Grand National 2013 Saturday 6th April

Entries - Press Release Jan 13th 2013

Weights released - Feb 12th 2013

Threads covering Grand National "trials"

Saturday 8th December 2012 - Becher Chase

Betfred Grand National Trial Saturday Haydock 2.55


Betting Guide as at Christmas Eve

20 Join Together, On His Own, Seabass

25 Cappa Bleu, Prince De Beauchene, Shakalakaboomboom, Sunnyhillboy, Teaforthree, Tidal Bay

33 Across The Bay, Alfie Sherrin, Beshabar, Bradley, Burton Port, Junior, Long Run, Magnanimity, Roberto Goldback, The Package

40 Aimigayle , Any Currency, Ballabriggs, Big Fella Thanks, Frisco Depot, Harry The Viking, Ikorodu Road, Lion Na Bearnai, Organisedconfusion, Planet Of Sound, Saint Are, Up The Beat, Weird Al

50 Auroras Encore, Baby Run, Backstage, Balthazar King, Chicago Grey, Galaxy Rock, Giles Cross, Hello Bud, Hey Big Spender, Hold On Julio, Hunt Ball, Imperial Commander, Killyglen, Knockara Beau, Master Overseer, Oscar Time, Portrait King, Quantitativeeasing, Quartz De Thaix, Quel Esprit, Quiscover Fontaine, Sire Collonges, Start Me Up, Tharawaat, The Rainbow Hunter, Time For Rupert, Tofino Bay, Treacle, Uncle Junior, West End Rocker

66 Always Waining, Arabella Boy, Cannington Brook, Carruthers, Fistral Beach, Forpadydeplasterer, Fruity Orooney, Gullible Gordon, Lie Forrit, Merigo, Midnight Chase, Poker De Sivola, Roalco De Farges, Wayward Prince

100 Always Right, Becauseicouldntsee, Billie Magern, Chapoturgeon, Cooldine, Cootehill, Crash, Dashing George, King Fontaine, Major Malarkey, Mon Mome, Mon Parrain, Neptune Equester, Out Now, Premier Sagas, Promising Anshan, Skippers Brig, Swing Bill, Sybarite, The Bishop Looney, Viking Blond

 

A lot of GN trials these days are 2m4f hurdles.

 

As long as the poster indicates that they are Grand National "trials" I'll add them to the index.

 

I'll be keeping a close eye on Tharawaat. Just 7 years old in last year's GN, beaten 21l "Prominent, lost place 10th, hampered 2nd Bechers, tailed off 2nd Canal Turn, stayed on approaching 2 out". Only 2 races since, beaten 36l and pu (both over 3 miles) so hardly likely to go up in the weights (can't go down much) but should be stronger as an 8yo. Seems to thrive on heavy going so to make up so much ground on good going was some effort.

Most unlikely pedigree for the GN. The sire being Unfuwain (by Northern Dancer out of the Bustino/Highclere production Height Of Fashion) and the dam being a Sir Ivor daughter out of a Nijinsky mare - more like a classic pedigree. However, on his first venture beyond 3 miles he certainly put up a sterling performance for a 7yo.

Personally I don't like seeing horses that young in the GN but the form is there and at 50/1 maybe that will prove to be decent value. I would imagine though that a bigger price could be found.

 

Oh well. Looks as though Tharawaat isn't entered. Hopefully he is OK and will turn up as a 9yo next year.

 

Hello again Ron.
Remember me from the Arc discussions last year?
Bad luck with Tharawaat.
Try a small EW on Midnight chase at 66/1.
Coming back down the weights and has a decent overall profile for this year's GN.

 

Yes I do Campo. That was Orfevre's race to lose. He is a monkey. Extremely talented but doesn't like being in front. Needs to be held up as late as possible.

I'm pleased Tharawaat won't be running as an 8yo. I hope running him as a 7yo has had no lasting effect. They appear to be going easy with him in 2 races since so hopefully he will get in with a light weight next year.

Presumably Midnight Chase will have Dougie Costello up? If so I might have a little ew (don't usually bet).

