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Daily Thread - Saturday 14th September - St Leger Day

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by stick, Sep 14, 2013.

  1. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    I cant wait any longer for someone else to start this..............

    I am really keen on WHAT ABOUT CARLO 5.00 Donny 4-1. Have a look at his Goodwood win. He was still as green as grass, wandered all over the place but still cosily beat a horse that has won since by one and a half lengths without being shown the stick. I think the handicapper has seriously undervalued the form.

    Off to see my filly today and see how she has progressed in the last couple of weeks.

    Good luck all today. Not that you need it as the tipping on here has been sensational.
     
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  2. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Am only on my mobile at the mo so have been waiting for some one to put up the daily thread so cheers stick!
    Let us know how she's getting too! Let us know if shes Cheltenham bound haha
    Two I like today

    2.55 Chester -,Cameron highland 3/1- is a good thing despite the penalty and is the horse on form
    2.40 Doncaster- our Jonathon 14/1- will like the ground and is off a vert attractive mark definately worth an e/w shout
     
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  3. DreverSpur

    DreverSpur Well-Known Member

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    Morning boys and girls!!

    Again, doing one of those Lucky 15's so I have something to keep me interested...

    2:20 Chester - You Da One 13/2
    2:40 Doncaster - Steps 10/1
    2:55 Chester - Area Fifty One 8/1

    3:50 Doncaster - Leading Light 9/2

    Good luck all!!
     
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  4. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    Morning all, 2 for me today ....

    As per the St Leger thread - Talent 16/1 E.W . Decent sized bet - i see Ladbrokes are now going 6/1 !!!. The ground has come right and she will stay. I think she will come back to form and has a cracking chance.

    Doncaster 2.40pm - Elusivity 12/1 GP E.W . Has not been running too well last couple of runs but does go well with cut in the ground and Doncaster's 5 furlongs takes a bit of getting which will play to Elusivity's strengths as the horse stays 6 furlongs well.
     
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  5. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    The final Classic is anybody’s guess. If you can figure out how the race is going to unfold you might have an idea where to put your money. I wonder if Godolphin might have some ‘team’ tactics worked out to give one of theirs a chance. Just for the sake of making a selection, I will go with Talent to become a dual Classic winner as the Goodwood form of Excess Knowledge looks suspect.

    Tomorrow at Longchamp, I think that Olympic Glory will take some beating in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp but the odds might be quite skinny on the PMU and with British bookies.

    After the horror show in Dallas featuring six turnovers (two for touchdowns), the New York Giants return home to the Superbowl venue to host Denver. As the Manning brothers face off, Peyton is the more likely to be there next February after a seven TD opening day display and New York are facing an 0-2 start.
     
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  6. Bostonbob

    Bostonbob Well-Known Member

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    I'm already on What About Carlo, Stickles. He's a great bet at 4/1.

    Alive Alive Oh is really exciting today. I'm not betting her at 2/1 but very interesting to see how she gets on.
     
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  7. Bostonbob

    Bostonbob Well-Known Member

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    They've pulled it.
     
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  8. Brough Tiger

    Brough Tiger Well-Known Member

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    Should we run a sweepstakes for at what time Alive Alive Oh is declared a non runner?
     
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  9. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Having my usual go at the Scoop 6 with accompanying ew lucky 63:

    2:05 Doncaster - The Grey Gatsby 7/2
    2:20 Chester - Gatepost 14/1
    2:40 Doncaster - Our Jonathan 14/1
    2:55 Chester - Cubanita 9/2
    3:15 Doncaster - Sirius Prospect 8/1
    3:50 Doncaster - Libertarian 6/1

    There's just a couple i fancy over in Ireland at the Curragh too; 3:00 Bubbly Bellini 16/1 & 5:10 Straight of Zanizibar 10/1 both ew
     
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  10. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    I thought Foundry would be a better price than 6/1, but I suppose since Epsom in June the bookies will be wary of the Ballydoyle 2nd string, especially with the best flat jockey in Europe on board. He was having only his 2nd run, and his seasonal debut, when finishing runner up to Telescope at York. It's not unreasonable to expect there'll be more to come, and while I don't claim to be able to read a pedigree, there is a 1m6f Gd1 winner on the Dam's side which must give hope of him staying the trip.
     
