If Orfevre is as good as last year, he should easily win the Foy, despite soft ground. 11/8 with Betfred looks very generous. If he can't beat these on soft, I'd be even less optimistic for the Arc. The only potential threat looks to be Camelot if back to his best, but he hates really Soft ground. For now, I'm assuming that it will be proper soft ground on the day, with all the rain due tonight & tomorrow according to the forecasts I've seen.
I am expecting some upsets on Sunday. The Prix Niel has attracted an unusually high turnout, but four of them are for Andre Fabre. There is a good chance that Flintshire will be turned over but who picks up the prize will depend on how the race is run. I am surprised to see Romantica in the Prix Vermeille because after she won the Prix Jean Romanet, Fabre nominated the Prix de l’Opera as her next run. She could give Treve most to think about but Silasol might be worth looking at as she won on Arc day last year. I think that the Prix Foy will be Camelot’s last race as he has no realistic chance on this year’s form; however, I do not think that Orfevre is any good thing because I note that he has no pacemaker this year. With the older horses having mostly defected from the Prix Du Moulin, this does look set up for Olympic Glory but I do not expect that he will be any sort of price on the PMU so I may just be watching.
Hi Quartermoon. I've also had a small EW on Silasol with BetVic, 14/1 as I think she is better on Soft ground. Good point re no pacemaker for Orfevre this year. Is Stellar Wind a front runner ? If on song, I can't see what can beat Orfevre & he does have great acceleration if it did turn into a sprint.
Unfortunately I'm out all day but would appreciate a ground assessment from anyone watching Longchamp races today. Many Thanks.
They are not racing at Longchamp on Saturday. As to your previous point, I have no idea whether Stellar Wind is a front runner. It is interesting that the Orfevre camp never entered their pacemaker so maybe he did not travel over and they think they do not need him after last year. I will not get to see the state of the ground until I get to Longchamp but punters watching at home should watch the first race (Prix du Petit Couvert, 1000m) as the sprint course is the back straight in reverse.
As predicted earlier, Huge over reaction on Betfair to Flintshire's run on Soft. Been taking/topping up at 17 & 19 this afternoon in hope of Good ground in 3 weeks.
Greetings folks. Let me start with the bad news. If you are planning on visiting Longchamp for Arc weekend, you need to get in your loan application now or remortgage everything. The ticket prices have gone up to a massive six Euros on Saturday and you will have to shell out a stonking ten Euros on Sunday. There is a concession: for fourteen Euros you can have a two day ticket. “Qatar Arc Trials” Day was still free but was just as poorly attended by our Gallic neighbours as always; however, attendance was boosted substantially by a noticeable Japanese contingent. One guy had even bought the tallest woman in Japan, a stunning piece of talent who must have been 5’ 8” or 5’ 9”. Before racing I had the opportunity to talk to one of the Japanese photographers down at the winning post on the sprint course. I asked about the misleadingly named Blarney Stone, the Japanese horse in the first. He told me that it is Orfevre’s lead horse on the gallops and it is not very fast (its form figures are all duck eggs) but they were letting it have a run since it was here. No surprise that it was a no-show at the business end of the race. I forgot to ask about Kizuna in the Prix Niel but did mention the two Prix Foy runners from the Land of the Rising Sun. I was told not to underestimate Stellar Wind as he is a very good horse back home; however, he felt that Orfevre was probably going to need the race after his long layoff. I could not find him after the race for a revised opinion! Looking at the stopwatch, the fastest of the three Trials was the Prix Vermeille (2:36.82) just ahead of the Prix Niel (2:37.64), where the pacemaker Preempt was totally ignored by the whole field. The Prix Foy was slowest by some way at 2:41.47 but that must have been a combination of the slow race and the easing of Orfevre. Has to be a concern about the validity of the Prix Niel form as they all finished in a heap (and I actually thought that Ruler Of The World had won before I saw a replay). In the Prix Vermeille, Treve won very comfortably, but was this a Group 1 race in name only? Also, how good was the opposition that Orfevre slaughtered? How good are this year’s three year old milers? Maxios ruthlessly dented a couple of reputations in the Prix Du Moulin. He has only been out of the first two in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes this term; three wins from five now.
