Daily Thread Wednesday 6th February

Nice mares race at Ludlow on Wednesday and I have a sneaky suspiscion that the Henderson horse may have got in lightly. No value in 2-1 in a handicap like this though and I have a fancy for another in the race. MISS OVERDRIVE 3.15 Ludlow 12-1 has her first race for Oliver Sherwood and that is one of a few reasons to have a little bit each way on her tomorrow. Additionally she is as good as a winner (btn 1/2l) off a two pound higher mark. Leighton Aspell chooses to ride her over All Annalena. She has a very good record first time up, 2 wins from a possible 4. She is a course and distance winner. Sherwood may eke out some improvement in her that Andy Turnell didnt find.
Plenty of reasons to support her in a race where most of the runners have gone up in the weights without winning. Hendo's is the danger but this mare will strip fit and looks primed to give a very good account!

Good luck if you play.

 

Only thing that caught my eye as well Stick. Has to overcome a 480 day absence but as you've said she's a pretty good record fresh. Good spot on him choosing to ride her over All Annalena.

 

I have backed CADOUDALUS (currently 9-1) for the 3.50, Richard Lee knows how to land a punt. This one has slipped to a handy mark and now sports first time cheekpieces.
If Miss Overdrive wins the bonus bet will be on ZIEFHD who I think is an incredible price at 33-1. Small yard that doesnt have many winners. 2% strike rate at the track in 5 years is awful but this fella has slipped a long way down the weights. Would benefit from an easy lead.

 

What do you think about Knockara Beau in the 4.05 carlisle stick?

 

Its a Pertemps Qualifier so not a race I spend too much time on. I had a look earlier as he seemed to be attracting support. At 10 he is hardly improving and while his run against Reve De Sivola reads quite well I dont think he is on a particularly handy mark right now.

KENT STREET is quite interesting in that race. Unseated twice over fences so reverted to hurdling and ran a nice race behind his stablemate Herdsman who won a good race at the weekend. KENT STREET stayed on well that day and may be very well suited by this longer trip.

Tough race with some fair novices taking on a seasoned and decent handicapper, you boys dont half pick em LOL

 

6.05 Kempton CON LECHE currently 6/1 don't think that will be around come the off, cheek pieces removed.

7.35 Kempton Crystal Peaks 5/1for the bang in form James Given

 

4.15 Southwell Mirth

Another Mark Johnston debutant who, as we all know, is always a trainer to follow at this time of year. Looks the part on breeding i dont think the standard set by the favourite Naalatt is that high. If Mirth is ready to go on debut i expect her to go very close to winning this

3.05 Southwell Lakeman

A race in which none of the horses really stand out i think Lakeman has a good chance to at least make the frame off a mark of 55. Finished second off this mark over C+D three starts back and a little bit further back also finished second off a mark of 59 also over todays C+D. Wears first time cheekpieces and if these can eke out a little bit of improvement i think he should at least finish in the first three and hopefully get his head in front in a race that wont take much winning

 

My opinion was that if he was trying then I think he will win (won this back in 2011 so could easily be trying) but my fear would be that given he is 10 years old he'll probably be handicapped out of things if he won tomorrow and finishing position is not taken into account for qualification. Then again, his target at the festival could easily be over fences. I think he probably will be trying tomorrow but I'll refrain from having a bet as connections may feel this is getting close to his last chance to win at the festival and getting dropped a few lbs could be very handy if taking in the Pertemps Final

 

Morning all

My last couple that i have put up on here are still running i think but i think todays horse will do a lot better (Hoping). It runs in the 2.00 Southwell:

ACE OF SPIES only ran yesterday and finished in 4th but this was over 7F. Today he is running back over 6F. I'm not put off by the quick reappearance because he has run and won before after a few days off. However he is a bit of a specialist over this distance especially when it is riding slower than standard which it currantly is. His form is currently 13312321 with todays conditions. Around 5/1 so even if placed it will be a small profit.

Good luck all today

 

Looks a cracking bet Sticklar, I wonder if she would prefer faster ground though, only thing stopping me lumping on big time!

 

Regaldinho 2.10 Ludlow won easy lto

11/10 still available

Great chance make it 3 wins in a row

Gazman

 

After looking through the cards my 3 for today will be:

2.00S - Ace of Spies
3.40S - Electrician
4.35L - Billy Cuckoo

Could be a fav's day in the first 3 races at both Ludlow and Carlisle. Put some money on them at combined odds of 5/2 and 6/1.

