Ron has a couple of fancies. I'm backing the O'Brien Dante horse. 3/1. Big price. Should deal with this field. Very weak Dante.
My only slight worry bob is when O'Brien was doing his decs for the derby trails he would have expected Telescope to be running! Now my doubt is would he send his best to face up to Telescope or one of his lesser lights to find out where he stands! Still might be good enough without Telescope in the race and will probably have a small bet at 3/1
For me I will be on the unbeaten Windhoek and then later on in the evening I will be on Johnstons only runner at Newmarket, in the 20.05 Reggae Star (no price yet)
York2.45 secret number newmarket 6.25 royal flag(unraced three year old)bin suroors only two runners on Thursday nice little double expected.
2.45 York: Indian Chief 3/1 (NAP) Aiden O'Brien sent another unfancied one against a Stoute hotpot just three years back when Cape Blanco beat Workforce at 9/2. I don't think he is always the best judge of his stable stars and it is no surprise in the sense that all horses work differently at home and they are all so well bred so he does make bad calls. Telescope is out and it leaves a glaring opportunity for O'Brien here. I think Indian Chief is his best Derby hope and he was uber impressive LTO. I know he did not beat a lot but he travelled so wonderfully well and crucially he quickened up real fast, which you do need on this flat 10f at York- a bit of speed There's a touch of St Nicholas Abbey about this fellow. Windhoek looked a bit of nutcase last time, veering over the track and whilst he is a nice enough animal, he should not really be up to Dante class and the bunched finish in the Tatterstalls Millions with Manduro and Ghurair tells you that they are all Group3 horses at best. To be honest I expected Indian Chief to be 6/4 so I'm delighted with the price- very surprised. Those of you who do like him should take the price on the exchanges for the Derby now. Battle Of Marengo is a big boat and Ruler Of The World beat a Hernando colt at Chester. This one might be the best of the lot (given Kingsbarns is out).
33/1 with PaddyPower for a Dante-Derby double for Indian Chief. (Greatwood &Windhoek 50/1, Trading LEather and Secret Number 66/1)
Must get this up early as the price may go York 3.15 Marcret 16-1 This is way too big for a Group 3 winning horse of last May on soft ground running in a Listed race this may on softish ground. It must be backed each way as it is a competitive field but I expect him to go very close indeed.
3.15 York Fort Bastion 11/2 Its a little odd that Sir Robert Ogdon has moved this 4 year old from Richard Hannon's to Ed Dunlop's but the fact he hasn't been gelded and his entry in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes lead me to think he's still very well thought of. Its probably going to take a Group Class horse to win this under top weight off a mark of 106 but I think Dunlop's newly acquired Colt is just that. When trained by Hannon, Fort Bastion showed some very useful form as a Juvenile when finishing runner up to the excellent Maybe on his 2nd start and confirmed that promise with a very good 2nd in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York in a race that has worked out well. His final start as a 2 year old came in a Group 1 at Longchamp and although last of the 7 (only beaten a little over 3L), I think it says a lot about the regard he was held in. Fort Bastion certainly progressed as a 3 year old where he only had 2 starts but he ran out an impressive victor on both outings. He won a poor Maiden in facile fashion by 12L last May but he was a very impressive winner of a 3 runner Conditions race on his final start later that month. In a race run at a good clip, Richard Hughes made a race winning move as he allowed his mount to quicken up at the 2f pole and Fort Bastion did so in fine style as he lengthened away from his rivals in a short space of time. The runner up Starbound (whose jockey William Buick was probably caught napping) couldn't bridge the gap as Fort Bastion ran out a convincing 4L winner. That form took a substantial boost with Starbound winning a Group 3 at Longchamp comfortably later that year and I certainly think the best is yet to come. He'll have to defy a long absence to win this having been last seen a day short of a year but the booking of Ryan Moore certainly seems to suggest he'll be fully wound up and I think he's got a great chance of landing this very competitive Listed Handicap from a good draw in stall 1. 3.50 York Sound Of Guns 7/2 NAP I am a massive, massive fan of Ed Walker's 3 year old filly and if the rain stays away then I think her current price could look ridiculous after the race today (she'll be withdrawn if the ground doesn't suit). I have been following Sound Of Guns since her eye catching debut and it didn't take her long to get off the mark as she won a Maiden at the 2nd time of asking over 6f at Yarmouth in the style of a very good horse as everything that could have went against her did but her class saw her through to score in really impressive fashion. Despite being given a very lenient opening handicap mark of 82, connections didn't hesitate to step her up into Listed Company where she ran a blinder dropped back to 5f at Newbury last August when finding only the excellent Rosdhu Queen (unbeaten at sprinting trip and winner of the Group 1 Cheveley Park) too good as she went down battling by 3/4L. Despite looking to have every chance at the furlong pole, Sound Of Guns couldn't get by Willie Haggas's extremely game front running filly but she lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day. Sound Of Guns proved that effort was no fluke when running another superb race in defeat when finishing a 1.5L beaten 3rd in the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster