Hi Quartermoon. More horses return for a second crack at the Arc than you might think, although its a matter of opinion as to whether they're top horses. E.G. Shareta 2nd to Danedream & 9th last year. SNA 5th to Danedream & 11th last year. Workforce won & 12th to Danedream next year. Danedream was an intended runner last year. Nakayama Festa 2nd to Workforce & 11th to Danedream. Hurricane run Won & 3rd to Rail Link etc If we get good ground, I think Flintshire, Intello, Treve, Novellist, The Fugue & possibly chicquita all look potentially better than anything Orfevre faced last year in the conditions with Kizuna a complete unknown quantity to me. All a matter of opinion though & soft ground/Draw could level the playing field again.
Re the draw. On Very soft ground the field tend to get more strung out with several not handling the conditions, but on Goodish ground they tend to be much more tightly packed with many trying to make their moves at roughly the same time. From the back you then have to come very wide giving lots of ground or risk considerable interference. On Good ground, I think the draw is always an important factor. Even the exceptional Zarkava saved ground from her low draw at the back, before making her move coming wide off the final bend.
If you had said just mares, I would have assumed that your selling plater was going to be a mare as well and you were hoping that Orfevre would be more interested in following the band of mares rather than the one he was racing. If your selling plater was a gelding, I assume that he would not be interested in the mares or stallions. Either way, you do appear to be assuming that Orfevre is a randy Japanese...
I like the way Novellist galloped all the way to the line at Ascot. His ability- given a decent draw- to lay up with the pace can be a big asset at Longchamp. Treve would be my second choice- she's almost certain to be supplemented and Frankie Dettori will ride.
Treve is entered for the Prix Vermeille on Sunday and I think that the Arc supplementary entry fee is small change to the owner.
Very disappointed to see chicquita has been withdrawn from the Vermeille. Last comments I saw from connections stated that this was her next target & was looking forward to her rematch with Treve. Spoke to Claire, Racing secretary to Lady Cecil, re Hot Snap the other day & she said she would go where they had rain. Surprisingly,she dismissed any likelyhood of going for the Arc.
After some excellent trials, causing some fluctuation in the market for the big one, here are the odds as at 16.15 (UK time), showing market movement (in or out) Orfevre (4)in, Treve (5)in, Novellist (6)out, Kizuna (8)in, Ruler Of The World (10)in, Flintshire (12)out, Intello (14)out, Al Kazeem (16)out, The Fugue (16)out, Leading Light (20), Manndawi (25), Ocovango (25)in, Bravodino (33), Galileo Rock (33), Lucky Speed (33), Maxios (33), Ocean Park (33), Olympic Glory (33), Penglai Pavilion (33), Sapphire (33) , Sky Hunter (33), Talent (33), Toronado (33), Trading Leather (33), Triple Threat (33)out, Wild Coco (33), Dunaden (40)out, Masterstroke (40), Meandre (40), Morandi (40)out, Ridasiyna (40), Vancouverite (40)out, Battle Of Marengo (50), Camelot (50), Hillstar (50), Liber Nauticus (50), Libertarian (50), Mars (50), Moth (50), Pastorius (50), Sabor A Triunfo (50), Saint Baudolino (50), Silasol (50), Sugar Boy (50), Tres Blue (50), Very Nice Name (50), What A Name (50), Windhoek (50), Yellow And Green (50), Bayrir (66), Dawalan (66), Feuerblitz (66), Great Heavens (66), Hot Snap (66), Kesampour (66), Mandour (66), Secret Gesture (66), Shikarpour (66)out, Siyenica (66), Alumna (100), Chopin (100)out, Haya Landa (100), Saint Thomas (100), Saonois (100)
We first saw Orfevre 18 months ago when he cocked his jaw and tried to run out, almost pulled up into last, then ran the most remarkable race to finish 2nd and my daughter fell in love with that horse (referring to him as a little **** with bags of talent). In many ways he reminds us of our homebred stallion which would explain why she fell in love with him. We watched him today and he retains that character but, kept to the inside rail by CS, he was nursed along and let go to win in awesome fashion. As a result I am now under strong pressure to go to the Arc this year. It's hard to see that anything could have enough armoury to beat him, provided he behaves. He looks awesome and he is awesome and, regardless of how good Treve might be, I'm not looking any further than him for the winner of this year's Arc. He is a power house. I notice that he was the slowest of the 3 trials but this was a walk in the park for him and he will be suited by a stronger pace. I like Novellist and have the utmost respect for Treve (who ran the fastest trial) but I really like Orfevre and just can't see past him. Poor sod; I've just put an extra stone on his back.
Nothing has changed my mind after today, and some firms do indeed now go 3/1, although a couple continue to dangle the 4s .........................
Been grabbing lots of 17 & 19 on Betfair re Flintshire this afternoon after laying him for the Neil. As I said before, he should have been nearer 500/1 for the Arc based on his only previous Soft ground run & will be a completely different proposition with a low draw if the ground is Good on Arc day. I also said that 11/8 with Betfred about Orfevre today looked vey generous as I couldn't see anything to beat it in the absence of Novellist & Al Kazeem. Simply won a poor race today & wouldn't get too excited. Treve looked impressive.
