Saturday 19th January Daily Thread

Hoping for a red letter day for Mike Murphy tomorrow as I have backed all 4 of his runners tomorrow and have done a small Lucky 15 as well. These write ups are going to be pretty short as there is a strong chance racing may not be on tomorrow.

2.20 Kempton

Red Somerset 14/1

Red Somerset is an extremely admirable veteran who Mike Murphy got a fantastic tune out of last year as he scored on 5 of his 7 starts between January and April and finished runner up on the other two occasions. Granted, 4 of those wins were in Selling and Claiming company but his 2nd last start before a break came when flying at the finish to score in a 7f handicap at Lingfield off a mark of 75 in a race that has worked out well. He reappeared on the back of 7 month break when I thought he ran a lovely 2nd off his current mark of 77 when coming home behind the in form Aquilonius in a race where I thought he ran better than could be expected. His last start came 9 days ago over tomorrow's C+D off a mark of 79 in a steadily run race that was not run to suit and he stayed on very nicely under minimal enough urgings to be beaten only 3.5L. Also from that race was tomorrow's favourite Haftohaf who was only 1.25L in front of Red Somerset in a race where he was up with the pace and the latter has a 2lb swing with that (albeit unexposed) rival. Red Somerset has fallen 2lb back to a mark of 77 and I definitely feel he can be competitive off this mark. He'll need a decent pace to aim at which I think he'll get looking through his rivals and with his regular pilot Kieran O'Neill on board for the in form Mike Murphy I definitely think this 10 year old can run a big race and hopefully land this prize.

2.35 Lingfield

Avonmore Star 8/1

Fascinating debutant for the Murphy yard who is exactly the sort of horse he excels with. Formerly with Richard Hannon, Avonmore Star was a very promising two year old who started off his 3 year old career well with a 2nd off a mark of 94 back in April 2011 but his career has certainly downgraded since then but he certainly hasn't gone completely off the ball as he starts off for his new yard off a mark of 74. Looking at his performances last year, he was a winner at Brighton in May off a 1lb higher mark and he followed that up with an excellent half length beaten 2nd a month later over 6f at Kempton when splitting the progressive pair of Noverre To Go and Peace Seeker off a mark of 78. His last 7 starts for Hannon weren't great but his last start for the yard at the end of September wasn't too bad as he finished a 4.5L beaten 3rd at Epsom off a 1lb higher mark. He starts his career for his new handler on the back of having being picked up for £10,000 off a 111 day break (which is a small concern) and based on his old form he definitely has more than enough ability to be competitive off his current mark. Willy Twiston-Davies is a very interesting booking on his first start for the yard and takes a very handy 5lb off to get him down to an effective mark of 69 from a good draw in stall 2. If fully wound up off the back of a break, I'm confident of a very big showing from Avonmore Star and hopefully he can win on his stable debut.

3.45 Lingfield

Kakatosi 12/1

He's got to bounce back from an average effort the last day when finishing a 2.75L 8th but he wasn't helped by having to go wide the whole way around and I'm also not convinced he goes too well around Wolves either and I think the return to Lingfield and a much better draw in stall 5 will suit him no end. Formerly with Andrew Balding, Kakatosi was at his best a 104 rated horse and was winless for more than 2 years before making a winning stable debut off a mark of 80 at the end of December over tomorrow's C+D when winning a little cosier than the 0.5L margin suggested with the 3rd scoring subsequently. Based on his old form, I still think he definitely has a fair bit of scope off his current mark of 85 and if getting a race run to suit I can see him running a big race.

4.35 Kempton

Valdaw 3/1

Another stable debutant for Mike Murphy who comes here from Tony Carroll's stable in very good form with his last race coming just 21 days ago when he ran a belter to go down by only a fast finishing neck in a 0-55 Conditions race from the progressive Sandy Lane who himself was defied by a head on his only subsequent start off a mark of 63 from the similarly progressive Miss Bunter. He returns to handicapping company today and I certainly think, based on his last effort, that off a mark of 55 he definitely has the capabilities to score in a weak race such as this. Although he doesn't even need to, if the brief change of scenery will improve him a little bit then he should have an excellent chance and I think its telling that connections are running him so quickly after joining the stable. Kieran O'Neill takes the ride and from a great draw in stall 1 if they go a good pace I think he will take an awful lot of beating.


Breaking the Mike Murphy trend for the final selection

3.10 Lingfield

Loyalty 9/1

Come 3.15 tomorrow the 9/1 currently available about Derek Shaw's 6 year old might look absolutely ridiculous as he is still looks very well handicapped on his old form. Loyalty started off 2012 rated 102 but he had an awful, awful time of things all year as he plummeted all the way down to a mark of 78. He finally took advantage of his extremely lenient mark when running out an impressive winner over subsequent winner Lowther two weeks ago over tomorrow's C+D and he followed that up last week with another success off a mark of 83 over 10f at Lingfield when he looked like he was going to be a very comfortable scorer with about a half a furlong to go before his stamina gave way as he clung onto victory by a neck from a couple of fast finishers. That was his first victory over a trip that far and he was definitely helped by being able to dictate a slow pace and he'll definitely relish the return to 1m. I think the handicapper has been very lenient to raise him only 2lb to a mark of 85 and given that he is still 17lb below the level he was 12 months ago he is undoubtedly still well handicapped. He's stepped up again in class tomorrow which should make things harder for him but if he still maintains the ability of a year ago he should prove very difficult to beat. In great form at present and from a good draw in stall 2, if everything falls into place for Derek Shaw's charge then I am confident he can rattle up a quick fire hat-trick.

