12.40 Warwick Thunder Sheik 10/1 Going against Stick here but I'm siding with the top weight in the shape of Fergal O'Brien's 5 year old Thunder Sheik who has a first time tongue tie and cheekpieces applied and who I certainly think is better than his current mark of 110. Thunder Sheik made his debut in a Grade 2 Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in November 2011 where I thought he shaped very well for a long way behind some top class rivals before a combination of being outclassed and probably a little tired to finish a well beaten 8th of 9 but it certainly was a very encouraging effort in such a hot event on his racecourse debut. Trawling back through O'Brien's blog, he stated prior to his debut that "we think an awful lot of him" which is hardly surprising given the level he was pitched in at and it was a very nice introduction over hurdles. Thunder Sheik made his 2nd start start in a Juvenile Hurdle at Newbury over an extended 2m a month later and although he finished a well beaten 5th he again showed up well for a long way before blowing up after 3 out. That race was a pretty good event with the front two Ardlui and Tango Du Juilley both pretty talented animals. Thunder Sheik took a 3 month break before his 3 start when he certainly fulfilled a bit of the promise shown in his first two starts when finishing a staying on 5L beaten 4th in a 2m Juvenile Hurdle. After sitting prominent under Sam Twiston-Davies, Thunder Sheik was outpaced after 3 out before staying on very nicely where he was never closer than at the finish and it was a big step in the right direction with regards to him looking more like a finished article. That Juvenile hurdle does not look too bad a race with the 3 in front of him now rated 117, 119 and 133 (was a hurdling debutant) and it certainly was a step in the right direction. A few weeks later Thunder Sheik made his handicap debut off a mark of 112 in a Class 2 handicap where he never really went a yard so I'm putting a line through that effort. After his handicap debut, Thunder Sheik took a 7 month break to presumably allow him to develop both physically and mentally and he shaped extremely nicely on his seasonal reappearance at Towcester in November over 2m5f off his current mark of 110. Held up in the rear of the field under Paddy Brennan, Thunder Sheik just about hit the front turning into the home straight still on the bridle but he didn't find much off the bridle as he plugged on at the one pace to finish a 9L beaten 5th. I don't know if it was he didn't stay the trip, got tired on his first start of the season or perhaps even had a bit of a wind issue but he certainly travelled like the best handicapped horse in the race and I think he'll come on an awful lot for that race. That race has worked out pretty solidly with most of the horses in front of him performing very admirably off the same or higher marks and it was another big step in the right direction. Tomorrow Thunder Sheik is stepped back to the minimum trip for his 3rd start in a handicap and he will get first time cheekpieces and a tongue tie applied. I think the tonque tie could significantly improve him as he has shaped on a couple of occasions that he may have a win issue whilst I feel the cheekpieces will help him focus which I also think is an underlying issue. Fergal O'Brien has said he has been disappointing to date and I think he is one of those horses that has needed quite a bit of time to fully grow physically and mentally and he certainly shaped the last day like he had developed in both departments. In his latest blog, his trainer has stated "Thunder Sheik thinks he is jack the lad and has a lot more ability than he has been showing" which certainly suggests that connections feel he is quite a bit better than his current mark if putting everything together, which I agree with. Fergal O'Brien's landlord Timmy Murphy takes the ride and Thunder Sheik seems exactly the sort of horse he will excel with by giving him a patient ride. Although the step back to 2m may be a little on the sharp side, this 17 runner race should be run at good pace which should be fine for him. I am a slight bit concerned about the soft ground but I'm hoping that he will be fine on it. If the implementation of first time headgear and a tongue tie work the oracle, I'm confident of a big run from Fergal O'Brien's unexposed 5 year old which will hopefully allow him to land what essentially is a pretty poor but competitive contest.
3.15 Kempton Kingsmere 9/1 Henry Daly's 8 year old could easily have won his first 5 starts over fences barring two late tumbles and a shuddering mistake and after finding the Paddy Power Chase at Cheltenham back in November in bottomless ground too tough off his current mark of 137 I'm confident that he's on a good mark and in a much easier contest on better ground I'm quietly confident that he could prove very difficult to beat. A decent enough hurdler, this son of King's Theatre seems to be quite a bit better over fences and I think he would have made a winning debut over fences barring a final flight fall at Stratford back in April. Over just shy of 3m, Kingsmere was in a slight lead after jumping well before being steadied going into the last by Andrew Tinkler before he met it all wrong and blundered to the ground. At the very least, he would have finished a very narrowly beaten 3rd against a pair of rivals who had already had 4 starts each over fences in a race that looks like very strong form with the winner Mr Mole (carrying a 7lb penalty) now rated 132 over fences and the narrowly beaten 2nd Emmaslegend bolting in by 19L in a Listed Handicap off a mark of 132 subsequently. A month later he was dropped back to 2m4f for his 2nd start over fences and barring two shuddering mistakes I am sure he would have scored in very impressive fashion but he had to settle for a 1L defeat in the 6 runner Novice Contest. Under Richard Johnson, Kingsmere was tracking the leaders but he was travelling and jumping so well that after the 9th flight he had jumped to the lead before making an awful error at the next flight as he ploughed himself into the 10th flight which saw him immediately drop back to 3rd and it most definitely would have knocked the wind out of his sails. With Johnson being the experienced and excellent pilot that he is, Kingsmere was given time to recover from his mistake and in the long run in between the final two flights Johnson made up more than 