Morning all. Only two for me today. 4.40 haydock Euston Square 3/1 5.50 Salisbury Catchanova 4/1 Both fairly short prices but I like both horses. Good luck all
going for a lucky 15 today, Olivers Mount 5 50 Sal ---unexposed and gelded-been running in hot maidens Candelita 3 55 Sedg-- looked good chasing home the cockney mackem iirc goes well sent out in quick succession. Flemish School 7 40 K- G Butlers 'sungate' squad who have all been winning recently--first handicap Tantshi- 4 20 Sal-- Varians running much better now, notmuch to find with indignant. good luck if any play !
4.30 Sedgefield Agent Archie - should have the beating of these on form and ran a nice pipe-opener last time out when trying to give weight away. He should be spot on for this and at a general 3/1 offers a bit of value. I'd have him favourite at around 7/4, i think his form is much better than that of Mount Vesuvius, who won a weak affair at Stratford last time out and carries a 7lbs penalty.
Alutiq has good form in the book and hopefully get the better of Frankels sister in the 3.45 Beverley. Good ew price but only 2 places
That's Salsibury not Beverley Wardy - but this is Joyeuse's to lose. I have her in the forecast with Lilbourne Lass Also doing f/c bets with Venue and Fennel Bay in the 15-35 Haydock doubled with Firebeam in the following race. Good luck all
Bloomin eck Oddy, looks like Durham are going to pip the White Rose to the cricket title...!!! Only 2 weeks ago it was going to be theirs for the taking... http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/county-championship-division-one/table Saying that youve both got Sussex to play... Still game on...
They tonked us at home last week mate - Championship decider and we bottled it. I think Durham have beaten Sussex today haven't they? All over bar the shouting. Sorry about Agent Archie SMP - really thought he would go close today, very disappointed with that effort.
8.10 Kempton Our Golden Girl 20/1 I'm having a small dabble on Our Golden Girl in what looks an incredibly weak contest tonight. She's been very poor on her last 4 starts on the turf but returns to the AW upped to a staying trip of 1m3f on this surface for the first time and given that she clearly seems much better on an artificial surface I'm hoping of a decent showing with first time blinkers enlisted. Prior to her poor turf showings, she had run well over 7f at Kempton twice back in May off 3lb higher marks of 56 and I also thought she was a filly who would appreciate a trip. In this very poor contest, she gets a lovely 8lb weight for age allowance being a 3 year old and this bottom weight also gets the assistance of the excellent Robert Tart who takes a further 5lb off and get her down to a lovely racing weight of 8-6. Shaun Lycett is not a prolific trainer of winners and it was back in March that he had his last flat success but he did have a hurdle scorer not too long back and his winners come at intermittent levels. Stall 9 isn't a great help and there are definitely doubts surrounding her but this is about as poor a race as you are likely to find and I'm hoping the application of first time blinkers, the return to the AW over a staying trip and a low weight can hopefully see her run a nice race - although there is a strong chance she finishes out with the washing.
Its a rough old race that ROTO. In these low grade handicaps, does it make sense to look for a relatively unexposed horse to perhaps do the business? In this race I would tend to put a line through the 4YO+ horses and hope that one of the 3YOs might come on a bit from their last run. I like your argument about Our Golden Girl but if I were to strike a bet (which I most definitely won't be doing) I would perhaps look at George Baker's horse Lucky Black Star. The Lawman gelding went closest on his 2 Polytrack starts at Wolves (3rd and 5th) and could be equally well suited to a return to the artificial surface tonight, and I think the step up to 11F will be to his liking. As Hundred Acre Wood has shown bugger all I'll take a small reverse forecast on our two 3YOs to fill the first 2 places - Our Golden Girl and Lucky Black Star. Damn, I'll have to watch the race now
She's a horse that has shaped encouragingly on a number of occasions over shorter trips on the AW and is a horse I've tentatively been watching for quite a while. She's absolutely no more than moderate but with an 8lb weight for age allowance, return to AW and back up in trip she's worth a little dabble. If she's woeful today (which is a strong possibility) I'll never have another penny on her again. Wouldn't normally go near a race this bad with a barge pole and won't be again after this but given that I've followed her a bit and she looks a feasible contender I've had a small investment.
i8ndeed its desperate stuff, but the unexposed must be given the chance--notice they are both much shorter on the tote .....at the moment
Reminds me of the old "King Of The Sands" comp we used to run on 606 - studying crappy midweek all-weather races
just a note--roger varian ran three today--they all won- 7/2, 33/1, evens --just like his mentor mr jarvis start and finnish the season strongly...
