Why Alonso is still the main threat to Vettel and not Lewis IMO

Last "half" (9 races) of the season, in all title fighting championships:

Alonso**
2005: 2nd, 1st, 11th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 1st (avg: 3)
2006: 5th, 2nd, 5th, RET, 2nd, RET, 2nd, 1st, 2nd (avg: 2.7)
2007: 2nd, 1st, 4th, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, RET, 2nd, 3rd (avg: 2.3)
2010: 1st, 2nd, RET, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 7th (avg: 2.3)
2012: RET, 3rd, 3rd, RET, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd (avg: 2.5)

TOTAL AVG: 2.56

Lewis:**
2007: 3rd, 9th, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 4th, 1st, RET, 7th (avg: 4)
2008: 1st, 5th, 2nd, 3rd, 7th, 3rd, 12th, 1st, 5th (avg: 4.3)
2010: 4th, RET, 1st, RET, RET, 5th, 2nd, 4th, 2nd (avg: 3)
2011: 4th, RET, 4th, 5th, 5th, 2nd, 7th, 1st, RET (avg: 4)
2012: RET, 1st, RET, 5th, 10th, 4th, RET, 1st, RET (avg: 4.2)

TOTAL AVG: 3.9

**RET not included in actual result to save fault of error of driver or machine, I believe it will even out as some retirements were from the lead and some were much lower and that we cannot predict the future.

So yeah take into consideration that Vettel will also go up a gear and his worse result this year is 4th x2, I don't think an average of 3.9 by Lewis is going to be enough to make Vettel blink, but a 2.5 from Alonso would and he is closer.

 

Your point is valid that Alonso is a strong finisher in a season, but i still think he can not drag this car much further than he did in 2012. Meanwhile Hamilton has got his first win with Mercedes and also at a track where they would not have been expected to win due to high temps. Not sure, but I think Mercedes are more dangerous to Vettel than Ferrari.

 

The 2012 stats would be much different but for constant Mclaren failures, however Alonso's record is impressive on its own and shows that Ferrari do come on strong in the second half of the season, often after they have had their mid-season slump.

I do think Ferrari are too far behind Red Bull and Mercedes now for Alonso to have a serious crack at the title and he will find himself falling behind, or fired if he opens his trap again!

 

True but I think the main point to focus on is the TOTAL AVG just below for an "accurate average" of what will likely happen as he might of had a lot of car failures 1 year which should not be any fault on Lewis, but he did have a lot of driver errors in 2011 so try to ignore those results as putting a point across for that year alone. My main goal was to even it out as much as possible and trying to smooth out the variables.

 

Isn't this rather ignoring Lotus (who have been very strong in the last two races) and Kimi?

Also shows up that the main threat to Vettel is the fact that his rivals are taking points off one another while he continues to consistently score points.

 

Lotus are the dark horse for both titles.

As for Ferrari, if they don't have a car capable of wining in the next 2 races then they are out.

Mercedes have the strongest car at the moment.

 

Yeah it's basically a closer version of 2011, Seb leads but the rest keep tripping over each other and the gap to 2nd keeps increasing. I ignore Lotus because they don't have the resources and financial power of the other 3 teams, nothing against Kimi or lotus being run but they're human and they wont be able to keep up come the fly aways. But Kimi does seem happy in the 2nd half as well, but again that budget of Lotus can't be helped.

 

This is very relevant. He has not 1 rival for the title but up to 3 or 4, all of whom take points off each other allowing Vettel to move ever clearer in the standings.

 

I don;t think Mercedes' tyre issues are solved and I doubt they will do well in Belgium or Italy, the high speed corners which Hungary is lacking will do them in is my 2 penneth

 

Love the post but I don't necessarily agree. If Mercedes have sorted out their tyres problems, I think Hamilton is a bigger threat to the championship than Vettel.

Ferrari started the season well but have clearly fallen behind and I don't think the change of tyre has helped. Having said that, the F2012 was very competitive in Spa and Monza last year and the F138 is an evolution of that - so I would expect them to do much better in the next two races, maybe even win them. Also in Spain and Canada Alonso ran lower downforce wings and the car looked great. Beyond Monza, my expectations aren't high, and I think the top cars will be in more or less the same spec from Singapore to Brazil.

To be honest I just hope that Ferrari don't mess up their engine. I'm getting sick of James Allen's biased bullshit ('MERCEDES ARE SOO GOING TO DOMINATE!! I LOVE HAMILTON!!').

 

Hard to say really... IF Mercedes are finally on top of their tyre issues, then they could really give RBR a headache in the second half of the season.

If not, then Kimi could be most likeky to give Vettel problems if Ferrari are unable to sort their act out.

