Wow good luck Drev, I wonder if the ground is against him and think this could be just too hot for him. Good to see you fancy RDS and the mighty Tizzard horse. I'm thinking about going balls deep. Nice one stick, it's the hottest looking race of the week so far imho. Haven't even got close to thinking I've got the race solved.
Haven't really been having a good go yet Beefy..Only had three today..Tofino e/w,BB AP,(both unlucky) and one in the Coral who ran a never nearer 7th under Paddy Brennan! Had the fly y'day and an e/w who finshed 7th in the mares. Cranking it up tmz and Friday when most of my fancies go. How you getting on?
Cheers GGW!! I'm not overly concerned about the ground for Vino Griego as it still holds a little bit of juice which he will enjoy. The rise in weights since his win over CD in January is fair enough taking into account the winners that were behind him that day. Obviously, from a handicapping perspective Ballynagpour and Cantlow are unknown quantities and could be thrown in. Having said that, so could he now he is held up and seems to be enjoying his races. I will continue to keep following this fella as I'm sure he could turn out a lot better than his current mark. With regards to RDS I'm not convinced OW is a confirmed stayer and feel this is his year so he can hold the trophy until Big Buck's get back!! I had been sweet on First Lieutenant for months and have him in lots of small accumulators but on the eve of the race I feel Cue Card is the one to side with.
I said in my preview I'd be covering something e/w in the world hurdle to ease a bit of pressure on my RDS antepost. Going with Bog Warrior who to me looks a live threat.
I had RDS in the Cleeve but again the more i look at this race i think i'm siding with Oscar Whiskey for it, something is just niggling at me he will win it even though i am a fan of RDS.
Quite like Stonemaster in the Pertemps. 6th in last years Coral Cup and 3rd in the Leopardstown qualifier in December which has thrown up a few winners of this in recent years. Like Dynaste but seems too short at 6-4 so going with Texas Jack after the results today.
1.30: DYNASTE 6/4 Did not think I would side with him at the festival but he was brilliant over this course and distance earlier in the season and it is the right decision to avoid the RSA as he isn't the sort of dour stayer that the race needs. Another year on his back will help him settle and potentially try 3 miles next year. He does stay the trip and outbattled Fingal Bay here- he looks a stronger type of horse than Grands Crus because he is less buzzed up and has a better stride. AupCharlie has issues with his finishing effort but is a big talent, whilst Captain Conan seems like he will be one to follow next year, as much as I like him. (Might be a Hennessey horse). Dynaste for today- Captain Conan for the future. 2:40 FIRST LIEUTENANT 5/2 (NAP) Improves for spring ground, has outstanding Cheltenham festival form, is a guaranteed stayer, and has classy formlines ranging from Sir Des Champs/Flemenstar/Tidal Bay, to Rock On Ruby/Oscars Well/So Young. He could end up being a very hard horse to pass if he takes up the running coming to the last, and even if not, I can see him debying Cue Card very late on. 3.20 Wonderful Charm 10/1 & Peddlers Cross 10/1 As you will now know from the writeup, Monksland would have been my bet of the festival in this and I have since had to take some time to reconsider the way the race will be run. I would look to take on Zaidpour, So Young, Bog Warrior and Solwhit out of this on ground concerns- all would prefer it soft. Oscara Dara, Cross Kennon,and Celestia Halo don't look good enough to feature, and I remain convinced that Oscar Whisky bottoms out once he goes past the 2 and a half mile stage so will travel well before finding nothing, and Lovcen looks nowhere near last years form. Rev De Sivola is a solid alternative, but with the ground absolutely in his favour, Peddlers Cross can make the frame if building on his hurdles comeback at Muss, where although not winning by much, travelling and jumping superbly and quickening when asked. He always takes a bit of time to hit top gear and has never had a turn of foot, so I think the emphasis on stamina might give him chance to hit top gear and run on well late on up the hill, as he did in the Neptune when outstaying Reve De Sivola. Quicker ground in the spring seems to help horses sired by Oscar, which providing they shape like stayers is a big positive. Get Me Out Of Here goes well here and if he stays the trip would be a player. However Ruby Walsh choosing WONDERFUL CHARM speaks volumes to me and he must have been going well at home for Nicholls to have decided to head in this direction. Nicholls horses usually improve for a breathing operation and I am hopeful he can make the step up in a race where there are so many doubts around the main protagonists. 4:00 THEATRE GUIDE 20/1 e.w This is a quirky horse (much like this race!) and it is nto one to go mad on. However, Theatre Guide should relish this sort of inbetween trip as he has speed and stamina (not quite enough for 3m), and the drying ground has come in his favour. The Tizzard team are in good form and he can be a player IF he jumps around safely. 4:40 SAINT ARE 25/1 e/w This is a horse who has been crying out for better ground this season and finally he gets it here. I thought he travelled with real promise last time out and looked a horse who might be worth noting for next time, finishing around 8L behind Vino Griego. He is 8lb better off today with his 7lb claimer (useful) and a 1lb help from the handicapper, so combined with the ground in his favour perhaps we have a horse who could run a nice race. It is a super competitive handicap as always, though.