 

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Grand National 2013: Tidal Bay tops Timeform's Ratings

Popular veteran Tidal Bay tops both the handicap and Timeform ratings following this morning's launch of the weights for the 2013 John Smith's Grand National...

The mercurial twelve-year-old, Tidal Bay, has enjoyed a new lease of life since joining last year's winning trainer Paul Nicholls, notably when lowering the colours of the two current best Irish-trained chasers, Flemenstar and Sir des Champs, with a last-gasp win in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown in late-December, and he holds strong claims of adding a Grand National win to his CV thanks to some leniency from BHA handicapper Phil Smith.

In recent years, Smith has adopted a policy of favouring those entries towards the head of the weights in a bid to encourage top-end quality runners in the Aintree showpiece. As a result, Tidal Bay has been allotted a mark of just 162 for the Grand National as opposed to his current BHA rating of 171.

Timeform's Jumps Handicapper, Phil Turner, commented: "People shouldn't be put off by the fact that Tidal Bay is top weight in the Grand National as he's clearly the best-handicapped horse in the field.

"He'd be 9lb worse off with the vast majority of his Grand National rivals if meeting them on a conventional track. Indeed, he's even due to carry 4lb less than when he finished runner-up to Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth in the Hennessy at Newbury earlier this season!"

Tidal Bay has tackled the Aintree fences just once before, unseating Brian Hughes at the tenth when a 28/1 shot in 2011 on his final outing for former trainer Howard Johnson.

Meanwhile, the Welsh-trained pair Cappa Bleu and Beshabar make the most appeal amongst the remainder on Timeform ratings for the four-and-a-half-mile marathon.

Turner added: "Cappa Bleu was a strong-finishing fourth to Neptune Collonges last year and arguably should have been asked for his effort earlier, so he's definitely one for the shortlist. Beshabar has presumably had his training problems to have been so lightly raced of late, but he's an out-and-out stayer who should be suited by the demands of Aintree."

Timeform Weight-Adjusted Ratings

185 TIDAL BAY

180 BESHABAR

180 CAPPA BLEU

180? OSCAR TIME

179+ WYCK HILL

179 QUEL ESPRIT

179? IMPERIAL COMMANDER

178 ALBERTAS RUN

178 HARRY THE VIKING

178 RARE BOB

178 ROBERTO GOLDBACK

178? JESSIES DREAM

178$ WEIRD AL

Selected Others

176+ PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE

176 BALLABRIGGS

176 THE PACKAGE

174p KATENKO

173 JOIN TOGETHER

172 SEABASS

172 SUNNYHILLBOY

170+ COLBERT STATION

168+ ON HIS OWN


To contact timeform

 

FAVOURITE SEABASS GIVEN 11st 2lb IN 2013 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL​

The Ted Walsh-trained Seabass, who finished third in last year’s John Smith’s Grand National, has been allotted 11lb 2lb in the 166th running of the great chase, for which the weights are unveiled this morning.

Betfred, betting partner at the John Smith’s Grand National meeting, make Seabass - who carried 10st 12lb in 2012 - one of their 14/1 co-favourites to go two places better this year and Walsh reports the 10-year-old to be bang on course for the £975,000 John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree on Saturday, April 6.

“Seabass will run somewhere in the next three weeks to a month. There is just over seven weeks to Liverpool so I would like to get a run into him. The Bobbyjo Chase at Naas and the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton are possible targets,” said Walsh.

But, speaking before seeing the full weights, he added: “I don’t know how Seabass can get over 11st this year if Tidal Bay is rated 171 and my horse is rated 154. Whatever Phil Smith does, he does - it is immaterial to me and I can’t change it. You don’t have to be a great mathematician to subtract 54 from 71.”

The weights for Jump racing’s most famous prize were announced at the John Smith’s Grand National Launch in London today. It is the only race for which the weights are specifically framed by the British Horseracing Authority’s Head of Handicapping, Phil Smith.

This year’s weights are headed on 11st 10lb (rated 162) by the mercurial but hugely-talented Tidal Bay (16/1), who boasts three wins over hurdles and fences at Aintree. After saddling 52 beaten horses in the John Smith’s Grand National, Tidal Bay’s handler Paul Nicholls finally saw his luck change last year when Neptune Collonges prevailed.