It's probably most likely that there will be no challenge to Vettel at all. Only time will tell.

 

It's significant perhaps that Pirelli's spokesman has said that the Mercedes' greater race pace / tyre easiness in Hungary was not a direct result of the changes Pirelli made to the tyres but was actually a result of Mercedes' own updates. Draw your own conclusions, but Belgium and Italy are going to be the real tests... just like Hungary was a real test.

By comparison, Ferrari have actually said nothing about the new tyres but the apparent rumour is that their loss of pace is a direct result of the changes. Doesn't bode well for Alonso unless they bring some serious and, perhaps more critically, immediately effective updates both for the low downforce / car breaker tracks AND for the flyaway leg.

 

I think Alonso/Kimi/Lewis are all threats to Vettel and as a result may hand him the win if they fight amongst themselves. For the championships sake, all three beating Vettel in Spa would be great

 

I strongly disagree on this one, I mean both circuits have huge straights and heavy braking zones aka Mercedes land, and i believe their tyre management is at least as good as the other top teams now, the only advantage Red Bull seem to have now is in the tight twisty sections, i wouldn't be surprised to see Vettels lead over Hamilton in the championship halved by the time we reach Singapore, if Hamilton again finishes ahead of Vettel there, the championship will be over for Vettel.

As far as Alonso goes, they just don't seem to have developed the car this year at all, he might get a podium around Monza i guess, but i can't see him making a serious challenge barring some miracle improvement in the car.

 

All brave statements, I hope your right.

But thats just it, I hope you are right - I do not expect you to be right.

I think Vettel will win the championship comfortably

 

yeah well i'm getting a little bored of the whole playing down the quality of the Mercedes! it's obviously the best car right now and the last couple of races it's looked like the other top teams were even chewing through their tyres faster than the Mercedes were, so yeah the tyre deg will be higher at Spa and Monza but i see it affecting all the teams, not just the Mercedes.

 

I kind of hope you are right just so theres one team challenging Vettel rather than a mess of people taking points off each other. Lotus came 2nd and 3rd in Germany and without Grosjeans incidents they probably would have done the same in Hungary. Where as the Merc was average in Germany and great in Hungary. The Red bull was good/great in Germany and Hungary so they are certainly still up there.

I think the Mercedes was the best in Hungary although that is one of Hamiltons favourites and Rosberg seemed to struggle so maybe not. I don't think one good performance makes any team a nailed on best team so we shall have to see what happens next. I hope Mercedes can continue their immediate form just for the sake of the championship, even if that means Mr Marmite causes all forums to explode by doing well

 

Yup. The Merc might have been the best in Hungary, but that doesn't automatically make it the best out there overall. We'll have to see on that one in the coming races.

I'm hoping the Merc turns out to be tops for the rest of the season though.

 

I think many were surprised at Hamilton's victory. And it is likely that these same people may have a heightened expectation of both him and his car, probably unrealistically. They might do well to take a reality check by putting this into perspective:

There are significant factors which should not be overlooked.

• Hungary is unusual. Not just in its bizarre language but also its Grand Prix circuit.
  
• It is the most technical of all current F1 circuits, rewarding metronomic precision and sustained aggression, yet at the same time requiring a driver to be a pin-sharp opportunist.
• Typical temperatures at this time of year can lead to driver error and 'hot-headedness' in the heat of the moment.
  
• This combination of peculiarities (above) play to Hamilton's strengths probably more than any other single driver.
  
• Despite oppressive heat at this time of year, the venue is relatively easy on tyres.
  
• The Mercedes is a car with very good traction; a premium requirement at this circuit. In this sense, the Mercedes may have a reasonable claim to the best car currently – but this sense only.
  

Bearing this in mind, and the circuits ahead of us – several of which should easily favour Red Bull's aero and/or Lotus and Ferrari chassis – Vettel's lead is relatively comfortable. It currently stands at its largest this season, and does so with an ever declining number of races. In this sense, his march toward a fourth Drivers' title will be very difficult to halt.

Therefore, Vettel's biggest threat is himself.
He can become frustrated when not out ahead, even when an unravelling 'big-picture' still should favour him. In fact, I'd go so far to say that had he not become bogged down with Button, missing opportunities to pass early, he'd have been right up there with Hamilton; and the suggestion that Mercedes have the best car would be offset. If Vettel keeps his head, he should not feel threatened by any other driver.

Who will be in the running, or best placed to pick up the pieces if Vettel trips over his own front wing? Put your money on all three main contenders for 2nd in this year's Drivers' Championship…

 

Cosi... you are applying way too much sense for this place of late You need to lower your standards a bit.