the Arc on ground good or quicker she would have a mighty chance. My world limit is not sufficient to discuss Intello and Flintshire in detail, but I'm harbouring stamina doubts over the former and the latter would ideally need a sound surface, and write off triple Group 1 winner Al Kazeem at your peril. Ultimately the question is this: Where do we turn in order to find the 2013 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner? Style says Treve but substance and price say Novellist, and it is in him that we shall place our faith. Recommendation: Back Novellist in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
This is shaping up to be a cracking race, with at least half a dozen contenders who have the potential not only to win an Arc, but to record a very good figure in doing so. With extremes of going unlikely, there has to be a good chance that all the main contenders will turn up, though both The Fugue and Al Khazeem, who would hold e/w chances, are to some extent ground dependent. I have only 2 doubts about Treve's chances. First, she'll need luck in running as it's fairly evident she'll be held up and will have to surge past tiring horses when Frankie hits the afterburners, and secondly, something else may be better than her. But that won't be by much imo.
‘Mr Timeform’ clearly flunked Journalism school, having to make apologies for running out of word space to discuss leading contenders Al Kazeem, Flintshire and Intello whilst giving an in-depth discussion of Treve’s entire four race career, a brief discourse of the Japanese ‘Derby’ winner Kizuna beating the Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World in the Prix Niel; and Orfevre’s need for psychoanalysis. The odds for his selection Novellist have not exactly collapsed with his stopwatch assessment. There was a piece in the Racing Post highlighting the way that punters have latched on to the flashy chestnut Prix Foy winner who is now likely to go off favourite not just with the British bookies but on the PMU as several thousand Japanese race fans descend on Longchamp on race day. The latest best odds (src: Oddschecker), omitting the mug bets, reads: 5/2 Orfevre 9/2 Treve* 13/2 Novellist 8/1 Kizuna 12/1 Intello, Flintshire, Ruler Of The World 16/1 Al Kazeem 22/1 The Fugue 25/1 Leading Light*, Ocovango, Manndawi 33/1 Maxios, Wild Coco, Lucky Speed, Sky Hunter, Talent* 40/1 Penglai Pavilion, Morandi, Ridasiyna 50/1 Camelot, Meandre, Trading Leather, Silasol, Battle Of Marengo, Libertarian, Masterstroke (* = needs to be supplemented, 3 October) Curiously, on the France Galop website, the race times for Arc day are stated as being 13:45 to 18:40 for the nine race card. Last year’s first race was at 13:20 local time.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/24324486 LEADING LIGHT is added to the Arc field. In their reaction to the addition, Stan James and BetVictor both go 11/8 that the first reason for his poor run was that 'The Leger took a lot out of him being so close', whilst Coral were a standout 7/2 that he 'had a lot of hard races this season'. PaddyPower go 100/1 that O'Brien blames John Magnier or makes any reference to 'the boys' as part of his excuse for his down the field finish.
That's £80+ grand down the drain! Wonder what the odds are on Leading Light moving to Mike de Kock in the future?
Supplementary entries for the Arc are not until Thursday 3rd October, but I concur with the opinion that adding Leading Light to the field is a waste of money; however, I guess that the hundred thousand Euros is pocket change to the Coolmore operation. Given that no horse has ever done the double and that this year’s St Leger appeared to be no better than average, this does appear to be expensive tilting at windmills. I wonder if Coolmore have a plan in mind regarding their other entries – we will have to wait and see if they have multiple runners and what draws they get...
