E/W Patent and E/W Accy Maslak @ 12/1 4.20 Lingaz Miami Gator @ 7/1 6.00 Wolvaz Shawkantango @ 14/1 7.30 Wolvaz
Tell Me Why, 2.45 Catt, looks just the sort of dour stayer Jonjo excels with. If you accept the trainer's explanation that the bottomless ground was responsible for his poor run at Chepstow, then he can be forgiven that run and be backed to go one better than he did at Towcester in November. A shade under 7s on Betfair. My other bet today is Ros Castle in the 3.55. Got off to a flyer at Kelso in October, and has progressed from there, losing nothing in two narrow defeats to better weighted rivals. The support for Categorical is a concern of course, but the Dobbin animal jumps well, is improving, and on this season's form is the one to beat.
Just been looking through the longest race of the day at Catterick, the 25f Hurdle at 14:45. If there is one thing I like in racing it's a test of stamina. Even though the ground is rated as only soft, I think a few will struggle to get the trip today. The one I like is the bottom weight Carmela Maria. Despite being on the wrong side of the weights, I think she'll appreciate the 9-5 she'll carry today compared to the massive weight she was allotted last time out. Of course the company today is a lot stronger, but she likes the track and I think she's amazing value at around the 25-1 mark. 14:45 Carmela Marie EW.
Have taken some 8/1 about Hardy Red in Lingfields claimer. He won a handicap off 71 ad waa ery good 3rd behind the 894 rated Equitiana. The race wasnt run to suit that day and Equitiana dictated, but Hardy Red kept on well. Heas been below form since but back up to 7f around Lingfield should suit, especially in a small field and I think he might have enough kick to go past Black Jacobin, who is a dangerous front runner if allowed to dictate too easily (as I found at Chesters August meeting) Hardy Red receives weight and ahs the form to play a big hand.
2.45 Catterick Carmela Maria 14/1 Despite racing from 6lb out of the handicap off an effective mark of 99 and coming back off a woeful run at Sedgefield, I quite fancy the chances of Mike Sowesby's 8 year old now returned to her favourite venue where she has a tremendous record over today's C+D of 1-1-3-1-F. I tipped her up at a big price back in December when she was scoring in the same event for the 2nd year running off the same mark of 85 and it came as absolutely no surprise to me that she won well as it was clear that connections had been targeting that Class 4 event for quite a while. She did so in good style, pulling away after the last to score by 5L in a weak enough event despite not travelling overly well for a large part of the journey. 10 days later at the end of December she tried to repeat history for the 2nd time in consecutive years when sent off the 100/30 favourite under a 7lb penalty and she travelled an awful lot better than she did for her latest victory and there is no doubt in my mind she was going to take a hell of a beating that day before falling at 4 out. It was a shame to see her go down but luckily she didn't seem to do any lasting damage. Her last start came at Sedgefield on the 11th of January where she finished a well beaten 8th but that is of absolutely no concern to me as she is a completely different horse at Catterick - as suggested by her 0-22 record away from the track. Although its going to take a career best to win today as she is (effectively) 9lb above her last winning mark, I certainly think she's up to defying it. Back in December 2011 she scored by a comfortable 7L (27L clear of the 3rd) from a horse who scored on his only subsequent outing off a 5lb higher mark and perhaps even more telling was her 1L defeat over this C+D last February off a mark of 102. Under today's rider and regular partner 7lb claimer Edmond Linehan, she was given a patient ride and was worked very nicely into the race and looked to hold every chance going over the last but couldn't get there in time as she had to settle for a narrowly beaten 3rd. The form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner Howizee, who probably one a shade cosily, winning 2 starts later off a 2lb higher mark impressively as well as getting beaten a head off a 19lb higher mark 3 starts later and he is 22lb higher than his success that day. Despite being 6lb out of the handicap, she races off an absolutely lovely racing weight of 9-7 when factoring in Ed Linehan's claim and I think its also quite significant that two of her wins came when carrying less than 10 stone and she is clearly a horse who goes well with little weight on her back. This is definitely her toughest test to date as she steps into a Class 3 handicap at the track for the first time but based on her comprehensive victory off a 9lb lower mark and narrow defeat off a 3lb higher mark at the track I definitely feel she's weighted to make her presence felt. Looking through the field, I also think it could be significant that only one of her opponents has ever ran at Catterick's undulating track (well beaten) and she could easily be the best suited horse in the field to the track where I think she is probably 2 stone better than any other venue. With the testing conditions suiting her down to the ground at a track where she has never been beaten more than a length in her completed starts in handicaps, I'm confident of a big showing from this admirable mare on what is her trainer and jockeys only engagements of the day.
Afternoon guys 2 at lingfield for me in SPELLMAKER 2.35 and KING GEORGE RIVER 3.45 singles and double good luck if you play
Roast beef, with mustard & salad on Granary. That was best bet of the day. Here is one, I want Sandown to get rid of their hurdles and do full chase cards from now on. A course as good as that deserves to be jumped rather than those little crash through hurdles.
Nice bit of Northern race fixing there at Catterick. Red Seal had practically got the better of everything between flights but the massively gambled on favourite was allowed to stride past and then Brian Toomey practcally pulled Red Seal up at the last hurdle to make sure he couldnt fight back as he had no momentum. Stuff like that should be investigated in my opinion.
Tucking into Butternut Squash soup with last night's Chicken on a sandwich..hmm , watching sticks tip tumble in price
Red Leicester on toast for me. Nass I see Consigliere out tomorrow over timber off 128..been dropped 7lb's since he ran behind SOF at the festival on his last outing over hurdles. Haven't had a good look at race in depth yet.
ROTO, any views on Miami Gator running later? I remember you putting him up a few times last season, he would seem to have a good chance to me.
Nothing leaps off the page today. Good card at Punchestown on Sunday..cracking novice hurdle as well as one of those fiddling Pertemps impossible to solve qualifiers. Lambro and Murchu are of preliminary interest in the h'cap 'chases.
He could well go very well but given that he's on a mark of 62 my thought process was that they might get him down another couple of lbs and enter him into a 0-60. He's a well handicapped animal though
John Quinn has done a tremendous job with his juvenile hurdlers this year and looks set to launch a 3 pronged attack to win the Triumph for the 2nd year running with Kashmir Peak, Calculated Risk and today's impressive victor Hidden Justice. Funnily enough, I actually think Hidden Justice is probably his 3rd best!
Rachel Green unseated...what a shock! She must be blackmailing Honeyball to keep getting used...wonder what dirt she has on him!!