The champion trainer is also represented by Join Together (10st 12lb, 20/1), who has not been seen since finishing runner-up in the Betfred Becher Chase at Aintree on December 8, and a pair part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson - 2010 Betfred Bowl winner What A Friend (11st 5lb, 33/1) and Harry The Viking (10st 2lb, 25/1).

Tidal Bay’s owners, Andrea and Graham Wylie, boast an enviable hand this year and account for
Betfred’s two other 14/1 co-favourites with Seabass. On His Own (10st 10lb) and Prince De Beauchene (11st 3lb) are among seven entries bidding to give Willie Mullins, successful with
Hedgehunter in 2005, a second John Smith’s Grand National victory.

A strong Irish-trained entry of 31 includes another top contender from Ted Walsh’s stable in J P
McManus’s Colbert Station (10st 11lb, 20/1), winner of the Paddy Power Handicap Chase over three miles at Leopardstown on December 27 and the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle qualifier at Punchestown on February 3.

“Like Seabass, Colbert Station will possibly have one more run. I have no idea where he will go at this stage as he only recently ran. I would also be looking at running him in three weeks to a month’s time, which will be ideal timing for the National.”

Nearly all of Colbert Stations’s races have come on soft or heavy ground but this does not concern Walsh: “I wouldn’t be worried about the ground for Colbert Station as it is never anything worse than good jumping ground at Aintree.

“He has 10st 6lb in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton and is 3lb higher in England than he is in Ireland, which makes him worse off with Seabass in England.”

Walsh’s daughter Katie achieved the highest-ever John Smith’s Grand National placing for a female rider when third last year on Seabass, while McManus’s retained jockey Tony McCoy has been aboard Colbert Station for his two recent successes. But Walsh, also father of Ruby, stated that there is plenty of time to decide who will ride his duo.

“The question of who will ride both horses is the least of my worries at the moment. My only worry is the two horses arrive at Liverpool in good form, healthy and well,” added the trainer. “Who rides them is a question for another day. I am not even thinking about it and there is no pressure on anybody.

“Nobody has to make their mind up until I have to declare for the race - I don’t need to know if Tony McCoy is available or Ruby Walsh is available until they make their minds up and at the declaration stage will do for me.”

Ballabriggs, who won the 2011 John Smith’s Grand National off 11 stone, has been allotted the same weight again this year, having finished sixth under 11st 9lb in 2012. Trainer Donald McCain is happy with the weight given to the 33/1 chance.

“That weight is fine for Ballabriggs and it will be grand if the top horse (Tidal Bay) runs because then we will have a lovely racing weight,” said McCain. “He has come out of his race at Warwick OK. He will go to Kelso for the Premier Chase as he has done for the past two years and then on to Aintree.”

There has been only one Welsh-trained Grand National winner, Kirkland in 1905, but the principality could field a formidable team this year with eight entries. Leading contenders include Welsh National runner-up Teaforthree (10st 13lb, 20/1), based in Pembrokeshire with Rebecca Curtis, and last year’s fourth, Cappa Bleu (10st 7lb, 25/1), whose trainer Evan Williams has had a runner reach the frame in the last four renewals.
The three-time John Smith’s Topham Chase winner Always Waining (10st 6lb, 50/1) could step up in trip for Peter Bowen, while Tim Vaughan’s 2011 Scottish Grand National winner Beshabar (20/1) has 1lb less on 10st 5lb.

The John Smith’s Grand National now regularly attracts some of the best chasers in training and among those engaged this year are the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander (33/1), who has 11st 6lb, and Albertas Run (11st 8lb, 33/1), winner of the 2010 Grade One John Smith’s Melling Chase at Aintree and two Ryanair Chases at Cheltenham.

The Colm Murphy-trained Quito De La Roque (40/1), who bounced back to form when winning the Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles last month, has 11st 5lb.

