Is it something coming off a long absence? Might it be Gormanstown Cuckoo returned to good ground for the first time in a few runs and now on a very nice mark.
Whatever happens don't let me tip up a 33/1 out of the handicap 7 year old novice maiden over fences for the Eider Chase. That would be too much.
2.55 Newcastle Netminder 33/1 BetVictor Netminder tackles the Eider Chase tomorrow at Newcastle and I think he goes there with a cracking chance. I have been screaming for this guy to be stepped up first to 3 miles and now to 4 miles as he strikes me as a horse who stays and stays and stays. His form looks ordinary at first glance but there are some real flashes of quality in there I assure you. As a novice hurdler last year he opened up ‘outpaced’ (RP) on debut over 2 miles before then running second to the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze at Kelso on soft 2miles 6f, level weights. The RP describe his run as With leaders on outside, led 6th, ridden and 5 lengths clear when sprawled last, soon ridden and hung left, headed last 150yds, kept on same pace. I’m not for a minute trying to suggest he’s the better horse because he’s not but it was still a huge run. Following this he won a novice hurdle by 23L on soft. It was his next run when the wheels somewhat came off. Tackling good ground for the first time in his career, which I’m not totally sure suited, he was outpaced when it mattered by some smart rivals, finishing 10L behind winner Dark Glacier, 8L behind Rival D’Estruval and 2L in front of Fill The Power. Rival D’Estruval has since proven he is a very talented horse and whilst winner Dark Glacier hasn’t kicked on from then he is yet to encounter good ground since and I would suggest that when he does he will be a lumpy sort of bet. In fact Dark Glacier put in a respectable run on soft in good company (check out the strength of the field that day) before 4 poor runs all on heavy which has seen his mark fall massively. He’s one for the notebook. Netminder ended the season in the Sefton, outclassed by some of the best novices of his generation. Put a line through that piece of form, he’s not a Grade 1 horse. This season he’s gone novice chasing. Forgive him his first run, he probably needed it over 2miles 4f. His second run was over the same trip. The RP describe his run that day as Not fluent, held up, hit 7th, outpaced after 9th, rallied 4 out, kept on, never able to challenge. Clearly a horse who wants further. His next run was disappointing, a novice handicap on Fighting Fifth day off of 117. Upped to 3 miles for the first time over fences this is what I wrote prior to the race that day. Worth noting two things. He went off 4/1 so was subject to support on handicap debut (or lots of withdrawals I cannot remember) and even though he’d yet to face 3 miles I was already calling for him to be facing 4miles+. I’m not sure he’ll ever achieve a mark to get into the national but the sentiment stands. In the event, the race was odd. There wasn’t altogether that much pace for the first half so I do think Netminder was somewhat outpaced when the pace was upped a mile out by winner Red Rocco. The distances don’t tell the full picture as the first 4 home were ridden out and the other thing to note was that Netminder was badly hampered ¾ of the way through the race when he was still in touch and travelling ok. I don’t know how much that affected him, if at all, but perhaps it’s a reason to somewhat ignore this run and instead focus on his next, which is the next flash of brilliance. Upped in trip to 3miles 1f on heavy ground at Ayr, Netminder ran a big 2nd of 6 in a novice chase. RP describe this run as Led, hit 4 out (usual 5 out), ridden and 3 lengths clear next, headed 2 out, kept on, not reach winner. He stayed every yard and was doing his best racing near the end. He was the last horse off the bridle, travelling much better than his classy rival, but really seemed one paced when asked the question. I think he probably wanted one more circuit give or take. He was receiving 7lbs from the 4L winner, the talented Real Milan, who sadly didn’t frank the form at in the Grade 2 Novice chase at Ascot due to not recovering when almost falling last weekend (Betfair Chase day). The good news is the 3rd that day, Nuts N Bolts, has franked the form winning a handicap off of 128. Most recently he ran at Doncaster on good ground, which I’m not convinced plays into his hands. He wasn’t good enough to stay with the leading pair, both talented and well ahead of him on ratings. His race with the 3rd probably wasn’t fair or reflective of his ability because Netminder was ridden as if he had a chance of winning the race whilst Humphrey Bee was pointed along in behind seemingly aware that the only chance of victory was if the front two came down. On the race video 3 out Humphrey Bee is described as 10L ahead of Netminder who had “given up the ghost in 5th of 5”. By the final fence Netminder had “rallied” to regain 3rd. He didn’t hold on to third for whatever reason but I see some promise there anyway. As I’ve said already Humphrey Bee didn’t try to stay with the leaders when they kicked clear whereas Netminder was ridden along for a mile out so I don’t think we can read too much into their proximity to one another. Tomorrow Netminder steps up to a whopping 4 miles and is pitched back in handicap company off of a mark of 120. I think he’ll relish it. The Eider is, to my mind, one of the biggest tests of stamina in the calendar. I think it’s a good thing Netminder is off just the 10stone in this ground (from 1lb out of the handicap). Peter Buchanan will be doing his lowest riding weight in 12 months (10 stone) for this one so all that weight will be human weight (some people like that sort of thing!). I will finish this with a word of warning. He goes against a lot of the trends for this race, but I think when the ground is this soft you take those sort of things with a pinch of salt because I think only a handful will make it home. Not only that the inclusion of Master Overseer as 11lb clear top weight this year renders the major trend of carries 11st+ almost obsolete with only 2 of the 14 declared fitting that criterion. I think he’s going to run a huge race and, crucially, stay every yard of the stamina sapping trip. If the step up in trip suits as much as I think and it will, Netminder should run a big race and I’ll be playing this one e/w.