Cheltenham 4.00 Walkon 14/1 Have to be careful playing in this race with the alleged Pipe good thing but I think Walkon represents a fair chance on his 2 chase runs this season. The first, CD and on similar ground was a huge run in the valuable Paddy Power Chase where he and Al Ferof came clear of the field. Al Ferof was giving away lumps but was potentially very well treated off of 158. Walkon returned to Cheltenham in December raised 5lbs. On dire, bottomless ground he opposed the lightly weighted Unioniste who was officially 5lbs lower but had an extra 5 from Harry Derham and then a whole load more for being a 4 year old. Unioniste didn't do the form any favours today but I don't think we saw the real horse, the horse that Ruby chose over Boston Bob and that Nicholls clearly thinks a lot of. Perhaps it was ground, perhaps the yard is misfiring ect. Third that day was none other than Golden Chieften who finished 6L behind Walkon. He, of course, romped home by 10L on Tuesday. The ground bodes no problem for Walkon and the trainer had a winner and 2 places at the festival today. For me he looks to have a chance at a course he has a good record at.
Went for an e/w lucky 31 and accy. Took some tips from here and one of my own Captain Conan @ 11/2 Jetson @ 10/1 Vino Griego @ 11/1 Relax @ 25/1 NAP Big Shu @ 10/1
Draft Placepot Cheltenham Day 3 Will narrow these down at some stage tomorrow morning 13 30 At CHELTENHAM JEWSON NOVICES' CHASE 2m 4f 3 14 05 At CHELTENHAM PERTEMPS HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 1, 12, 18, 22, 23 14 40 At CHELTENHAM RYANAIR CHASE 2m 5f 3 CHELTENHAM 15:20 WORLD HURDLE 3m 9, 13 16 00 At CHELTENHAM BYRNE GROUP PLATE H'CAP CHASE 2m 5f 9, 12, 22, 24 16 40 At CHELTENHAM 16:40 KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE 3m 1 1/2f 2, 6, 9, 11, 14
Lucky 63's and singles for tomorrow 1. CHELTENHAM 13:30 JEWSON NOVICES' CHASE 2m 4f Captain Conan @ 13/2 (GP) CHELTENHAM 14:05 PERTEMPS HANDICAP HURDLE 3m Bakbenscher @ 33/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 15:20 WORLD HURDLE 3m Zaidpour @ 28/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 16:00 BYRNE GROUP PLATE H'CAP CHASE 2m 5f Divers @ 16/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 16:40 KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE 3m 1 1/2f Prince Of Pirates @ 11/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 17:15 X COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE 3m 7f Big Shu @ 11/1 (GP) 2. CHELTENHAM 13:30 JEWSON NOVICES' CHASE 2m 4f Captain Conan @ 13/2 (GP) CHELTENHAM 14:05 PERTEMPS HANDICAP HURDLE 3m Top Of The Range @ 14/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 14:40 RYANAIR CHASE 2m 5f Albertas Run @ 9/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 16:00 BYRNE GROUP PLATE H'CAP CHASE 2m 5f Mad Moose @ 33/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 16:40 KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE 3m 1 1/2f Becauseicouldntsee @ 16/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 17:15 X COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE 3m 7f Uncle Junior @ 10/1 (GP)
Is the ground going to be soft enough for bog warrior? If so then its NAP material for me Also is it just me or is this the 1st time since Aintree Hunt Ball gets his preferred ground? Is top weight(won last year with 12.00) so wont mind that 1 bit
guys from my picks above i will probably refine a chancey Lucky 15 on the following Big Shu in the cross country has to have a great chance on its run behind the favourite Arabella Boy at Punchestown and now on better terms. Horse is very unexposed in these sort of races, and should go close if handling the conditions. Step up in trip to almost 3 miles should suit Zaidpour in the world hurdle is of the right age and will handle the ground and the price I got at 28/1 seems ridiculously big given that there are a number of doubtful stayers in the field. I think he at least should be the best of the Irish. Smad Place could also surprise as he ran very well to get third last year as a 5 yo and hated the heavy ground conditions he has experienced in his runs this term. So I will decide between these 2. Mad Moose seems to be a huge price at 33/1 and has good course form and is at least as good as a number in this field on some formlines. Albertas Value at 9/1 for a horse that treats this race as it's FA Cup Final and horse loves Cheltenham and goes well fresh even though I agree with the above posters that Cue Card will be extremely hard to beat
