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Daily Racing Thread Thursday 11th April

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by stick, Apr 10, 2013.

  1. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    2.30 Wincanton

    Oscars Secret 14/1

    This looks an incredibly open contest and I'm plumping for two against the field in the shape of Oscars Secret and Madam Noso. Oscars Secret represents the Kim Bailey yard and I think he's going to really appreciate the return to a sound surface and the step up in trip. This unexposed 6 year old was progressive in 3 his 3 Maidens showing improved form on each occasion before running a blinder on his handicap debut off his current mark of 112 on his seasonal reappearance at Wincanton over 2m4f back in October. On the back of a 7 month break and extremely well supported in the market (20s into 10s on course), Oscars Secret ran an absolutely fantastic to finish 2nd but he ran into a very well handicapped horse that day in the shape of Ivors King. Tracking the leaders throughout under 7lb claimer Charles Greene, Oscars Secret was ridden to chase the front running winner 2 out but was always being held as he finished beaten 4.5L and 10L clear of the remainder (Decimus was challenging for 2nd before falling at the last and has won two races subsequently). Oscars Secret lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day as the winner Ivors King was a very well handicapped horse who went on to win his next start even more impressively and he is now rated 24lb higher than he was for that success. It was another improved performance by Oscars Secret and he was very unfortunate to bump into such a well handicapped horse.

    Raised 3lb for that effort, Oscars Secret next start came at Ascot over 20f (Ivors King was again successful) and although a 17L beaten 7th in the end that certainly doesn't tell the whole story. Sitting pretty close to the pace, Oscars Secret was hampered and shuffled right back through the field but he did stay on very eye catchingly under tender enough handling up the home straight and although he would have been playing for a place at best his finishing position can definitely be upgraded. Moreover, he shaped as if a step up in trip would definitely suit and he gets that today over this 22f contest. The form of that race has worked out very strongly as well and it was another very pleasing effort. Oscars Secret's final start came over 3m at Fakenham back in December on soft ground which he hated and I'm putting a line through that run. Understandably, Kim Bailey has waited for a sound surface for this 6 year old which he gets today and I'm encouraged to see he returns to a track where he clearly goes well at. Ed Cookson takes the ride for the first time today and he claims a very valuable 5lb for Oscars Secret which gives him a lovely low racing weight ad I definitely feel he's on a winnable mark. A horse who clearly goes well fresh, I'm confident of a big run from this 6 year old and hopefully he can come out on top of this very competitive handicap.

    Madam Noso 33/1

    The other I fancy is Richard King's Madam Noso who has been out of sorts this year but I'm hoping the return to a sound surface can revitalise this 9 year old mare who I think is on a good mark based on her Novice Hurdles form. An experienced and successful Point To Pointer, Madam Noso was late to racing under Rules as she only made her last January and after progressing in her first 3 starts she shed her Maiden tag at the 4th time of asking over 22f at Newton Abbott last March. Under Tom Cannon, Madam Noso had to be rousted along from about half way (which is her style) but she hit the front at 3 out and asserted after the 2nd last before going on to score going away by 6L. The runner up My Legal Lady won her next two completed starts in Novice Hurdles to give substance to what was a very good performance. Under a penalty, Madam Noso ran an absolute blinder on her next start over 3m at Exeter last April when finishing an excellent 2nd to Themilanhorse. In receipt of 13lb from the eventual winner (7lb was a Mare's allowance) and under todays jockey James Best, Madam Noso was held up in midfield and swinging into the home straight her young jockey made a bold move (nudged along) to move past Themilanhorse into 2nd. Jumping the 3rd last, Madam Noso had a fractional lead over that rival before she wandered around a bit and Themilanhorse had a fractional advantage jumping the 2nd last where he stumbled slightly (would have only cost him a minimal amount of momentum). Continuing a rally, Madam Noso was just in front jumping the last but under a right hand drive she hung violently to her left which I certainly feel cost her victory as she eventually went down by a little over 2L as the front two pulled miles clear of the rest.

