Full season ahead of us that will no doubt throw up some twists & turns. It is very hard to get away from SDC as he has travelled very sweetly during his 2 festival wins to date. I'd have my doubts about Flemenstar getting the 3m 2f.
Great read Oddy. Firstly the easy bit, Grand Crus looks to be one of the worst 16/1 shots in history, anyone taking that about a horse who won't get a yard more than 22f at Cheltenham needs sectioning. The hard bit, who can win it ? I am intrigued by Flemenstar who could be exceptional, Sir Des champes is a horse I love but I think he needs to improve by a good few pounds to figure, the form of the Jewson was boosted by For Non Stops performance last week but I just get the feeling that race is for horses who won't/may not get the RSA trip and I;m not sure you can go from being a top class 20f horse to being the best 26.5f horse in the land in a year (I know he won a very soft 3m race at the end of last season but was raced exclusively over 16f to 21f until then). I can't have any of those who failed last year so for me the only horse I can back with confidence is Bobs Worth who loves it round Cheltenham and is one of the most genuine horses I can remember, a real gutsy trier who just refuses to be beaten.
Sir Des Champs will not be beaten through lack of stamina at any point this year. If anything I could see him staying on too late against someone who puts in a perfect round of jumping. I hope he and Flemenstar can stay fit and well. Seriously, that would be a clash to savour over 3 miles. The only thing wrong with Sir Des Champs this year is his price. They have overrated his Jewson win, but I do think it is a good thing that he won that race as it means he had enough pace at less than 3 miles, because I will gurantee to anyone here he wil stay 3m 2f without a shadow of a doubt. Watch how much he has left in the tank here after hitting the last fence: [video=youtube;fphD9-g03Ww]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fphD9-g03Ww[/video] [video=youtube;jKHJrE-xro0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKHJrE-xro0&feature=related[/video] I don't know if any of you have ever seen his 2011 Martin Pipe hurdle win but that told you all about his stamina. His such a laid back horse he needs waking up in his races and there is so much left in the tank at the end- the only issue is he is sometimes a little startled when he gets woken up at the final flight and has made errors. If he jumps well he will be bang in the mix in any staying chases this year.
Huge fan of Flemenstar, but i just cannot see him getting 3m 2f. Although i'd love to be proved wrong. Bobsworth is a future Gold Cup winner in my book, whether he does it this season remains to be seen. I think we have, what looks like the most open GC in ages this season, with lots of horses in with a chance of grabbing the prize. While Long Run has bags of talent, his jumping leaves a lot to be desired. The Giant Bolster improved hand over a fist last season and has a live chance.
Toppy, johntuck, I've just watched Sir Des Champs races again. You're right, Toppy, he's got stamina in abundance and there's just so much left in the tank, isn't there? - reminiscent of Big Buck's ? johntuck, you may also be right.6/1 looks short at the moment but it could look big later.
Very likely to be the case. Far too short at present though. I remember Willie Mullins being informed by Matt Chapman that he was the market leader for the GC shortly after his Jewson success and he couldn't quite believe how short he was. Says it all to me.
This is very left field, but I really like the chances of Hidden Cyclone. The trainer (J J Hanlon) is extremely sweet on him, and if Sir Des Champs is 6/1, Hidden Cyclone has finished 1 and a quarter lengths 3rd behind him in a Grade 2 Novice chase in Leopardstown last year. Finishing in second that day was Fists of Fury 1/2 a length in front of Hidden Cyclone, a horse HC had previously beaten 13 lengths on the bridle. 43/1 on Betfair and represents good value.
Nam, A man after my own heart. I had a very speculative punt on Hidden Cyclone last year for this years CGC at 66/1. I think he ran well below par that day when third. However, I feel that if Flemenstar gets home he will struggle. He has an awful lot to find with him on a line through Folidubh. Folidubh was beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Hidden Cyclone and he was giving him 4lbs that day and he was beaten 8 1/2 lengths by Flemenstar whilst receiving 8lbs. I know 2 miles is short for Hidden Cyclone but you could also argue that Flemenstar wants further. Really wide open race this year.
I thought they may try and exploit Hidden Cyclone's handicap mark early in the season. There was talk of him coming over for the Hennessey but I think the owners decided against it. He is still rated at just 142 over fences. After his victory the other week Shark said "He'll go to Gowran next for a winners-of-two race, then it will be the Lexus Chase. Hopefully after that it will be the Hennessy Gold Cup and then on to Cheltenham in March." That Lexus Chase could be some race
Oddy, I wouldn't be surprised if nearer the time, some of them opt for the King George instead of the Lexus.
