ROSENEATH 3.40 Carlisle 20-1 has won on his last two seasonal reappearances and reappears here tomorrow off the same 115 mark that he won off on his bow last year. There seems to be a lot of interest in him having opened at 33's. The trip is perfect and he has won on soft ground and performed with credit on heavy so conditions should suit well enough.
This one jumped out at me as well Stick. Alex Hales had a winner and a good 2nd today so his horses seem to be running very well. Goes extremely well fresh, has form at the course and as you said back off his last winning mark. Should definitely run well but I have a sneaky suspicion Emperor's Choice might improved past him as he looks an out and out stayer. Definitely worth an e/w dabble at 20s though.
4.30 Southwell Bobs Ticket 20/1 Bobs Ticket could is more likely to be a miss than a hit but I thought he shaped very well for a long way on his 2nd start for current trainer Philip Kirby on his 2nd run back after more than a year off the track and I think he could be better than his current mark of 90 based on what he showed in P2Ps. Bobs Ticket showed some very useful form in Point To Points over in Ireland on more than one occasion including a narrow a 3L defeat at the hands of the pretty useful Beneficial Reform and his best effort in defeat came when going down 2L to the very useful hurdler Knock A Hand and finishing 10L clear of the very promising Imperial Vic at Lingstown in March 2011 on his 2nd last start between the flags. His final start in Points saw him an easy winner of a very average Point 2 Point in April 2011 before he joined Lucinda Russell. In June of that year, Bobs Ticket made a highly encouraging debut under rules over 25f at Perth when finishing a very decent 3rd behind the sadly deceased but talented Gordon Elliott trained Brave Beauty and 1L behind the 111 rated hurdler Latin Connection who easily won a Maiden Hurdle for Stuart Crawford on his next start. However, that was as good as it got for Bobs Ticket whose form tailed off horribly in his 4 subsequent outings for Russell (2 over hurdles, 2 over fences) and it looked very much like he needed a change of scenery. After 13 months off the track, Bobs Ticket was pulled up on his debut for Philip Kirby over 2m4f at Wetherby in December but I thought he showed a lot more promise on his latest start at Doncaster this month over 25f as he travelled very well from the front for a long way before today's jockey Adam Nicol was very easy on him once headed approaching 3 out. He's been dropped 5lb from that effort to a mark of 90 and I think he should strip a lot fitter for his first two runs this season. The drop back ot 2m4f looks like it will suit also and Nicol takes off a very valuable 6lb in this very weak looking contest. Judged on the form of his rules debut and runs in P2Ps, I definitely feel that Bobs Ticket has more than enough ability to score off his current mark of 90 and with Philip Kirby in very good form at present then hopefully he can return to his form of old at a nice price. ‎5.25 Wolves Mubtadi 4/1 If he breaks well and stays the just shy of 10f trip then I think Mubtadi will not be beaten tomorrow. A gelding operation and a switch of tactics has revitalised Ismail Mohammed's 5 year old who has won his last 2 starts and who still looks very well handicapped on old form off a mark of 62. Rated as high as 86, Mubtadi scored off a mark of 57 last month under todays jockey Thomas Brown in an Apprentice Handicap last month by a very comfortable 2.25L from a NTO winner and he followed up that success 8 days later when unpenalised off the same mark when value for oh so much more that the neck winning margin suggests. His young claimer gave Mubtadi an extremely canny ride not once raising his whip as he knew his mount was always holding the opposition and he did a fantastic job in conning the handicapper. Again, the form of that race looks very strong with the 4th and 6th scoring subsequently whilst the 2nd and 3rd have also gone very close to winning and its a race that has worked out very well. Considering he scored twice off a mark of 57, I feel the handicapper has been extremely lenient in raising him just 5lb and this revitalised horse still looks on an extremely workable mark of 62. The step up to just shy of 10f is a bit of an unknown but 4 of his half brothers won over the trip and his full brother was beaten a head at the trip in a Listed contest so breeding suggests that he'll have no problem with the extra distance at all. Young Thomas Brown again takes the ride and a very handy 5lb off and he's built up an excellent partnership with this 5 year old with the pair boasting a perfect 2-2 record when teaming up. With a perfect draw in stall 4, I think Mubtadi is going to be extremely difficult to beat and I firmly believe that if he breaks well he will win this.
Busy on here today! One I will flag up is Markadam in the 3.40 at Carlisle. Has a perfect 3/3 record at the track and has only ever won once elsewhere so clearly loves the place. 12lbs higher than the last win however was well on top that day and if appearing in the same form today I can see him definitely making the frame at 8/1
This 3.40 Carlisle race seems to have raised some interest. Timeform have Emperor's Choice 5lb clear on 147. Sydney Paget is 10lb behind EC but has a small "p". Roseneath is a "?" but has peaked at Master Rating 118 which would put him 5lb below EC Markadam is on the same as SP but without the "p" How much one adjusts these for various other factors (eg course wins) I don't know.
What I use is the formula - Timeform+distance (% turned into whole points) +ground (% into points)+ trainer form (%) * pi *0 Then I get my highlighter and randomly pick one. Todays highlighter came down on Titchwood in the 2.50
Ron was last seen running off shouting "I am making a spreadsheet of that" and "how do I get it to randomly generate highlighted cells"
Many many fortunes for 'Thereabouts' in the 5.25 and the informed cash is down. I would oppose that and ROTO's selection in favour of an EW proposition in the form of the 11yo SCAMPERDALE around the 10/1 mark. The prolific CD winner has shown some signs of a return to form of late and i wouldnt be put of by his age. I have no doubts though that the likely fav 'Thereabouts' will be thereabouts also.
2.50 Southwell is there for the taking for Wychwoods Brook. Hoping a little drift might take the odds out to odds against.
Informed that Honeball yard fancy CHILL FACTOR in the bumper today. No money for it though! Ron, this is the horse you put me off buying so it better not win LOL
Luckily I just missed that last race at Southwell, got delayed down at Halfords. Went in to get my headlights replaced and they had 2 bulbs on special double pack saver 17quid. I thought **** me that's a bit steep for 2 light bulbs but what choice does one have? 'Would you like them fitted?' they asked. 'Go on then' I said, for that price they might as well I thought. Took 6-7 minutes due to us having a decent chat and then I went to settle the bill. 17quid for the bulbs and 14quid for the fitting. What the ****!? . Here we are punting horses, we're in the wrong ****ing game.
I just drew a line through its last run, and suggested that he needed better ground. I like him as a sort too, and with AP in fine form, it was rude not to back him today. Had the stake on Terre Du Vent, who owes me one.
I've pooled together the resources of stick, ROTO and myself and played a very small combination tricast on our three selections! Here's hoping we are all on the ball!