There is one entry based in France, the Yann Porzier-trained Odysseas, but the 100/1 shot is not certain to make the final line-up with a weight of 9st 3lb. Last year the 72nd horse in the weights at the time of the Launch was the lowest-weighted horse to make the line-up, which would equate to a weight of 9st 8lb this year.

John Baker, Regional Director North West of Jockey Club Racecourses, commented: “The countdown really gets underway today to what promises to be both an ultra-competitive and high-class renewal of the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree on Saturday, April 6.

“Alongside the Aintree specialists and winners of many of the top staying handicaps, we also have some of the top chasers in training engaged, including a Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup victor.

“Irish raiders have won six of the last 14 renewals and there is a particularly strong entry from Ireland that could enhance that record this year while there looks a real chance of a first Welsh-trained winner since 1905.”

Continued.........

 

THE 2013 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL​

Class 1, Grade 3, £975,000 total prize fund. 4.15pm, Aintree, Saturday, April 6, 2013, about four miles, three and a half furlongs. For seven-year-olds and upwards who, up to and including March 18, 2013, have been placed first, second, third or fourth in a chase of three miles or more and which are allotted a rating of 120 or more by the BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races run up to and including February 10, 2013. Horses who are not qualified for a rating in Great Britain or Ireland at closing may also be entered. Such horses may be eligible for a weight providing the handicapper is satisfied that the horse's racecourse performances up to and ncluding February 10 would merit a minimum rating of 120. To qualify, horses must have run at least three times in chases run under the Rules of Racing of the same Recognised Racing Authority up to and including February 10, 2013. At the handicapper's discretion, such horses may be allocated a rating. The decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final. The British Horseracing Authority has modified Rule (F)42.2.1 for the purposes of this race, such that racecourse performances up to and including Sunday, February 12, may be taken into account. A novice horse shall only be qualified to run in this race if it has run a minimum of three times in chases in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with Rule (F)42.5. Highest weight 11st 10lb - no penalties after publication of the weights. Entries closed January 29, entries revealed January 30 (84 entries, 1 subsequently scratched before publication of the weights), weights revealed February 12, first scratchings’ deadline February 26, second scratchings’ deadline March 19. Five-day confirmation stage April 1, final declaration stage 10.00am, April 4. Maximum field size of 40, plus four reserves. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Sunday, February 10.