Any views on Silvianco Conti or Hidden Cyclone's performances over the weekend in relation to the Gold Cup? For me, SC travelled sweetly, with Ruby dictating matters and looks to have progressed from last season nicely.
I would like to get some thoughts on Katenko and his potential as a Gold Cup horse. I must admit I posted a rather cheeky comment after seeing Venetia Williams had entered him for the Blue Riband in the wake of his Sandown victory, but I am eating a slice of humble pie after his barnstorming performance off 147 yesterday at Cheltenham. He gave weight and a beating to 2 very good yardsticks in Fruity O'Rooney and Nadiya De La Vega and, although this was well short of the Gold Cup trip, that victory at Sandown over 3 miles on bottomless ground gives confidence that he will see out the trip. His jumping has been impeccable thus far and he looks a real big, scopey chasing type. It's difficult to know how much he really achieved yesterday (Vino Griego covered exactly the same course & distance, carrying 1lb less, in a time that was 4 seconds quicker, but that is probably largely irrelevant) but if it turns into a real slog on the big day maybe this fella could be another Synchronised. He is 33/1 with several firms (and interestingly, no bigger on Betfair) and as low as 20s with Coral. Thoughts?
I've watched the Lexus a few times again recently and the way i'm reading it leads me to believe that Bryan Cooper thought he had the race won on First Lieutenant so just kept him up to his work as opposed to driving him out. Tidal Bay then ran on from the clouds to grab the win and it looked likely that the second and third didn't really stay. I think that's not the case with First Lieutenant. If you rewatch the finish about 20 times like I have then you might agree that he actually picked up again for pressure but didn't have enough time to go past Tidal Bay. On the line he was definitely starting to come back to the winner. First Lieutenant has absolutely brilliant Cheltenham form having won the Neptune from the Champion Hurdler Rock on Ruby and came second to the excellent Bobs Worth. He had to make the running last year which is not the way to ride him so although i agree Bob's Worth is the better horse I don't agree that the winning distance was reflective of their respective performances on the day. I think the winner of the Gold Cup is going to come from Bob's Worth and First Lieutenant and at 3/1 and 12/1 respectively i'm backing both with the larger stake going each way on First Lieutenant.
My own ramblings on the main contenders for the Gold Cup:- Bob's Worth:- Most likely idea of the winner for me. His form looks bomb proof and his Hennessy win looks better all the time. Two time festival winner, economical jumper and almost guaranteed to relish every yard of the trip leaves you with not much to dislike about his chances. Probable winner for me but wait until the day as the nature of the markets might mean he might be available at 9/2- 5/1 for a brief period of time on Gold Cup day morning. Sir Des Champs:- One who very much divides opinion. His run in the Lexus was either a poor round of jumping by an over-rated horse whose Jewson win was over exaggerated. Alternatively it could be argued to finish so close to winning the race after jumping so badly is a testament to how promising he might be. My own personal point of view is towards the latter. I think his jumping will improve on probable better ground and he'll finish up the hill better than most of the other runners in the field. Whether he finishes as well as Bob's Worth is the big question for me. Long Run The eponymous debate horse. Top class and always seems to run his race. His King George run was almost a microcosm of his whole career for me epitomising everything we know about him. On one hand he showed real courage and guts to get back up and win a race that looked lost at the last. On the other hand he made quite a few jumping errors, looked outpaced at one point and without opening up the same tired old debate, he would be a much better horse with a better jockey on board (my opinion anyway). Place contender but not the winner for me this year. Silviano Conti :- Probably flattered by the way the race worked out in the Betfair Chase. Superb jumper but I can’t help feeling SWC gave the race away by letting Ruby dictate and not letting Long Run exploit his stamina and make it a real test. Bizarre that last year he wasn't thought of as a Cheltenham horse and was seen as more of a flat track horse. His first two runs were impressive (on flat tracks) and then the one race that looked suited to him (King George) was ruled out because all of a sudden he's a Gold Cup horse. Can’t help thinking Paul Nicholls's lack of an obvious Gold Cup alternative is the reason for this change of heart. Not for me. Tidal Bay:- I honestly think Ruby will get his way and he'll line up (and in my opinion win) the World hurdle. That said, this is his last chance to running in the big one and maybe Graham Wylie will insist on Gold Cup. The only downside to that decision is he won’t have Ruby on board and that’s massive. Possible place prospect but that’s all. Flemenstar :- Everything has already been said about