No chance George In all seriousness, cracking write up. Reading that leads me to believe that you know the horse inside out and know what he can/can't achieve. Definitely backing this one e/w (although Philip Kirby's horse initially caught my eye).
Smashing write up george but no fooking chance lol Good luck mate. SHAMMICK BOY for me tomorrow, 3.55 Chepstow, a particularly unlucky loser last time and can make amends even off his revised mark.
BRICK RED (NAP) 3.15 Kempton... I was at Musselburgh last time, and was very impressed steps up tomorrow but has the scope to do so. A top priced 3/1 with PP and Laddies.
I have been having a look at the racing plus chase for tommorrow and interestimg race! Some up and coming chasers v some established ones!! Im gonna plum for Opening Batsman each way ! I think there will be a few pace setters tomorrow and Nacarat and Wyck Hill wont get easy leads.... Rolling Aces looks very progressive but has plenty of weight !Few question marks for some of these .... Quinz the 2011 winner is interesting and races off same mark from 2 years ago.. Roberto Goldback could run well now the National weights are out - he s trained by Henderson so say no more but i just fancy opening batsman who can improve on the better ground and possibly turn round his beating from rolling aces of 11l with the weight pull. Each way bet .......
2.05 Kempton: The Adonis Hurdle: Courtesy Call 12/1 I wonder if the market has got this all wrong. It looks to me like you have a sea of Triumph entrants who are not good enough (compared to Rolling Star/Our Connor/Far West) all at short and similar prices, and then you've got the unknown unexposed type like Courtesy Call. It looks to me like Nicky Henderson has had a straightforward plan with him- save him for the spring, school him well, and unleash him in the Adonis. I also take the booking of David Bass as a massive positive. Geraghty will 100% ride Rolling Star at the festival so why would he ride their second string entrant? Bass will ride him today, win, and then ride him at the festival as he bids to do what Daryl Jacob did in 2011 when winning the Adonis and the Triumph on a relatively unfancied (including by the yard) Zarkandar. He gets good ground, he is fresh, and crucially he is a proper Triumph type- flat bred and will relish the speed test round Kempton. I think he is a very interesting debutant and it is not like Nicky to pitch no hopers in at this level on debut. I reckon he will go off 7/1 or less.
Newcastle 2.55 Master Overseer 8/1 I think he is perfect for this race and will see this lot off from the front. He has a good claimer in Tom Bellamy taking 7lb off his back so is effectively running off a 2lb lower mark than when he won last time at Wincanton. He is an out and out stayer who just keeps galloping, 8/1 is a very fair price for a race in which he is fancied to go well. Good Luck.
Kempton is the most fascinating card with its good ground. Feels like an age since we've had proper graded racing on good ground. Potentially some winners at nice prices, going to look now. Seems Pricewise is taking us all on in the Eider with Chac Du Cadran and two in the RP Chase 3.50 at Kempton, Quinz and 1 more (possibly Same Difference). Some others for me up at Newcastle tomorrow Newcastle 1.45 Fentara 7/2 Newcastle 2.20 Rock Relief 12/1 NB (form on soft/heavy is streets ahead of good ground form)
I'll be on this one too Ardent put him up on here that Sunday he last won and was very impressed with the horse, Forgotten Voice has dropped another 2lbs and may improve from his reappearing 4th lto and Lac Fontana having a good debut over hurdles may well prove the one to beat if improving for that, going down a couple lenghts to Chatterbox, but i'll be taking a chance on Brick Red once again as i feel he is on an upward curve. Goodluck Ardent.