Form Horse Age/Wgt Owner Trainer

1) 541-121 TIDAL BAY (IRE) 12-11-10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls
2) P12/123- ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 12-11-08 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
3) 51U/1P/-2 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 12-11-06 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies
4) 13-3361 QUITO DE LA ROQUE (FR) 9-11-05 Gigginstown House Stud Colm Murphy IRE
5) 4P/33F0- WHAT A FRIEND 10-11-05 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls
6) 4-F0211 KATENKO (FR) 7-11-04 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams
7) 13PF-4PP WEIRD AL (IRE) 10-11-04 Brannon Dick Holden Donald McCain
8) 351/51-1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10-11-03 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
9) F1113-04 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9-11-03 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
10) 440/-U31 BIG FELLA THANKS 11-11-02 Crossed Fingers Partnership Tom George
11) 000-1U35 ROBERTO GOLDBACK (IRE) 11-11-02 Simon Munir Nicky Henderson
12) 1//11113-2 SEABASS (IRE) 10-11-02 Gunners Syndicate Ted Walsh IRE
13) 5110-P4 CALGARY BAY (IRE) 10-11-01 Camilla Radford Mick Channon
14) 234-F211 CALL THE POLICE (IRE) 10-11-01 DD Racing Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
15) 11/P10/-0 PANDORAMA (IRE) 10-11-01 Robert Bagnall Noel Meade IRE
16) 511112 ROI DU MEE (FR) 8-11-01 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
17) 121/46-P0 BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 12-11-00 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain
18) 310-3P4 MIDNIGHT CHASE 11-11-00 Lady Clarke Neil Mulholland
19) P012-5P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 10-11-00 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
20) P11-062 TEAFORTHREE (IRE) 9-10-13 T437 Rebecca Curtis
21) P3-1120 ACROSS THE BAY (IRE) 9-10-12 Scotch Piper Syndicate Donald McCain
22) 11P3-02 JOIN TOGETHER (IRE) 8-10-12 Ian Fogg & Paul Barber Paul Nicholls
23) 5/230-53 PLANET OF SOUND 11-10-12 Charles Lloyd-Baker Philip Hobbs
24) 0511306 BOB LINGO (IRE) 11-10-11 J P McManus Tom Mullins IRE
25) 413-5211 COLBERT STATION (IRE) 9-10-11 J P McManus Ted Walsh IRE
26) 6P00-1FP LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 11-10-11 Tony Bloom Nigel Twiston-Davies
27) 1-12141 TOFINO BAY (IRE) 10-10-11 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE
28) 64-2P153 FORPADYDEPLASTERER (IRE) 11-10-10 Goat Racing Syndicate Thomas Cooper IRE
29) 4P1/B1F- ON HIS OWN (IRE) 9-10-10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
30) 20-35233 JONCOL (IRE) 10-10-09 Kay Browne Paul Nolan IRE
31) 10511-P LION NA BEARNAI (IRE) 11-10-09 The Lock Syndicate Tom Gibney IRE
32) P0F1-12 BALTHAZAR KING (IRE) 9-10-08 The Brushmakers Philip Hobbs
33) 5/5/4-14P THE PACKAGE 10-10-08 David Johnson David Pipe
34) P-06F226 BOSTONS ANGEL (IRE) 9-10-07 Elder Scouller Jessica Harrington IRE
35) P//1334-2 CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 11-10-07 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams
36) 632/4-4U OSCAR TIME (IRE) 12-10-07 Robert Waley-Cohen/Sir Martin & Steve Broughton Martin Lynch IRE
37) 044001- ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 12-10-06 Mr & Mrs Peter Douglas Peter Bowen
38) 01236-14 LAMBRO (IRE) 8-10-06 Byerley Thoroughbred Racing Willie Mullins IRE
39) 131P/PP- QUINZ (FR) 9-10-06 Andrew Cohen Philip Hobbs
40) 0/015U-6 TATENEN (FR) 9-10-06 The Stewart Family Richard Rowe
41) 1/U121/5- BESHABAR (IRE) 11-10-05 Middleham Park Racing X & Ann Burrows Tim Vaughan
42) 30/1122/- JESSIES DREAM (IRE) 10-10-05 David Johnson Gordon Elliott IRE
43) 51423F- TREACLE (IRE) 12-10-05 Bjorn Nielsen Tom Taaffe IRE
44) 011611 LOST GLORY (NZ) 8-10-04 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
45) 1211-5F PROBLEMA TIC (FR) 7-10-04 Jo Tracey David Pipe
46) 4U01-F4 SAINT ARE (FR) 7-10-04 David Fox Tim Vaughan
47) 00P-P14 SWING BILL (FR) 12-10-04 David Johnson David Pipe
48) 11F2-11 WYCK HILL (IRE) 9-10-04 SAB Partnership David Bridgwater
49) 2B-0U63 CHICAGO GREY (IRE) 10-10-03 John Earls Gordon Elliott IRE
50) PP-52202 MAGNANIMITY (IRE) 9-10-03 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE
51) 4010F-60 QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 9-10-03 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE
52) 2F-63PP BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 10-10-02 Noel Glynn Noel Glynn IRE
53) 21B-4FP FRISCO DEPOT 9-10-02 Waley-Cohen, Burke, Broughton, Broughton Charlie Longsdon
54) 112P-P0 HARRY THE VIKING 8-10-02 Sir Alex Ferguson, Ged Mason, R Wood & P Done Paul Nicholls
55) 053B0-6 RARE BOB (IRE) 11-10-02 D A Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE
56) 04-311P THE RAINBOW HUNTER 9-10-02 May We Never Be Found Out Partnership Kim Bailey
57) 0-23602 MR MOONSHINE (IRE) 9-10-01 Sue Smith Sue Smith
58) 1133FP MUMBLES HEAD (IRE) 12-10-00 Karen Bowen Peter Bowen
59) 30/F2PP-4 PEARLYSTEPS 10-10-00 The Glazeley Partnership Henry Daly

Cont...