Flemenstar. I think he might win the Irish Hennessy and if he does his price will collapse. Such is the nature of hype behind him he may even end up going off close to favouritism for this race on the day. I can certainly see why Tom Segal tipped him up. Personally I think he'll get up the hill okay, I just think other horses will be finishing off better. First Lieutenant :- Course record is fantastic, ran a cracker in the Lexus and will be absolutely cherry ripe for the big day. Downside, he could race Bob's Worth 100 times and probably lose every time. Place prospect but unless Bob's Worth tips up, won’t be winning. Others:- Captain Chris deserves a mention after being so heartbreakingly close to winning the King George. Was never right last season and has looked a much better horse this time round. I thought as exciting as Saturday's race was Cape Tribulation is about as much a Gold Cup horse as I would be with a saddle on my back. The fact that Imperial Commander wasn't able to win makes me put a line through him as well. Last year's runner up The Giant Bolster was so bad it defied belief in the King George and that can’t be his true running but his chance was probably last year. This years race looks much, much stronger. Prediction:- 1) Bob's Worth 2) Sir Des Champs 3) Long Run 4) First Lieutenant I can see Flemenstar travelling with all the wrath of God two out stalking Bob's Worth,Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenant. However as they jump the last he'll give way to the other three's superior stamina. The front two in the market will pull away from a tiring First Lieuteant who'll give way late to a running on Long Run for third place. Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth will have a battle royal to the line with the Henderson horse just edging a close win.
Latest entry stage info: THE BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP Class 1, Grade 1, £550,000 Total Prize Fund. Cheltenham, 3.20pm, Friday, March 15, 2013. Three miles, two and a half furlongs. For 5yo+ which are allotted a rating of 130 or more by the BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races run up to and including March 9 - horses which are not qualified for a rating in GB, IRE or FR may also be entered & such horses may be eligible providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horseâs racecourse performances up to and including March 8 would merit a minimum rating of 130 (the decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final). Weights: 5yo 11st 8lb, 6yo+ 11st 10lb. Allowances: mares 7lb. Entries closed January 8, entries revealed January 9 (40 entries), scratchings deadline February 12 (24 remain), £27,500 supplementary entry stage & six-day confirmation stage March 9. Final 48-hour declaration stage, 10.00am, March 13. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Monday, February 11. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 1/1321-1 BOBS WORTH (IRE) 8 The Not Afraid Partnership Nicky Henderson F13-F111 BOG WARRIOR (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE 411-0511 CAPE TRIBULATION 9 David Abell Malcolm Jefferson U3P4-12 CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs 3122-242 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 8 Martin Boothright Martin Keighley 45041-5 CHINA ROCK (IRE) 10 Michael O'Flynn Mouse Morris IRE 1/1211-4 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 10 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson 23-4232 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE 251U/1P/2 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 12 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies 30/1122/ JESSIES DREAM (IRE) 10 David Johnson Gordon Elliott IRE 04-F0211 KATENKO (FR) 7 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams 2213-21 LONG RUN (FR) 8 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson 13P-U11 MONBEG DUDE (IRE) 8 Oydunow Michael Scudamore 351/51-1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE F1113-04 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 113-3361 QUITO DE LA ROQUE (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Colm Murphy IRE 1241-111 SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) 7 Chris Giles & Potensis Limited Paul Nicholls 1111-241 SIR DES CHAMPS (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE 0P012-5P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 10 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill P11-062 TEAFORTHREE (IRE) 9 T437 Rebecca Curtis 2142-3P2 THE GIANT BOLSTER 8 Simon Hunt David Bridgwater P40P-21P WAYWARD PRINCE 9 John & Hilary Parrott Hilary Parrott 4P/33F0- WHAT A FRIEND 10 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls 11F2-11 WYCK HILL (IRE) 9 SAB Partnership David Bridgwater 24 entries remain after February 12 scratchings deadline THE FOLLOWING 16 HORSES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: BOLD SIR BRIAN (IRE), CALGARY BAY (IRE), FLEMENSTAR (IRE), GRANDS CRUS (FR), HEY BIG SPENDER (IRE), HUNT BALL (IRE), JONCOL (IRE), JUNIOR, KAUTO STONE (FR), KNOCKARA BEAU (IRE), MAIL DE BIEVRE (FR), RIVERSIDE THEATRE, ROBERTO GOLDBACK (IRE), SIZING EUROPE (IRE), TIDAL BAY (IRE), WEAPON'S AMNESTY (IRE)