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  11. L_M

    L_M Active Member

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    The two horses for me in the St. Leger are Libertarian and Talent - always thought Libertarian would be suited for the St. Leger after his run in the Derby, staying on best of all to finish second. The ground was too fast for him in the Irish Derby. Talent can easily be forgiven her lacklustre effort in the Irish Oaks. I'm prepared to overlook Leading Light, how many Queen's Vase winners have won the St. Leger? Would rather back stable companion Foundry.
     
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  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    With you on those 3 london_man. I've plumped for Foundry, being lightly raced, a soft ground winner, good second to Telescope (on firmer), top jockey. Would be more than happy to see one of the the two winning though (being by New Approach).
     
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  13. SMP

    SMP Member

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    Outstrip, bogart, gregoeian, foundry. First 4 at donny in a Heinz and singles
     
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  14. Brough Tiger

    Brough Tiger Well-Known Member

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    Had a long look at the St Leger this morning. I would have been very sweet on the chances of Feel Like Dancing but unfortunately he was taken out, i think he was just outstayed by Leading Light last time and i really fancied him to turn the tables over slightly shorter. There are doubts over the ground for Galileo Rock but is still think he will be there or thereabouts. Libertarian was very disappointing last time and im worried about the break, i dont think he will be winning. It will take a monumental effort from Foundry to win this on just his third start and i think the lack of experience may find him out on this big occasion. The oaks form has fallen apart so cant be having Talent, especially after her last run.

    The key bit of form for me in this is the Great Voltigeur and the Gordon stakes. The Gordon stakes was very messy with Excess Knowledge running an extremely eyecatching race having met all sorts of trouble and he will surely turn the tables on Cap O'Rushes but equally unlucky was Secret Number who was on and off the bridle all the way through the last two furlongs and got no sort of run whatsoever and looked to still have a lot left. Then in the Voltigeur, Secret Number was staying on at the end to finish a good third behind telescope. Albeit he did finish behind Foundry that day i think the step up to 1m6f will suit Secret Number more than Foundry.

    Godolphin have a great record in this race and im going on Secret Number to win another Leger for Saeed Bin Suroor.
     
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  15. Brough Tiger

    Brough Tiger Well-Known Member

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    Elsewhere im with Wooly and very keen on the chances of Cameron Highland over at Chester, Bishop Roko in the 4.25 at Donny and im giving another chance to Monsieur Chevalier in the 2.40 at Donny. The Lennox stakes at Goodwood showed that he still retains some of his old ability and i think he is suited by shorter than 7 furlongs these days. 25/1 ill have a small e/w on him
     
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  16. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Good afternoon folks, a rare visit to the board from me. Today is St Leger day which means for most of you a) the jumps season is on the way and b) for me the St Leger is always interesting for a value hunt.

    I've been fortunate to collect on Arctic Cosmos and Masked Marvel and had Michaelangelo back in 3rd last season.

    Primarily I'm here to give my thoughts on the jumps season as I have always had a pretty solid idea of who my 10 to follow having watched a lot of last seasons action, so I'll leave my list for you to analyse at some point over the weekend, as I know you have already started debating. As you know I don't follow anything week in week out these days, so I will be having my own little fun Antepost portfolio this year instead, meaning I can rock up in March to see how we fair without the dramas and perils of the lower grade stuff.

    I'm delving in with a St Leger bet though today too which I thought I would share. Galileo Rock would be 5/2 favourite if this ground was good to firm and his new price of 5/1 reflects his chances- I think he will struggle to go on the ground and all of his better performances have come on firmer footing. Leading Light stays but I think this is a progressive horse that might find himself not quite progressive enough. None of the Godolphin lot are good enough and presumably they might have ruined Libertarian, who if he turns up in top form would have a great chance but its a big ask to bounce right back from his Irish Derby run.