 

I'm going to put up 3 top rated Appraiseform selections nominated on Twitter early evening last night @Appraiseform.

3.10 Lingfield LOYALTY 9/1 (also one of ROTO's see his write up)

3.45 Lingfield SEEK THE FAIR LAND 6/1 (needs to overcome a poor draw but very rarely out the frame at Lingfield and can take this for the second year in a row)

3.50 Naas POPAFLORA NAP 11/4 improving lightly raced 7 year old can, well weighted, wont be inconvenienced by step down to 2miles and can make all.

Staking plan on Twitter @Appraisform

Non Appraiseform selection CLIMAXFORTACKLE 3/1 1.45 Kempton looks to have a chance over 7f tomorrow both his only wins have come over 8f and lately he has been coming from a hole in the ground over 5f.

Hope we have some racing. GL.

 

Get on UN ATOUT now for the Supreme Novice hurdle as his 16/1 price will be 8/1 or less after today and he might end up going off close to 5/1 on the day as it **looks** like he may be Gigginstowns only Supreme Novice runner as it stands.

 

I've taken a tenner each way on him Toppy. Think he'll win in a hack canter today. Dodging Bullets is my biggest fancy in that though.

 

England have been terrible so far this morning. Poor odi cricket. Very good from India.

 

It's all very boring but I just can't see Aupcharlie or Un Atout losing today. The double pays a shade better than evens. Instead of wasting my money on speculative little punts I've just gone big on that.

Best of luck today chaps.

 

No English NH racing! Crappo!
Never mind. I remember 1963- no English racing at all for 74 days!
Let's hope this ****ty white stuff blows away.

 

Naas and Kempton green light. Lingfield frosted off.

 

Tam......All this climate change talk giving the impression that its changed the weather for good last 10 years or so a load of nonsense then?

Will be keeping an eye on the NH in Ireland today, heard bits and pieces about Un Atout, but never actually seen him run, looking forward to seeing it. Haven't nailed down one fancy in the supreme as yet, but think the hurdle form from the hurdle race that was run in November could prevail again in that Dodging Bullets and River Maigue will be on the premises in my view.

I haven't done so well in the Supreme over the years, Al Ferof being my only winner that I can think of, so don't like to ave a substantial bet in the race.

Today I've had a little dabble on the below

1.45 K - Climaxfortackle
2.20 K - Light From Mars
2.55 K - Aquilonius
3.30 K - Dvinsky

Have a good day all

 

Excellent.

Nass is a rather strong card. Fascinated by the Solwhit/So Young battle later on.

 

I've emptied my account on the double I mentioned earlier but if that comes off I'll be backing three at Kempton.

Aquilonius 6/1
Rogue Reporter 15/2
Venetia's Dream 14/1

 

MEYDAN for me today
3:05 Last Fighter 7/2
3:40 Forevertheoptamist 4/1
4:15 Ahtoug 11/4

 

I like the racing at Kempton today, and I have a few strong views -

1.45 Zing Wing - 14/1 EW

She has a good course and distance record (3 from 6) and her win in September at the course was very taking, she won despite not having a clear run and having met trouble in running. She is up 3lbs on that run, and whilst her two runs after that weren't good, she has had a break and comes back at a time when the yard are flying with ten winners in the last fortnight.

2.20 Red Somerset 14/1 EW

Two good runs after a break, and whilst the form makes him look vulnerable, I think this bigger field and better pace will suit him much better and I think he can stalk the field and pounce on the straight. He has won off this mark in the past and as an older horse he may have needed the two runs to return to peak fitness. I like him a lot today, but it is a good race.

2.55 Noble Silk 7/2

I like the way that this horse wins cosily by short distances, he quickened nicely last time and I think he may need to do the same today. He is pretty straightforward and I think off bottom weight he can come late and pip the field at the post. Luke Morris is riding really well at the minute and I think this one has an obvious chance

 

14:20 Kempton - Haftohaf

(M.Botti's charge could prove to be pretty useful. The son of Haafhd has a decent chance in this heat).

 

Bet365 has the first 3 races at Kempton as the channel 4 4/1+ bonus races however in those races the first three in the market are all under 4/1.... very frustrating!

 

Not likking all these tips for the Kempton 2.20 today as I had a proper bet by my standards on AMGELIC UPSTART last night!

 

In the 1.45 Kempton Amosite ran over 6f LTO but the run behind that he deadheated back at his preferred distance over todays trip with the market leader Glastonberry, He is now better off at the weights and ill be having a dabble at 11/1 EW

 

...nice to see a bit of culture on the forum...