I was recently told that someone was making a living on Betfair by laying the three Timeform selections and the two ATR selections at Betfair SP on every single race. I cant believe that this works so I would thought I would get the thoughts of this forum. Todays lays at Kempton as follows; 1.45 Big Sylv, Glastonberry (twice), Climaxfortackle (twice) 2.20 Light From Mars, Haftohaf (twice), Toga Tiger (twice) 2.55 Fluctuate (twice), Noble Silk, Aquilonius (twice) 3.30 Spinning Ridge, Katmai River, West Leke, Welsh Inlet, Michaels Nook 4.05 Gertrude Versed (twice), Easy Life, Too Difficult (twice) 4.35 Valdaw (twice) Glennten (twice), Venetias Dream 5.05 Ryedale Dancer (twice), Sexton House, Jonnie Skull, Whipphound Obviously not fair to judge it on one meeting but an interesting one for the systems analysers among us.
Interesting. ATR/Timeform need to return £36 to a level £1 stake to make £1 profit on 7 races. They need either a lot of winners or a few good priced winners. Could work. Might be even better off laying all my League Comp selections.
Big Sylv wins but against 4 succesful lays @ 11/4 I guess you would be marginlly in front after race one.
I assume you're just taking SP Ron? As this is Betfair they're probably slightly worse off as they will likely be laying at better than SP?
Either way if you looked at this with a long term view..if you can't win laying them you can win backing them. But you would need to prove this over at least 6 -9 months.
Spot on Oddy, you cannot base the returns on industry SP's as you're laying on the exchange. Thus, more often than not the Betfair SP will be a great deal larger. If the system was that simple & good, why would he/she tell anyone?
£1.33 profit on the day based on SP. Winners we would have paid out on (ie only one race where we wouldn't have paid out): Big Sylv 11/4 Toga Tiger 4/1 Welsh Inlet 5/1 Gertrude Versed 4/5 Valdaw 10/11 Whipphound 7/2
Big Sylv 3.92 as opposed to 3.75 Toga Tiger 7.32 as opposed to 5 Welsh Inlet 7 as opposed to 6 Gertrude Versed 1.89 as opposed to 1.8 Valdaw 2.31 as opposed 1.91 Whipphound 6.1 as opposed to 4.5 Betfair SP results in a massive 5.58 pts bigger return to SP putting you miles down on the day! LOSS OF -4.25PTS
Apart from using your own judgement and having the discipline to back it up, I have only seen one betting system in my lifetime which actually works. You may laugh when I say it, but I have tested it half a dozen times over the years (for set periods) and it has always given a profit, albeit a small one- percentage wise. It does not appeal to me personally and, about two weeks ago, I tested it again over a five week period. The results were as follows: 34 runners 20 winners 7 placed 7 unplaced/fell/etc. Longest losing sequence before winner =3 (once only-otherwise only one or two) Two methods- either (A) same stake for each race or (B) double up until you win (latter favoured). For the 34 races above (to a £10.00 stake), method (A) wins £8.00 and method (B) wins £59.00. Although £59.00 may not seem much for laying out about £500.00, it still gave better than 10% return over a five week period- and you would normally not expect such short odds for many of the winners in that period. The system...Quite simply, you back the favourite in any GB Novice Chase- NOT Beginner's Chases nor Novice Handicap Chases. The system is based on the fact that Novice Chases have always given the best return for favourites, even though it may sound laughable to some. Check it out for yourself.
Tam I know of this system and it does pay somewhere on the net its proofed going back over 10 years. Patience is the key for the margin.10% is a fair return.
OK but I wonder how many times they get 6 from 7 with half of them being 6/1 or more. However, I think I wasn't wrong suggesting it would be more profitable laying my League comp selections
I love formula based betting systems! As Im a small time backer to pass time during mundane afternoons in work Ive tried all sorts ie 1st 3 favs from racing post at each meeting, 1st 3 favs written as fav, when the jumping kicks in horse number 1 in 1st 3 races, the fav in the big race on a Saturday. follwing specific jocks or trainers or combined combos, only backing the last backed horse on the all weather and THE CRAZIEST IDEA to watch the morning line!!!!. HOWEVER had a day off on Thursday and the guy (if it was 1 guy) that laid Rubys horse for 20k at 1.01ish and it fell at the last, I question the mentality to risk so much for so little, youd need to do it a fair few times to get your cash back! Oh to have such worries!!!