 

60) 2-U0P45 AURORAS ENCORE (IRE) 11-9-13 D Pryde, J Beaumont & D P van der Hoeven Sue Smith
61) 1F-3F604 NINETIETH MINUTE (IRE) 10-9-13 Dermot Cox Tom Taaffe IRE
62) 0513-30 ALFIE SHERRIN 10-9-12 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
63) 1P1142 TARQUINIUS (FR) 10-9-12 Mary Furlong Gordon Elliott IRE
64) 030U-06 MATUHI 10-9-11 Willsford Racing Incorporated David Pipe
65) 04-13116 MISTER HYDE (IRE) 8-9-11 Bensaranat Club & Bill McLuskey Jonjo O'Neill
66) 3-614U4 ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 10-9-10 Cash Is King Martin Keighley
67) 1P-4PP0 CROSS APPEAL (IRE) 7-9-10 John Corr Noel Meade IRE
68) 50-6440 TARTAK (FR) 10-9-10 Power Panels Electrical Systems Ltd Tim Vaughan
69) 4P2P-26 MAJOR MALARKEY (IRE) 10-9-09 Baker, Dodd & Cooke Nigel Twiston-Davies
70) (0)6U1/-50 POKER DE SIVOLA (FR) 10-9-09 David Johnson Ferdy Murphy
71) 1P/1/401-3 SUMMERY JUSTICE (IRE) 9-9-09 Mrs H Brown Venetia Williams
72) P/5000/P- BACKSTAGE (FR) 11-9-08 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE
73) 1/21B-00 SOLL 8-9-08 Derrick Mossop Jo Hughes
74) U1F1020 ROMANESCO (FR) 8-9-07 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
75) 0-121365 SHAKERVILZ (FR) 10-9-07 Wicklow Bloodstock Limited Willie Mullins IRE
76) FP-023P2 VIKING BLOND (FR) 8-9-07 Caroline Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies
77) 40//2161-3 CLOUDY LANE 13-9-06 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain
78) 05r316 OUTLAW PETE (IRE) 9-9-06 J P McManus John Halley IRE
79) 120-25F FABALU (IRE) 11-9-05 Tim Leslie Donald McCain
80) 0-000165 PENTIFFIC (NZ) 10-9-04 P Sinn, P Lawrence, L Sutcliffe, M Smith Venetia Williams
81) 33F425 ODYSSEAS (FR) 10-9-03 Mrs Jean Porzier Yann Porzier FR
82) 0/44-060 GULLIBLE GORDON (IRE) 10-9-02 Yeh Man Partnership Peter Bowen
83) 1P-2215 MORTIMERS CROSS 12-9-02 John Needham John Needham

83 entries
31 Irish-trained
1 French-trained

SCRATCHED: ORGANISEDCONFUSION (IRE)


Full press release

 

Tidal Bay a banker lay. Carrying 1lb more than in the 2011 National when blundered and unseated rider. Now 12 years old. IMHO absolutely no chance.

Pile on folks

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Thanks PN...always a very exciting disclosure.

Wyck Hill and Alfie Sherrin appeal at first glance.

 

Correct Ron, but the 2011 version of Tidal Bay looked a lot different to the beast of this season. I think he's got a good chance myself

 

Max field remains at 40.

 

Reducing the field size was one of the options mooted, but, for some reason, they decided against it.

Personally I'd be in favour of a reduced field size, as you say the drop in jump size will only encourage them to jump them at a faster speed.

 

I think its very interesting that they are compressing the handicap, it gives the horses at the top a really good chance, and as long as its not a rare "slog in the mud" I wouldn't be shocked to see big runs from horses at the top of the weights, Tidal Bay looks to be the one he has let in lightly, but many are interesting, including the other old boy Imperial Commander, who if he improves on his return, looks a right blot.

I would be very happy to back either TB on IC on the day, but lets see how they come out of the festival first. This is why my two for the race are Cappa Bleu and Teaforthree, both due to run this weekend. Good runs and they will shorten further.

 

Easy to forecast.
Jessies Dream to beat Cappa Bleu and Planet Of Sound.