last September on what was her final start. Again over 5f, Sound Of Guns this time took on the boys and I think she was short of room at a crucial stage before running on strongly late on grab 3rd behind a couple of male counterparts. Again, that is really strong form with the winner Sir Prancealot had shown really good form in France when getting beaten less than 2L on two occasions behind Clive Cox's unbeaten Reckless Abandon (including at Group 1 level) whilst the runner up Bungle Inthejungle won a Group 3 on his only subsequent start. Moreover, the reopposing Morawij was a further length back in 6th and is now 7lb worse off at the weights so I can't see him reversing the form. Trainer Ed Walker reported that Sound Of Guns had grown a lot over the winter and her reappearance upped to 7f in the Nell Gwyn when finishing much better than her finishing position in 7th suggests. Held up in mid division, Sound Of Guns was very keen throughout the race but she was still travelling very well inside the final 2f in behind the leaders. However, she got a big bump that nearly knocked her over but she was still able to improve her finishing position under a tender ride from Luke Morris. Where she would have finished that day I don't know but I'd like to think she could have challenged for a place in a race that has thrown up in the 1,000 Guineas winner and 4th in Sky Lantern and Winning Express. Today's contest sees her dropped back to 5f which shouldn't cause any problems and her trainer has done so given how keen she was over 7f. Looking at her rivals, the main threats look like improving handicappers looking to step up into Pattern Class and I think Sound Of Guns will have far too much class for them. There are some light showers forecast but Ed Walker has stated that she won't run if the ground is unsuitable so there are no fears from me that I'll get stuck with a bet with unsuitable ground. William Buick is an excellent booking and clearly gets on well with this filly having partnered her to her Maiden success and 3rd in the Flying Childers and I will be very, very disappointed if she doesn't win this. I won't be at all surprised if she routs this average enough looking field and I've had a substantial wager on her at a price I think grossly misrepresents her chance of winning this. 5.00 York Hidden Justice 9/2 Despite being hit with a 10lb rise for his very easy success on his flat debut for John Quinn, I think Hidden Justice could still be quite a bit ahead of the handicapper off a mark of 83 and I think he'll take quite a bit of beating in this big field handicap. Formerly with Amanda Perrett, Hidden Justice was a consistent 3 year old making the frame in a lot of his 10 starts (winning once) but the switch to the excellent John Quinn yard has seen him flourish in both codes. Hidden Justice ran out a very comfortable winner on his first two starts over hurdles before disappointing in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival but less than a month later he successfully transferred back to the flat with a very, very comfortable win. Stepped up into a long distance handicap for the first time when taking in a 2m2f handicap at Pontefract last month, Hidden Justice made very smooth progress from the mid division of the field to hit the front on the bridle inside the final furlong before lengthening clear when asked to score by nearly 3L in bloodless fashion against opposition who had absolutely no answer for him. That 0-75 handicap is nowhere near as tough as the 0-90 handicap he takes in today but the manner of his latest success makes me believe he has an awful lot left to give in races of this nature on the flat. Again under Michael O'Connell, I think Hidden Justice's 10lb rise looks very fair and from an ideal draw in stall 2 which should allow him to get a position on the rail and I think he could take quite a bit of stopping off a mark of 83. Keeping these last 3 short and sweet 4.15 Salisbury Freddy With A Y 16/1 Freddy With A Y showed some very progressive form in 3 starts as a 2 year old and whose 3 year old debut on reappearance I am willing to overlook when held up on unsuitably soft ground. I think his mark of 75 looks very workable and George Baker comes here for this one ride. 5.55 Newmarket Kalily 7/1 Kalily left behind two absolutely woeful efforts for Luca Cumani as a 3 year old on his stable debut for Rae Guest when an eye catching 4th on his seasonal reappearance last month. Based on that run alone, an opening mark of 68 looks quite workable but this 4 year old's breeding makes his mark look even more appealing. Kalily (2nd foal) is a half brother to Mundana who won 3 of her 4 starts and earned a rating of 92 when last seen in 2011. I also think its very interesting that new connections haven't sought to geld him and I think that looks quite a telling sign given his age. Liam Jones takes the ride and with Rae Guest clearly having his horses in super order with his last 2 runners winning and quite a bit of money around already for him I think he can make a successful handicap debut. 6.05 Ludlow Bob's Legend 20/1 Bob's Legend is a horse who I am convinced has the ability to be much better than his current rating of 98 and if putting it all together I think he's got a great chance of going close in this. He was disappointing LTO when I strongly fancied him but trainer Martin Bosley reported he was holding his breath so you can put a line through that run. Although clearly a tricky customer, connections are reporting he's flying at home and he's already proven his liking for this track and although current odds on shot Church Field (landed a big punt on his handicap debut) could be tough to beat under a 7lb penalty if Bob's Legend shows his true colours then I definitely believe he can land this.
