Dick Turpin (9/2) v Canford Cliffs (4/5) So who do you fancy? With Canford Cliffs the difference between the horse who threw the Greenham away and the one who swooped past Rip Van Winkle in the Sussex is massive! He's matured and settles far better now than he did. The Irish Guineas; St James and the Sussex he looked better each time IMO. However Richard Hannon seems to be keen to keep them apart but Canford Cliffs seems to always have the set pattern of races with Dick Turpin having to fit in around! Good for John Manley for insisting he goes to Newbury instead of the Prix D'Ispahan! I just wonder if Richard Hannon's keeness to keep them apart may be a good pointer towards Dick Turpin this weekend? He's that keen to keep him away from Canford Cliffs he was prepared to take on Goldikova instead? Is he protecting Canford Cliffs a little knowing he's not race fit? Has he even trained on? Dick Turpin is race fit after Sandown and looked as good as ever. 9/2 looks a steal (pardon the pun) - even e/w as I can't see him being out of the first two and only see Canford Cliffs being good enough to beat him all being 100% and no hiccups!
Think fitness is the key so I've done Dick Turpin e/w as you suggest, although I do think Canford Cliffs proved to be just that bit better last term despite DT doing him twice. Shaping up to be a cracking renewal.
There is still no definite confirmation that DT will run except the quote you see on racingpost from Hannon. The antepost price is great value because I believe both CC and DT have more or less equal chance of winning. CC the better horse but DT having the benefit of a run. I would lump ew if I know DT is definitely running. I think the price will be around evens for CC and 3/1 for DT on race day.
The first thing that strikes me is what on earth are Jan Vermeer and Twice Over doing in a mile race? I just don't understand it. Henry Cecil has one entry and AOB has just one entry. Can they really hope to win this race with these runners. Jan Vermeer is bred to stay but has disappointed. Surely AOB hasn't suddenly discovered he is better over a mile. And Twice over hasn't run at 8f for 2 years now, his last 14 runs being at 10f. His best form over 8f was 3 years ago when beating Ravens Pass a shd but was then subsequently beaten 2.5l by that horse when 2nd and third to Henrythenavigator. His only other run at 8f since was when beaten by Virtual and Alexandross in this very race 2 years ago, although he did have Paco Boy 1.25l behind in 4th. I can't believe that a horse gets better over shorter distances with age and therefore, it seems very unlikely that either of these two will have the pace to go with either Canford Cliffs or Dick Turpin. It is interesting that Twice Over's other two main engagements are the Prince of Wales Stakes and the Eclipse Stakes so this may be an expensive warm up for one or both of those. So is it a 2 horse race? Well Beacon Lodge got off to a good start this year but at 6yo he can't have improved on last year's form where he was clearly not up to this standard so appears to have no chance if the main two are anywher near their best. Cityscape looks interesting but has already been well beaten by Dick Turping this year. Bin Suroor has just the one entry, Shakespearean, but he's been last, last but one and last but two in last 3 outings so it's difficult to see why he's been entered Premier Loco and Red Jazz look well held. Apart from beating Premier Loco, Balthazaar's Gift has achieved nothing to suggest he has a chance and at 8yo can't be improving. That leaves the most interesting horse in the race, the beautifully bred 4yo Worthadd, winner of 8 of his 10 races. He was beaten by Rio de la Plata in the soft as a 3yo last year but on this ground at 25/1 he could be the surprise packet. Mirco Dmuro has ridden him in all his races and if he comes over for the ride it will be significant. As regards Canford Cliffs and Dick Turpin, it depends how fit Canford Cliffs is. Fitness aside I think Canford Cliffs may just have too much class. But if he isn't 100% maybe it will be Dick Turpin's turn followed by a reversal at Ascot. Probably best to wait for the paddock inspection and the betting market. If both point to the same horse I'll go for whichever one that is but 25/1 the Italian looks interesting ew for me (depending on the jockey).
Anyone who is backing Canford Cliffs can't read a form book, there is barely anything between Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs, so 10/11 and 9/2 is far to big a price difference!* CC and DT have raced 3 times and DT has come out on top on 2 of those occasions, both times on a straight course! CC beat DT on a round course, and on very firm ground, and on closer inspection CC got the run of the race that day, DT was travelling wide on the turns, were as CC was travelling at the back of the field, on the rails, so you could argue DT ran a good bit further!* CC has won more G1s, but he was campaigned far more favourably, than DT who was sent to tougher races in France, and his trip was messed around with, to keep him away from CC! I still believe DT would have won the Irish Guineas and the Sussex stakes just as easily ad CC did! So I'm glad John Manley has finally decided to pull rank with Richard Hannon, and I realy hope DT dishes out a beating to CC* I think 9/2 is tremendous value and il be having a good punt on DT come saturday!* I'd agree with Ron totally that Worthadd has slipped under the radar here and should be alot shorter than 33/1, Red Jazz is the other at a price that could give the 2 Hannon milers a run for there money, afterall he was only 1/2 a lengh off winning the QE2, and won well in the G2 7f race on Champions day, beating the likes of Delegator!*
Paddys the only bookie offering 9/2 previously has cut the price to 4/1. Not surprising really as many were lumping on the horse.