    The Paul Nicholls trained winner arrived there in belting form having won two handicaps in the month prior, latterly off 128, he proved he was still in form when finishing 2nd in a very good handicap at Aintree a month later off 136. Given that Madam Noso had him all out to win (she could easily have won if not hanging), if taking that form literally then her mark of 105 looks extremely lenient. The race was run at a good clip which leads me to believe it was a truly run race and Themilanhorse's prior and after the run show he was in good form. The RP reports he got loose before the race started (no clue how far he went) and that obviously played its part but even taking all that into account I still think Madam Noso would have made a very good race of things. Only time will tell and I think we'll get a very good impression of how literal that form can be taken today. That was her Madam Noso's last start last season and she has had 3 starts this season in handicaps (twice off 115, latterly of 110) where she has been desperately disappointing (she did shape encouragingly for a long way 2 starts ago). However, on each occasion she ran in absolutely bottomless ground and I am certainly willing to give her another chance now she has returned to a sound surface. Even discarding her run behind Themilanhorse, her comprehensive win in the Novice Hurdle still makes her feasibly handicapped off a mark of 105 and if her 2nd can be seen as anywhere near 'true' form then she could be really well in and I am sure the good ground today will tell us one way or another. Including James Best's claim, she has a lovely racing weight 10-3 and the jockey comes here for just this one ride today. Another encouraging sign is that she came to hand around this time of year last season and I'm certainly optimistic that she has a future under Rules. Although she's got to leave this season's form well behind, I'm hoping a return to good ground will see her in a better light and I'm hopeful of a good run. Although clearly a **** load of risks come attached, they are taken into account and more at this big price and hopefully she can give a good account of herself and it would be great if she could win this really competitive looking race.
     
    #21
  2. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    4.00 Wincanton

    Sporting Boy 10/1

    Although he's been a little disappointing in 2 starts this season, I think he had excuses on both occasions and I think the return to a sound surface will make all the difference and I expect a massive run from Michael Blake's charge. Last season I was very, very impressed by this upwardly mobile 5 year old and although 10lb above the last of his wins I strongly feel he's on mark he can win off. A winner of 4 of last 5 handicaps last season (the one he didn't win he was out for a spin). After the aforementioned spin, he came out 7 days later in October last year when he won in facile fashion off a mark 110 at Ludlow under when eased down to score by 5L udner Tom Scudamore and followed that victory up in even more impressive fashion 8 days later at Wetherby when winning by a comfortable 8 lengths off an effective mark of 115 under the same jockey. The form of that was franked with the 3rd Lightning Rod running really well on his two subsequent starts - most recently scoring over that C+D off a 2lb higher mark whilst the 4th Laterly was a wide margin winner off 3lb lower mark at Leicester a month later and given that Sporting Boy disposed of those rivals with such ease emphasises how well handicapped a horse he seemed to be. Upped a stone to a mark of 129 for that success, Sporting Boy took a 4 month break before making his reappearance at Newbury at the start of March for a competitive handicap at Newbury where he finished 6th (beaten 17L). However, Channel 4 interviewed trainer Michael Blake just before the race and I strongly got the impression that this was just a prep run for the Imperial Cup at Sandown which would take place a week later and that he would come on for the run (which he needed after a similar break at the start of the season). He also stated that he would run Sporting Boy in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham if successful at Sandown and although neither event took place I feel it speaks volumes of the regard he is held in at home. Sporting Boy duly took part in the Listed Imperial Cup at Sandown a week later but torrential rain had left the course incredibly heavy and Noel Fehily took care of him on ground he clearly hated. As a result of those 2 runs, he has fallen 4lb to a mark of 125 and although his last win was off 115 there is absolutely no doubt in mind that he is capable of winning off this mark and higher and I am willing to forgive his two most recent runs. He gets ideal conditions today over a C+D he has won over before and if he underperforms in this race there will be no hiding places. However, I think the return to quick ground that he loves will bring out the best in him and I am fully confident that he can win this. Nick Scholfield, who has won on him before, takes the ride and Michael Blakes has his horses in very good order at the moment. Although it will take a career best to win this, I am 100% unwavering in my belief that Sporting Boy is a serious, serious horse and I am very confident he'll land this before going on to bigger and better things.
     