Nearly forgot this one! 8.05 Newmarket Ice Pie 3/1 NB I think Ice Pie is much, much better than her mark of 73 and I would be very disappointed if she doesn't win this. She made a very impressive winning debut (one of two debutants in the field - other well beaten) at Lingfield back in December as she made up an awful lot of ground in the final furlong to win going away by 1L and she very much struck me as a horse that was nowhere near the finished article. Moreover, she was comfortably the best horse in the race and the form has worked out very, very well. The 3rd home Gertrude Verse has gone on to win a Maiden very easily and has also finished 2nd to the Oaks bound Banofee in a Listed race at Chester. Furthemore, the 5th and 6th both next time out and for the debutant Ice Pie to beat those rivals with experience says an awful lot about the talent of the filly. Ice Pie made her handicap debut off this mark 12 days ago in a 0-85 handicap (0-75 today) and although beaten a neck in 3rd there is no doubt she was the best horse in the race. Slowly away and held up in touch, she still showed her inexperience as she was unbalanced going around the bends. Shoved along quite a bit off the pace with about 3f to go, she ran around green and once again made about 5L up in the final furlong and she just failed with her late surge. In addition to what she has shown on the track, she's very nicely bred being a half sister to 4 winners including the peak 107 rated St Moritz which again solidifies my belief she'll turn out to be much better than her 73 rating. She'll definitely improve for the step up to 10f in time but the straight mile at Newmarket should be fine for her today. In my opinion the handicapper is nuts to leave her mark unchanged and in this easier race and with that experience sure to help a lot I'd be very surprised if Ice Pie doesn't win this well as Richard Kingscote comes from York for this one ride at Newmarket for in form boss Tom Dascombe.
Cant believe the price about Indian Chief, im on at 5/1 anyway but I would be very happy to take 3/1 on the day with no Telescope. This is the best Derby trial run so far by a long way but that isnt really saying much, the sales race trio dont look up to Group 1 class for my money, but the maiden winner certainly has the potential. Everything about him screams top class, he has the swagger all right, but he has to go and prove he has the engine today.
Morning all Off to York today hoping the weather holds out Cracking days racing, (and drinking) can't wait.....
Cheers Oddy Quite a few fancies Like the look of Cubanita 2.15 and will be keeping an eye on the inform (specially when riding for O'meara), Danny Tudhope Mister Manannan in the 1st Also Moidore in the last
Morning, to the forum faithful. Hope everyone well. I like 2 today and both are coincidentally trained by chaps with the Christian name Henry and a surname beginning with ‘C’! There will be some wonderfully bred fillies in the county later on this afternoon, at Salisbury, and also some gee-gees with decent parentage to boot. Boom, boom! Top of the lot may be Sir Henry’s Zeyran (3.05). She ran a couple of respectable races as a 3YO and this Galileo filly hasn’t been kept in training as a 4YO simply to occupy barn space at old Warren Place. Should win her maiden here before going onto much better things. At Newmarket this eve old boy Henry Candy’s Tight Fit (wonderfully named in that she is by Assertive and out of Bikini) looks very overpriced, by those bookie chappies, at 10/1. Off a perch of just 62 and receiving weight all round she should go very close. Tight Fit ran in 3 above average maidens last term prior to finishing a close 2nd on here debut this season. The step up to a mile should benefit her enormously. Meanwhile, distressing news has reached Chuckle Towers in that Royal Ascot have renamed the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot. This was a lovely name for a race for fillies and mares but will now be known as the Duke of Cambridge Stakes in ‘honour’ of that freeloader, the British Queen’s grandson. Is it any wonder this country is such a joke when getting a race named after you at our Premier fixture relies on birth rather than achievement! The ‘Mr Henderson Stakes’ or in view that it is a fillies race ‘The lovely Amy Ryan Stakes’ would have been much more fitting. Anyway, rant over, and as always good luck people.
Bob, for once I was being serious! Amy Ryan’s achievements make her far more worthy of having a race named after her than that chap. Are Sound of Guns supporters slightly worried that she’s also in at Newbury tomorrow?!? Not sure what they are up to with the entry system re this one.
