11/12 VS 12/13: How far behind are we and what can we expect in the run-in?

Basically, I'm desperately trying to put off a Metaethics essay and I thought I would give this a go. I'm comparing our results this season to last, and predicting how many points we can get out of our last 11 games based on the corresponding fixtures last season. I've replaced the 18th 19th and 20th with 1st, 2nd and 3rd teams from Championship. Mostly a bit of fun/procastination. Hope you appreciate the effort!

Man Utd

11/12: Home: 3 / Away: 1
12/13: Home: 0/ Away: 0
Points Difference: -4


Man City

11/12: Home: 0 / Away: 0
12/13: Home: 0
Points Difference: 0
Points Expected: 0


Tottenham

11/12: Home: 1 / Away: 0
12/13: Home: 3/ Away: 0
Points Difference: +2


Chelsea

11/12: Home: 0 / Away: 3
12/13: Home: 3/ Away: 0
Points Difference: 0


Arsenal

11/12: Home: 1 / Away: 0
12/13: Away - 0
Points Difference: 0
Points Expected: 1


Everton

11/12: Home: 3 / Away: 0
12/13: Home: 0 / Away: 1
Points Difference: -2


West Brom

11/12: Home: 0 / Away: 3
12/13: Home: 3
Points Difference: +3
Points Expected: 3


Liverpool

11/12: Home: 3 / Away: 0
12/13: Away: 1
Points Difference +1
Points Expected: 3


Swansea

11/12: Home: 1 / Away: 3
12/13: Home: 0
Points Difference: -1
Points Expected : 3


Stoke

11/12: Home: 3 / Away: 3
12/13: Away: 0
Points Difference: -3
Points Expected: 3


Fulham

11/12: Home: 3 / Away: 0
12/13: Away: 0
Points Difference: 0
Points Expected: 3


Norwich

11/12: Home: 3 / Away: 0
12/13: Home: 3/ Away: 1
Points Difference: +1


West Ham/Wolves

11/12: Home: 1/ Away: 3
12/13: Home: 0
Points Difference: -1
Points Expected: 3


Sunderland

11/12: Home: 1 / Away: 3
12/13: Away: 1
Points Difference: -2
Points Expected: 1


Southampton/Blackburn

11/12: Home: 3 / Away: 3
12/13: Home: 3/ Away: 0
Points Difference: -3


Wigan

11/12: Home: 3 / Away: 0
12/13: Home: 3
Points Difference: 0
Points Expected: 0


Aston Villa

11/12: Home: 3 / Away: 1
12/13: Home: 1 / Away: 3
Points Difference: 0


Reading/Bolton

11/12: Home: 3 / Away: 3
12/13: Home: 0/ Away: 1
Points Difference: -5


QPR

11/12: Home: 3 / Away: 1
12/13: Home: 3
Points Difference: 0
Points Expected: 1

So if I've added that up right:

We are 14 points off where we were last season, on current games played.
If we hadn't lost those 14 points we would currently be in 6th.
If we match last seasons results we can expect 21 points from our run in.
That would see us onto 51 points which last season would have seen us finish 10th.

 

I like numbers so I get this. Bravo sir.

 

I pretty much agree with your numbers - they seem the most realistic.

Though, I can see us getting a point at Man City and three at home to the mackems. Perhaps I'm being overly optimistic and have been swept up by the current feelgood factor?!

 

If we didn't have our injuries, I'd add at least 6pts on to our current total, which would put us 3pts behind Liverpool.