    #22
  3. King Shergar

    King Shergar Well-Known Member

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    Shergars Shoo in today is FRUITY O'ROONEY 4.20 Fontwell, haven't got time for a write up unfortunately. Good luck to everyone else who's having a punt today :biggrin:
     
    #23
  4. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Huge portion of Carrot cake and large pot of coffee for lunch today, hard to beat that! Everyone seem's to have selections running against each other today so best of luck with that :emoticon-0148-yes:. No bet's today for me unless i root something out from Limerick later.
     
    #24
  5. Joe Lively

    Joe Lively Member

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    Hate this time of the year, bloody inbetweeny season, NH has virtually done, and flat hasn't properly started!

    Oh well The Masters has started, ****ing love this tournament, have gone for Keegan Bradley at 28s, Dustin Johnson at 33s and big Phil at 11s. Good luck all who are having a punt!
     
    #25
  6. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Joe, have a gander at the betting board. Really just the racing forum posting their golf picks, good info on also . Goodluck with your bets .
     
    #26
  7. PNkt

    PNkt Well-Known Member

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    I believe MOORLAND SUNSET is fancied to go well in the next.
     
    #27
  8. Bostonbob

    Bostonbob Well-Known Member

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    It looks very tiring at Fontwell lads and lasses.

    Be mindful if you have a bet.
     
    #28
  9. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Star Links 6:10 Limerick 8/1 BOG.

    Last won on the turf over 2 years ago off a mark of 78 at Naas over today's trip and has hit the post several times since failing to add to his tally on the turf. He has won several races on the all weather off marks in the low to high 70's and it is obviously with risk taking him to win on the turf given his record but he races off 68 today and look's to have been given a good chance after 2 recent spins around Dundalk. Ronan Whelan take's the ride and takes 3 more off his back and is one of the top claimers in Ireland and a positive for me. At around the 8/1 mark he is worth an each way bet as he defiantly has a race of this compass within him off today's mark.
     
    #29
  10. Wayward Lad

    Wayward Lad Active Member

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    Afternoon guys one big priced EW fancy for me today runs in the 3.40 Ludlow MARLEY ROCA 25/1
     
    #30

  11. Bostonbob

    Bostonbob Well-Known Member

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    That race just confirms the opinion it's a complete slog at Fontwell.
     
    #31
  12. King Shergar

    King Shergar Well-Known Member

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    Ye your gonna need a horse that likes the soft :biggrin:
     
    #32
  13. SMP

    SMP Member

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    Divers for me
     
    #33
  14. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    Something must not have been right with Sporting Boy. After 100 yards he was beaten. Have absolutely no idea what happened but no way that was a reflection of his ability. Will keep an eye on the trainer's site in the next couple of days to see if any problem/explanation is mentioned and will post up if anything is posted.

    Madam Noso was disappointing as was Oscars Secret although I don't think the latter enjoyed being buried in midfield. Definitely willing to give Oscars Secret another chance.
     
    #34
  15. tidalbay

    tidalbay Member

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    lot of big sweats there for old fruity
     
    #35
  16. Bostonbob

    Bostonbob Well-Known Member

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    Get in there Fruity. Well done that man.

    TAKE IT TO THE BANK

    Five winning favourites today at Fontwell from 5 races.
     
    #36
  17. Black Caviar

    Black Caviar 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Limerick 4.35 Bronte 6/1
     
    #37
  18. King Shergar

    King Shergar Well-Known Member

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    The Shoo in scrapes home, get in! :biggrin:
     
    #38
  19. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    I wish they had pulled PSI.....not much chance in this bog!!!
     
    #39
  20. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    At least this he'll be even better handicapped if he comes nowhere! Have a look at tomrrows DT Stick. I expect you'll be backing that one as well?
     
    #40

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