guys from my picks above i will probably refine a chancey Lucky 15 on the following Big Shu in the cross country has to have a great chance on its run behind the favourite Arabella Boy at Punchestown and now on better terms. Horse is very unexposed in these sort of races, and should go close if handling the conditions. Step up in trip to almost 3 miles should suit Zaidpour in the world hurdle is of the right age and will handle the ground and the price I got at 28/1 seems ridiculously big given that there are a number of doubtful stayers in the field. I think he at least should be the best of the Irish. Smad Place could also surprise as he ran very well to get third last year as a 5 yo and hated the heavy ground conditions he has experienced in his runs this term. So I will decide between these 2. Mad Moose seems to be a huge price at 33/1 and has good course form and is at least as good as a number in this field on some formlines. Albertas Value at 9/1 for a horse that treats this race as it's FA Cup Final and horse loves Cheltenham and goes well fresh even though I agree with the above posters that Cue Card will be extremely hard to beat
Day 3 - Redemption Yesterday didn't go to plan as both Mr Watson and Drumlee looked to have something wrong with them but this looks a lot more favourable with regards to punting and I'm confident of a very good day. 1.30 Cheltenham Not a race I'm backing anything as Dynaste should win this on all known form but I have been quite impressed with Tom George's unexposed Module 12/1 and I think he represents a good each way alternative to the favourite. 2.05 Cheltenham Sam Winner has been touted the handicap good thing of the festival but I don't really think he's as well handicapped as people are saying and I'm certainly taking him on. Despite being a huge price, I'm very confident of an absolutely massive showing from Berties Dream 40/1 and nothing would bring me greater pleasure if he manages to win at Cheltenham again. The horse who has probably cemented my love affair with the Festival, Berties Dream comes to life at Cheltenham and caused a major shock to most when winning the Albert Bartlett back in 2010 at 33/1 for Paul Gilligan as he outstayed everything over the same C+D he runs over tomorrow to score by 6L. After a disappointing start to his chasing career, Berties Dream returned to Cheltenham when running an absolute blinder in the 2011 World Hurdle to be beaten a little over 8L but he most definitely would have been closer had he not slipped going around the home turn. After moving stable to Henry De Bromhead, last season he mixed hurdling and chasing scoring once in each code and this year he's had a light enough campaign. He ran ok on his 2nd start this season over fences before reverting back to hurdles on his last two starts where he has most definitely been taken care of and should have put him spot on for this. There is no doubt in my mind that this has been the target for a few months and I think 138 is certainly a mark that he can run a huge race off with cheekpieces reapplied having been left off the last twice. Now a 10 year old, his recent form figures don't look appealing at all but you've got to trust me as I know him inside and out and he's more than capable on his day off this mark. Returned to the course he absolutely loves, I envisage Berties Dream running an absolutely massive race and nothing will make me happier if he can win at the Festival for the 2nd time. 2.40 Cheltenham I have lumped on First Lieutenant each way at 9/2 last week as I will be utterly, utterly shocked if he is out of the first 3 and despite being only 5/2 now I think he is most definitely worth a bet as I I strongly believe he'll win this well. A winner of the Neptune and runner up to current Gold Cup Favourite Bob's Worth over fences last year, First Lieutenant has enough form in the book to warrant his place in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but turns up in the race sponsored by his owner Michael O'Leary instead. He has tremendous form this year when finishing an excellent 3rd behind Bob's Worth in the Hennessey before being defied by a head by Tidal Bay in the Irish Hennessey where he finished in front of Gold Cup bound Sir Des Champs who wouldn't have peaked. He's vying for favouritism with Cue Card who I don't think jumps well enough to win this and I'm not even sure he'll last home 2m5f up the hill. Mouse Morris seems to have his horses in belting form and I will be very disappointed if he isn't good enough to win this. I wouldn't put anyone off having a decent bet on him. 3.20 Cheltenham This looks an awful, awful renewal and is one of the most winnable races at Cheltenham in my opinion. None of these horses would make Big Bucks sweat. I am very sweet on Paul Nicholls' Wonderful Charm 11/1 who I've managed to secure at fancy prices and I think he could be a little bit special. We've only seen him once on British shores but I thought he oozed class when winning the Grade 2 Persian War Novices Hurdle at Chepstow back in October where he had to be niggled on various occasions over the 2m4f trip but he showed real class to draw away and win comfortably in the end. Ruby Walsh got off saying he had an issue with his breathing and his subsequent wind op will clearly bring him on a lot. Granted, the jump from winning a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle to the World Hurlde at the Cheltenham Festival is huge and a lot has to be taken on faith but I just have a strong gut feeling that this is a very, very good horse. He'll