Personally I think a lot of his stamina doubts popped up because of his lazy style as a 2year old with that flat spot he always hit. He doesn't seem to have that anymore. For me the only horse that can beat him is BOM who I think is a really good horse who's done all asked of him. This disregards Telescope who I'm on but couldn't trust to win a group one with no prep race.
I think Dawn Approach could be a really good 10F horse. 12F in my opinion will stretch his stamina too much. There horses in the field that are more suitably bred for a Derby. Especially given the fact he's even money! Joke really. I think the winner will come from Battle Of Marengo or Chopin. I'm quite willing to nail my colours to either mast at this stage.
Have you looked at Battle of Marengo's breeding? Apart from Cavan, his Dam's line is about speed. The mare supplies the stamina more than the stallion (as a rule). So I would say he is no more likely to get 12 furlongs than Dawn Approach.
We've done them all Ron. Nothing is going to win the Derby this year. They're all going to finish in a dead heat and be declared as equal last. No other positions will be awarded.
There is so many differing opinions on here that im not even sure we could decide that the Derby will be won by a colt.
Boris - surely they're going to hammer this handicap mark before moving up into pattern company you would have thought?
So the general consensus is Dawn Approach won't stay . I find myself buying in to this conclusion . So I have decided on Battle of Marengo who although unimpressive , just does enough . Hopefully he just does enough on June 1st.
His grandsire on the dam line is also Green Desert who proved fairly versatile at stud, His best progeny tended to be milers. Anna Karenina was a moderate horse but she's an half sister to Windsor Palace a Gr3 winner over 10 furlongs used mainly by Ballydoyle as a pacemaker nowadays so there is some stamina in that family. You look at Dawn Approach although by New Approach his dam line just shouts speed, His grandsire was Phone Trick whos record at stud for producing middle distance horses is absolutely dismal, All his best progeny were sprinters. Dawn Approach's dam Hymn of the Dawn was hopeless on the track and even her close relatives weren't much kop on the track so I guess Dawn Approach as inherited alot of his ability from his sire but enough to win a Derby is questionable. Pedigrees aren't the be all end all but there all we have when a horse hasn't proved himself at the middle distances I'd love to see Dawn Approach win the Derby, To have a horse capable of winning a Coventry at 2 and then a Guineas and Derby at 3 would be something, But the chances of that are slim I think...
Are either of the unraced Head runners likely to turn up? Both by Galileo; one out of a Darshaan mare and one out of a Daylami mare. If one of these runs I think I'll go for the chosen one and Telescope plus Libertarian. I see that Libertarian is down as a possible entry for the Champion Hurdle. Novel.
No idea if either will turn up but Qahir, on paper at least, looks a fascinating prospect as his dam was runner-up, for Mr O’Brien, in both the Irish Oaks and the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare. The dam of Nevis (Moonstone) actually went one better and won the Irish Oaks for Mr O’Brien and I think he has been a bit overlooked by punters. OK, so he beat little in the Lingers Park Derby Trial but the manner of his success was most authorative. Still all about Telescope for me though and I await news of his gallop at the above course, now just 105 minutes away, with keen interest.
After Telescope’s ‘disappointing’ (Sporting Life’s choice of word) gallop he has been pushed out in the market to 10/1. In contrast Dawn Aprroach is shortened markedly and only one bookie chappie on Oddschecker now going shorter than Evens (with several odds on).
Just been reading some of the German websites on Chopin's gallop at the Weekend, apparently all went swimmingly. Now owned by Qatar Racing and to be ridden by Jamie Spencer (who partnered him on the gallops), he took the downhill slope at Düsseldorf with aplomb. Chopin, who won the Group 3 Dr. Busch Memorial race at Krefeld on his only start as a 3YO, was bred and owned by the Graditz stud, winners of 12 German Derbys down the years, albeit the last one in 1937 when you-know-who was in power in Germany. Chopin was sired by German 2000 Guineas winner Santiago out of the French mare Caucasiene, herself by Galileo but not much of a performer on the track for John Hills (won a 12F maiden at Brighton off 66). Here's what they wrote after his last victory: "The victory of Chopin by eight lengths surprised even his coach Andreas Wöhler. "He is totally phlegmatic in training. Therefore, I was surprised at how clearly he won," said the coach. "Good horses have character. Chopin has character". "He will make his way, that's for sure," said jockey Andrasch Starke, truly pampered by many class horses such as the mare Danedream in recent years.
Where's the love for the Frenchie? Will bladder this I feel, went the same route is Pour Moi im I not mistaken.
Oddy, thanks for the local heads-up on Chopin. Presumably everyone realises that his most memorable performances were coming from behind on Sand ?
this looks to be a weak Derby and I think who rides which horse could be significant. Of the O'Brien horses presumably Joseph O'Brien will ride Battle of Marengo and therefore Ryan Moore will ride Ruler of the World. I also like the look of Magician as an each way bet but not sure who will ride him.
Am very disappointed that Telescope will miss out but hopefully he will return later in the season and prove his worth. I'm hiding my disenchantment, re his absence, stoically and would recommend that my regular readers do the same. Now am somewhat drawn to Nevis. No idea of Mr O’Brien’s plans re him but certainly if he turns up I don’t think he deserves to be a 50/1 shot. Is as well-bred as anything in the field and he could do no more than win as he did last time out.
