Looked over today's French Derby at Chantilly and I think the pick on value could be Prairie Star. Came second to Baraan on his seasonal debut and has since won a fairly decent group 2 at longchamp. This horse has plenty of experience and has never come out of the top three in seven starts. I think at 20s on Betfair and around 7.5 to place this horse could provide some good value. I think the most likely winner is the unexposed Baraan but he only beat Prairie by three quarters of a length and is a quarter of the price.
I like Casamento who I thought was another who got taken off its feet in the Guineas and showed enough that day to suggest that this trip is going to be much more ideal. Roderic came out of that race to win in Ireland and I think Casamento can do the same here. Roderic is a good horse but I feel he could be vulnerable in what looks a better field than he saw over in Ireland. An interesting race but I don't think its anywhere near the quality of our Derby.
No I agree with you there Nassau, I think our Derby will prove in time that the field was a lot stronger than everybody is giving credit for. I think the winner showed an absolutely remarkable turn of foot to pick up the leaders. Think he'll have an outstanding chance in the Arc getting 8 pounds from Workforce and So You Think. Whatever the result though this year's Arc should be a brilliant race.
Tin Horse had a strong win in the Guineas and has to be a very strong chance again today. Winning form is good form. It's always hard to win in a foreign land, so Casamento and Roderic O'Connor have the job ahead. But if anyone can do it today, it would have to be the two powerhouses, Coolmore and Darley. Tin Horse. (love that name)
If Baraan wins today it will look so obvious with hindsight. He won comfortably over this distance last time out with Pour Moi (at 12/1 no less) behind in 3rd. On the other hand, if he runs unplaced how will that reflect on the derby form? It looks like a good race and I'm going to take a chance that Baraan upholds the Derby form. At 5/1, freely available at present, he has to be a decent ew bet. Crackerjack King for a place. I like the look of Peinture Abstraite in the Sandringham (purely on breeding, unbeaten, unexposed) 6/1 with Ladbrokes & WH. A hopeful ew bet.
Yes I think you are right Ron, would be absolutely no surprise if he wins, I might play the Reverse Forecast with him and Prairie Star having already covered them both EW and hope for a huge pay day lol. Is it possible to back Reverse Forecast on French racing?
If you are having a wager on the Prix Du Jockey Club, make sure that you are aware that the Aga Khan's two runners will be coupled on the PMU so if you only want to be on one of them (Baraan or Sandagiyr) take the British odds. Baraan should be the favourite. He beat Prairie Star last time, who then went and franked the form with victory in the Prix Hocquart at Longchamp where Andre Fabre's Grand Vent lost in a photo. I still think that Prairie Star is a major contender. Sandagiyr is a half-brother to last year's Prix de Diane winner Sarafina and the fact that he is taking his chance even though he is only thrice-raced (two wins) makes me think that he is well regarded. The Poule d'Essai Des Poulains winner Tin Horse comes here trying to emulate last year's dual winner Lope De Vega. My biggest concern here is whether the grey will stay. Pascal Bary's Glaswegian was well beaten that day and it is hard to think of a reason why he will feature today. The two principal raiders are Irish Guineas winner Roderic O'Connor and English flop Casamento. I do not see Roderic O'Connor trying to make all here as I think there are question marks about whether he will stay. Arguably Casamento has the best form in the race, but there must be a serious doubt now about the Racing Post Trophy 2010 form. It will be interesting to see Behkabad's seasonal debut in the Prix de Chantilly later on the card with Poet and Allied Powers opposing as useful markers to how good the form could turn out to be.
Yes will be interesting to see how Behkabad gets on later, for me he and Planteur were both a little over rated last season and I'm quite interested in Ley Hunter at around the six to one mark. Looking forward to seeing Planteur in the Prince of Wales in just over a week though to have some idea as to how So You Think matches up to some of the form from last year.
If you backed the favourite Baraan in the Prix Du Jockey Club, you knew your fate within seconds of the stalls opening. Having missed the kick he would have needed to be another Pour Moi. That he managed to salvage third and only went down by a couple of lengths suggests how lucky Reliable Man was to retain his unbeaten record, but that's racing. I will assume that Frankie's decision to try and make all on Casamento was planned in the hope that the Frankel effect might strike twice in a season. As it turned out, the best of the raiders was John Gosden's unconsidered Colombian. He might be worth keeping an eye on the rest of the season. I think that Roderic O'Connor simply did not stay as he held every chance until the last few hundred metres. The Poulains winner Tin Horse may not have got home either. The interesting support races on the card were the Prix de Sandringham and the Grand Prix de Chantilly. Behkabad could not quite give away his penalty in the Grand Prix although it may not turn out to have been such a bad result with Silver Pond collecting after injury had curtailed his three-year-old campaign. Anybody looking for clues to next weekend's Prix de Diane (French Oaks) has been clearly pointed at Andre Fabre's Poule d'Essai des Pouliches winner Golden Lilac. The from was franked unequivocally in the Prix de Sandringham when Immortal Verse caught Mixed Intention in the shadow of the post, both having been unplaced at Longchamp on 15th May.