 

Thanks for the insight stick and ROTO. This was my concern also, weather he was going to be raced to win. I couldnt resist having a little bet last night at 5/1 and its gone down to 3/1 this morning. Hopefully this is a sign of confidence and not others like me hopeing for it to be ran to its potential. :S lets wait and see haha.

 

1.30 Southwell: Mystical Witch 25/1 (E.W)

Plenty of disappointing efforts from this one and making a solid case is difficult. There is one standout piece of form- a 100/1 neck 2nd in a maiden here at Southwell over 7f, described as 'ran on' at the finish, so 8f is not a major concern for me today. Trainer Mrs Dunnett has not had a great time at Southwell in the last 12 months, but it remains consistently her best course with a 10% strike rate from just under 300 runners- markedly higher than her runners at Lingfield (3.03%), Wolverhampton (6.15%) and Kempton (4.66%).

Southwell is an absolute specialist AW track and I am taking a chance that the surface re-ignites this horse and that is proves well handicapped on this surface even though it is 5lb out of the weights. Joe Fanning gets the leg up and has the ideal draw to make plenty of use of him. If he handles the surface as well today, he might take some pegging back.

I still think Miami Gator looks out of form and this is his first foray onto the surface, Efistorm has stamina doubts, and whilst Bladewood Girl might yet be the best horse in this race at the top of the weights (strong maiden form), it is disconcerting to see it thrown into Southwell handicaps for the first time.

With those doubts in mind, it looks logical to play an e/w on the selection.

 

Good afty all... hope we are all fit n well...

Carlisle...
1.50 - Eduard, 1/6
2.20 - Ballybriggan, 11/4
2.55 - Hidden Identity, 8/11
3.30 - Markadam, 14/1
4.05 - Green Flag, 4/1
4.35 - Master Milan, 3/1

Ludlow...
1.40 - Priors Gold, 4/9
2.10 - Reginaldinho, 10/11
2.40 - New Years Eve, 2/7
3.15 - All Ammalena, 13/2
3.50 - Valmari, 11/4
4.25 - Shootin The Breeze, 13/2
4.55 - Three Kingdoms, 7/1

Some short uns and longer ones... Will have a bet as the day goes by...

 

2.10 Ludlow:

Danandy 25/1 e.w & Mystic Appeal 12/1

A trappy novice chase contest where I am inclined to take on Reginaldinho of Venetia Williams. I can't have a Galileo son staying 3m chasing. They have been low grade chases that he has won the last twice, and in a novice event like this you just don't know who will improve for the switch to chasing.

Danandy requires a leap of faith in some ways. Tailed off the last twice, it would appear we need the addition of headgear to solve some problems today. That said however, when we consider the opposition he has faced the last twice in novice hurdles, it is no surprise he struggled. A novice hurdle at Ascot has thrown up 130-140 rated horses, including EASTER DAY- a 9 length 2nd to TAQUIN DU SEIL. The other was in a race won by the talented Gevrey Chambertin. Last year Danandy won a NHF race after winning his point, and was then an unlucky 2nd on hurdle debut, before being badly hampered and eased on his second hurdles start. He beat Mystic Appeal in that 2nd placed novice hurdle effort, and he has beaten horses rated around 125, so he could still be anything over fences if he perks back up.

MYSTIC APPEAL has stayed more consistent however, and absolutely screams of a horse who can improve for the switch to fences for Jeremy Scott and Nick Schofield. He has shaped like a staying chaser in all sorts of novice hurdle races, never quite getting going to threaten in those, but giving a strong impression that he will love staying chasing and looks set to improve for the switch. He is less likely to be outpaced over the larger obstacles and if he jumps well, I really like his chances today at 12/1.

 

Afternoon, crew. Nothing for me today although am keen to see if New Year’s Eve can boast him growing reputation at Ludders later on.

I won’t bore everyone yet again with another rant about UK prizemoney v. race loot available at Meydan but cor blimey it almost makes you wonder how much longer UK racing will continue when you see the pots they are chasing tomorrow in the old Desert.

Finally, turning to the positive, it's great to see old boy Tricky Trickster back tomorrow (4.15 Huntingdon) after almost 2 years off.