have to buck 5 year old trend but if that stat is ever going to fall then it will be this year. Quite a bit of confidence from me behind him. 4.00 Cheltenham This looks the toughest handicap at the entire meeting. It would be absolutely fantastic if last seasons fairytale horse Hunt Ball could win at Cheltenham for the 2nd year running but he's going to have to put in a mammoth performance off top weight. David Pipe's Ballynagour is clearly going to be very well supported for last year's winning stable after making an absolute mockery of his handicap mark on his British debut when winning in a hack canter in a race that threw up Tuesday's impressive winner Theatrical Star. He'll have to race here off a huge 20lb higher mark and in different ground conditions but if putting in a similar performance he could prove miles too good for this field. Handicap debutant Cantlow looks on a very good mark for the Paul Webber yard and it would be no surprise to see him run very well. If looking for something at a big price, Tartak 20/1 at the foot of the weights could definitely run well given that he was 5th in this race off a 19lb higher mark last year and he goes very well at the course. He's been poor this season but he'll appreciate the better ground today and if bouncing back he can certainly run well at a nice price. 4.40 Cheltenham Becauseicouldntsee 25/1 looks primed for another big run having finished 2nd in this last year off the same mark and given that he has finished runner up on both his visits to the Cheltenham Festival he definitely looks overpriced. The one I fancy quite a bit, however, is Gordon Elliot's Romanesco 9/1 who I think looks set to run a very big race. A massive improver over both fences and hurdles, Romanesco is now rated 26lb higher than the mark he won off at Ffos Las 10 months ago but I don't think his progression has finished yet and I still think he is on a very workable handicap mark of 131. He looked set to win over an extended 3m at on Cheltenham's old course back in October off a mark of 119 before falling at the finial flight when travelling very well but he made amends 6 days later at Fakenham when running out a very easy winner. The form of that race looks very strong with the 2nd and 3rd winning their next starts off 5lb and 2lb higher marks respectively and it was a really striking performance. You can put a line through his next run in the Troytown when he was unable to quicken up on the nearly unraceable ground but he bounced back to form with a fantastic 2nd at the Leopardstown Festival in the Paddy Power Chase at the end of December. Under tomorrow's jockey Nina Carberry, Romanesco was anchored at the back of the 28 runner field but he made stylish progress before his improvement was slightly halted with an iffy jump at 2 out. He stayed on resolutely up the run in to finish 5.5L behind the winner who had first run on him and he lost nothing in defeat. Colbert Station was the winner that day and given how heavily he was backed all day there is absolutely no doubt that he was a very well handicapped horse and I'm sure that is a very strong piece of form. He was purchased by Gigginstown Stud after that effort and you can draw a line through his last run 37 days ago over hurdles when he was found to have a respiratory tract infection. At 8 years old, he's clearly still open to quite a bit of improvement and I was actually quite surprised at his 2nd at Leopardstown as I think he is a much better horse on a sound surface which he'll get here tomorrow. Given that he is only 6lb above that effort, I still think 131 is a handicap mark that he can definitely win off and he has a lovely racing weight of 11-1. Nina Carberry, who gave Tofino Bay an outstanding ride yesterday, is definitely one of the best jockeys in this Amateur contest and Romanesco looks certain to appreciate a fast run contest. Given that he has proven effective at Cheltenham and in big fields, I expect a huge run from Romanesco for the in form Gordon Elliott who had a winner here yesterday and I'll be a bit disappointed if he can't at least make the places. 5.15 Cheltenham The rearranged Cross Country is not a race I have much aptitude in but there is an extremely interesting runner in the shape of French raider Sacree Tiepy 12/1. Trained by Emmanuel Clayeux, this is the the trainer's 2nd runner this week and he clearly has brought 2 fancied horses given that his other horse Sirene D'Ainay ran a fantastic race to finish 2nd behind the wonder mare Quevega on Tuesday. Although I've no clue how to equate this ones form, he gets in here a the foot of the weights and sports a first time tongue tie. One extremely eye catching element to Sacree Tiepy is the booking of British jockey James Reveley who has withered down to 10 stone to take the ride - 3lb below his lowest weight in the past year which certainly looks a tip in itself. Although this is a bit of a stab in the dark, he is a very interesting contender and could well be worth a bet if you've made a bit of cash throughout the day.