    Excess Knowledge ought to be clear favourite as he is a Monsun (loves the ground), has stamina in abundance, trained by John Gosden, and ridden by the man of the moment James Doyle. So am suspicious as to why the bookies are dangling 11/2 around this morning.

    GREAT HALL (Halling- L'Affaire Monique) :Halling stayed 10f well and his record on good to soft or softer reads 111. The dam, L'Affaire Monique, was 6th in the 2002 Irish Oaks, having previously hacked up in a soft ground maiden. I am no expert in horse actions but Great Hall seems to have a high knee action and the fact he won warm handicaps on a much quicker surface bodes well, comfortably in control at the finish having made it look hard work. I think he will be outpaced today at a point in the race before coming home very stoutly, and therefore I rate him a real value bet at the current prices. He is on the upgrade, and for me there is an air of confidence from the Meehan camp as well as one or two whispers for him when he was due to run at York. There is plenty of stamina on the dam side and I'm very confident about the trip- the question is the class. It looks like this has been on the Meehan agenda for some time and it is not always flashy types who win this- the classier horses so often can get found out with 2f left to run when we reach crunch time. Also, I don't remember Meehan ever really tilting at windmills in my short time following racing, his only Group1 runners at 3YO I can think of are DELEGATOR (prior to joining Godolphin right?) and MOST IMPROVED (St James Palace 2012)..

    So there we go- GREAT HALL 28/1 e.w, because I can't have Galileo Rock (ground)/Leading Light/Godolphin/ which leaves me 28/1 against the twice-raced (but very likeable) Foundry, the extremely talented but sometimes keen Talent, and the rank outsiders.

    Foundry would be worth a saver if he touches anything upwards of 7/1 (with the risk being inexperience and hence might bomb- but he hacked up like a serious horse on soft ground last autumn) and watch out for any Ryan Moore/Ballydoyle connections- smiler might be on his way there with Doyle riding for the Prince and Hanagan for the Sheikh (Stoutes two best providers).

    Best of luck to ya, I'll have a chat about the jumps possibly tonight or later on the weekend.
     
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  17. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    Hello chaps - greetings from a damp Hampshire!

    St Leger day, and like a few others, I'm of the opinion that young JOB has chosen the wrong horse - Foundry for me.

    I won't be able to interact during the racing as the pub who's WiFi I'm currently using has no TV screens, so done my bets and off to watch from the warmth and comfort of the motorhome. Although too many losers, could see me back here trying to recoup losses towards the end of the day!

    My telly bets are old fav Aljaamaheer (spelling?) plus The Grey Gatsby, Ajjadd, Mehdi, and taking another chance with Star Lahib

    Good luck all <ok>
     
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  18. tward07

    tward07 Well-Known Member

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    Leading light has been 1 of my favourite horses this year, the attitude he shows to just keep finding more and more is very impressive. But going with Talent today, bolted up in the oaks on Good to soft with a fast pace which she will no doubt find today with Leading light. Scrub the last run and i think we'll be seeing a classic double for her.

    Elsewhere a stat that has popped up today on my twitter feed is in the 5.05 Bath Fanrouge has form figures around the track of 111144 - which changes to 111 over 5f. Currently 3/1

    Lucky 15 for me will be

    The Gray Gatsby
    Cristoforo Colombo
    Talent
    Fanrouge

    Good luck all
     
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  19. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    afternoon gang

    Great Gatsby and Voodoo Prince are primed to run good races, Ive also gone for Our Jonathon, Sirius Prospect and Gal Rock

    stay frosty
     
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  20. You See

    You See Well-Known Member

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    Morning all not much time today and not much value out there for my liking so ew lucky 31 small stakes
    Al muhreer
    Hanovariun baron
    Sirius prospect
    Come on dave
    Star lahib
    Good luck all
     
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