Talking of Delegator, didn't he run a cracker today considering Simon Crispin? said he was more likely to get 4th than first. What a sprint prospect he must be over a stiff 6f.
Great minds think alike eh Ron! I've just posted an article about how impressed I was with Delegator today, sprinting could be the making of him
It was interesting how Manley said the other day that he considered going for the Prix D'ispahan but decided against it as DT would have to face Goldikova. Obviously considers CC to be the easier option,which is a fair one. But as i stated the other day on 606, 9-2 if it is still available is a knocking bet against a horse that we have no idea whether he has trained on from 3-4.
DB.....It's also interesting that Hannon wanted to send DT to France and have CC run in the Lockinge, surely if CC is this great horse that RH claims him to be then they would be sending him to France to take on Goldikova, and have DT run in the Lockinge, clearly they don't rate CC highly enough to risk his over inflated reputation against Goldikova Anyone reckon were going to see another "bad scope" from CC before the Queen Anne, if Goldikova's still entered! I can't wait til Frankel's unleashed on the older horse, I realy can't, as I know RH will be doing everything in his power to keep CC away from him!
RH won't have to do anything Shergar. He won't get near him anyway. Unless they are drawn next to each other.
KS, i really think that he wants to CC to retain a padded record till the end of the season as he did last year. But I do think that RH does rate CC very highly, i believe that he doesnt want to face a world class horse in case he is proven wrong about CC,and the bubble bursts.Hence why he kept unleashing Paco Boy to race against Goldy and not CC.Which was ludicrous really as it was obvious that PB was never going to beat her in a month of sundays and he knew this. And You have to question why he doesnt want to send CC to France.After all its a bit silly having your 2 star horses racing in the same race when there is an equally respectable race in France to send one to.
He's already laid the plan saying both CC and DT could step up in trip later in the season. CC has the Queen Anne as a target - if DT beats him this week JM may insist on going for that too and taking Goldikova on if she travels over. Personally I ignore the Greenham & 2000 Guineas because you could see CC mature and get better with each race and for me both at 100% I'd fancy CC over DT every time. When Frankel is set on them I think then we might see the step up in trip come then! Can't see any of them living with him unless they change the rules and he has to concede the weight! Be funny if Henry Cecil stepped him up at the same time too though - you can't really call running scared a bad scope then!
I'm not convinced that either would apreciate a step up in trip! DT although he pulled hard early in the International, so there were excuses, still looks like more of a miler! CC is an even more doubtful stayer, and he has to be held up, just to get a mile, nevermind 10 furlongs! AOB apears to hold all the aces in the 10f division with So You Think and Cape Blanco, and I'd fancy either of those against the Hannon pair
Canford Cliffs would eat either of these two King. Trust me. Overhyped O'Brien horses, now if I got a pound every time I said that
Beefy Beefy, them is brave words indeed. Canford Cliffs is a very talented animal, but so too is So You Think. Of course we're both biased toward our own home grown product, so I'm going out on a limb, as you did. So You Think will hand Canford Cliffs one hell of a flogging. He'll make poor old Canford look like a cart horse.
CC is a good horse and anyone who lumped on DT today needed their head testing, far too risky and just not his race this year.
Cyc to susbstaniate my belief that Canford would eat So You Think is primarily based that, thus far, SYT has only beat trees the one time he ran here. As for his Australian form, well you may as well ask me to translate the Bible into Dutch to understand how that weighs up! Perhaps my opinion will change after his next race against meaningful opposition on these shores but until then I'll have to keep him in my bulging filing cabinet of 'horses overhyped by the master of spin O'Brien'!
As I imply I am in the dark with regards to his talents, he may well be! But I do know that the Hannons rate Canford Cliffs as the best they have trained, Richard Hughes as the best he's ridden. On the other hand O'Brien waxes lyrical about all his 'pigeon catchers' he has in Ballydoyle so I shall wait and see, which is why I have to stick to my original belief. I hope O'Brien does not get his hands on your other favourite that flying filly Black Cavier, goodness knows what he would compare her to