I have been and got the British bookies prices courtesy of Oddschecker. Whilst I appreciate that the bookies price the race up according to their liabilities and what punters want to back, I cannot help but feel that Treve will end up favourite on the PMU because the French never back foreign horses. Most of the money that goes on Orfevre will be from what I expect to be a very sizeable Japanese contingent on 6 October. 4/1 Orfevre 9/2 Treve* 6/1 Novellist 8/1 Kizuna 10/1 Ruler Of The World 12/1 Flintshire 14/1 Intello 16/1 Al Kazeem, The Fugue 20/1 Leading Light* 25/1 Ocovango, Manndawi 33/1 Trading Leather, Maxios, Wild Coco, Talent*, Penglai Pavilion, Triple Threat, Sky Hunter 40/1 Dunaden, Vancouverite*, Meandre (* = needs to be supplemented) My ante post bet on Flintshire does not look so hot now as he really needs it to dry up in the next three weeks to give him a chance; however, I expect like a few here, I will be cheering for the Japanese raider to create a bit of history.
I accept that the race didn't pan out favourably for Orfevre last year, but the race was terribly weak, and runners up don't usually go back to win it. I've thought all along that the race rests between Novellist and Treve, and the former's sustained run for home may take the spoils.
Sorry Ron. Badly phrased but don't know how to 'cut & paste' my earlier remarks & was trying to make the point that the trials worked out as predicted. Made the point that could get soft ground for the trials, Flintshire wouldn't act on it & would get some AP value on him as a result. I'm not getting cold feet now its happened & plunged in on what looks like great value to me. I actually thought that Flintshire ran very well given his previous Soft ground performance & just couldn't produce his normal 'Turn of Foot' in the conditions. Also think that Intello will turn up, particularly if it went Soft again on Arc day & Flintshire was withdrawn. Orfevre showed what I expected, easily beating the likes of Very nice Name, but, to put it into perspective, Very Nice Name was 21 L behind Novellist at Ascot.
Noticed Charlton was quoted as saying that the likely G/S ground would suit Al Kazeem in the Arc. I would have thought it brave to call the ground, even 48 hrs before the race ! Considering the Trial times, I suspect the drying ground was quite holding & sticky by racetime & could be very different for the Arc, so I've continued to back Flintshire in hope for better ground in the Arc. Don't know what to make of Intello's participation in the Prince D'Oronge on Saturday. Warm up for Arc two weeks later or Ascot 4 weeks later ? He's my second string for the Arc with Treve as 3rd string from potential winnings perspective.
Charlton has history in his favour. The ground is not usually any better than good on Arc weekend because of the time of year and the watering policy. When I walked across the course at Longchamp on Sunday, it did not seem that soft at all and there was a substantial covering of grass. I do not know whether they actually got any of the forecast rain on Saturday as I was there and back in a day on the Eurostar. Granted I weigh considerably less than a racehorse but I was not sinking into the ground. The fact that Maxios won the Prix Du Moulin by a street does not lead me to think that the ground was good because his best performances have all been with give underfoot. I would not be betting on anything ante post now until the week of the race when we have an idea what the ground will be like and, of course, the draw is made a couple of days before the race. I have to say that I am more inclined to think that Intello will head to Ascot. He could potentially have a choice of engagements there in either the Champion Stakes or the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Personally, I do not think that he will stay a mile and a half so he will only go to the Arc if the owners decree it. Criquette Head-Maarek has held Treve in high regard for a long time and has been quite open about it, so I think she really is the three year old that has the best chance of flooring Orfevre. Whilst we bemoan the lack of quality in last year’s field, the only quality I see amongst the older horses this year is Novellist and most of the three year olds have question marks against them. I am aware that Orfevre has all the statistics against him but I still think he can make history on 6th October.
There seem to be a few of us that believe the 3 main contenders are Orfevre, Treve and Novellist and that any other winner could be considered a bit of a surprise. So where could the surprise come from? When I watched Al Kazeem beat Camelot with what looked like contemptuous ease and looking like an improver I earmarked him as our main Arc hope. But he hasn't exactly set the world alight since then and, although he has only run in 10f races since then and could therefore improve over further, I'm prepared to accept I was wrong on this one. My next 2 on the list are Talent and Leading Light. Talent was impressive in the English Oaks and can be excused her run on ground too firm at the Curragh. Ran a good race in the Leger and 12f on GS going is probably her optimum. Leading Light is so versatile that distance and going seem immaterial. However: how many Leger winners have won the Arc? Answer 1. How many Leger winners have won the Arc in the same year? Answer 0. On the face of it, that is a bit disconcerting but what I don't know the answer to is how many Leger winners have actually run in the Arc in the same year as winning the Leger. Richard Hughes rode Talent in the English Oaks so if he doesn't ride her in the Arc that would put me off her. The form lines between Ocovango, Ruler of the World, Trading Leather, Flintshire and Kizuna are confusing me and it would be no surprise if they ended up together either down the field or around the places. All in all, I can't see past the top 3 and I'm struggling to pick out a single selection to maybe grab a place at the expense of one of those. Although I would love to see Orfevre win, I'm coming round to the idea that Novellist is the form horse and Orfevre may have to settle for second again with Treve filling 3rd place. I hope the possible "to be supplemented" are supplemented to make this a very intriguing Arc. If Talent is supplemented and Richard Hughes rides that will probably be my choice of the rest.
The Fugue was trading at 40/1 on Betfair today. She's no mug on good ground. Fair chance of Softish ground but Old Adage about weather predictions in these parts; Don't bet on it.