5L on his mount and he was about 1L up going over the last which, once again, was a terrible blunder and he could not recover in time as he went down fighting by a length in second. The form of that race looks very solid with the winner Domtaline, who was conceding 7lb to Kingsmere, franking the form very strongly subsequently which I will go into more details later. A couple of weeks later at the start of May 2012 Kingsmere landed his first chase on his 3rd start over the larger obstacles when scoring very comfortably in a really poor Beginners Chase but he made it successive victories under a penalty for tomorrow's jockey Jake Greenhall in extremely impressive style as he conceded all the finishers 7lb over 2m7f at Stratford last July. Kingsmere tracked the leaders until the 5th flight before opening up a clear advantage on the field and he never saw another rival as he came home a heavily eased 11L winner but in truth that could have been 50L if he was fully extended. He beat a good yardstick in Thelobstercatcher into 3rd that day who was narrowly beaten in a handicap off a mark of 119 in his previous start and given that Kingsmere gave him 7lb and trounced him it was a rather impressive effort. That was his final start for 108 days as he took the rest of the summer off before he reappeared towards the end of October in a hot Novice Chase under a double penalty at Cheltenham over 2m4f where I think he would have, at the very least, gone extremely close to winning before falling two out. Again under Jake Greenhall and under joint top weight, Kingsmere's jumping throughout the contest was generally very good and he was still travelling very well as he took a shuddering fall at the 2nd last flight and I'm pretty confident that Kingsmere would have won if he had jumped the final two flights well. That was a bit of a cat and mouse contest that turned into a little bit of a sprint which probably tainted the form a little bit but Domtaline, who was 7lb worse off with Kingsmere from his earlier victory over Henry Daly's charge, has run two really good races subsequently when narrowly beaten by Kumbeshwar off level weights before going down narrowly to the talented Williams Wishes in a handicap off a mark of 139 after going down by a short head in that Cheltenham contest. Kingsmere's final start came 6 weeks ago in the grueling Paddy Power Chase at Cheltenham in torrid conditions on his handicap debut off his current mark of 137 in a race where only 1/3rd of the field finished and despite being pulled up I thought Kingsmere ran a pretty promising race. Under Sam Twiston-Davies, Kingsmere travelled well throughout the contest and was still travelling well in the leading group at about 4 out but he seemed a very tired animal after that as he couldn't pick up in the testing conditions and his young jockey did the sensible thing like so many others by pulling up his mount before the 2nd last. It takes a very good horse to land the Paddy Power Chase which is evident given that Long Run could only finish 3rd in the race the season he won the Gold Cup so being outclassed off a mark of 137 isn't much of a concern for me. Tomorrow Kingsmere should find things an awful lot easier in this Class 2 contest over 3m as he is the 2nd highest rated horse in the field and based on his chasing exploits to date I certainly think he has more than enough ability to win off his current mark if eradicating the costly mistakes prevalent throughout his brief chasing career to date. Jake Greenhall, who seems to get on very well with this 8 year old, takes the ride again and he takes off a very handy 3lb off to alleviate some of the big weight under his back. Although if the rain does change the going to soft which he is unproven on, I won't be gravely concerned but will certainly be hoping that the going doesn't get too testing. With Henry Daly in good form, I'm confident of a really big showing from his 8 year old Kingsmere and if he can jump around and avoid making mistakes then I think he'll take an awful lot of beating off a mark of 137.
2.25 Warwick De La Bech 6/1 This looks a fascinating contest with some pretty decent chasers returning to hurdles off better marks with bigger targets later in the season with current favourite The Package perhaps the most intriguing but I couldn't be backing him with stolen money and think he is a crazy price being as short 3/1. Fair enough, he races off a 13lb lower mark then when seen running a very good 4th in the Hennessey but this is clearly an afterthought as opposed to a planned season target and given that this will be his first start over the smaller obstacles since May 2009 I will be very, very surprised if he wins and think he has a better chance of being pulled up. Is it impossible that he cant win? Of course not but I will personally be very surprised if he can and I'll probably be place laying him in the morning. Now to the horse I like which is Philip Hobbs's unexposed 6 year old De La Bech who has flourished now switched to front running tactics by landing his last 2 starts, the latest on handicap debut off a 7lb lower mark at Ascot last month by a little over a length from the reopposing Okafranca (2lb worse off) who was in excellent form in landing his last two starts prior to finishing runner up to Hobbs's charge. The form of that race is untested but given Okafranca's prior form I'd be very surprised if it didn't work out pretty well and I think De La Bech was value for more than his 1.25L winning margin suggests. Although this race is significantly tougher than his latest assignment, De La Bech is open to considerable improvement with only 4 starts over hurdles and 5 starts under Rules to his name and I'd be very, very surprised if his current mark of 125 proves beyond him. Moreover, he really seemed to relish his first try over 3m under Rules (Point winner over the distance) and on just his 2nd handicap start he could easily be quite a bit ahead of the handicapper. In addition, De La Bech's current rating of 125 definitely won't get him into the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival and he will need to increase his handicap rating quite close to a stone before March and there is no doubt in my mind that connections see tomorrow as the perfect opportunity to at least accomplish some of that task. Tom O'Brien, who was on board for his impressive Novice Hurdle success two starts back, takes over in the saddle again as I presume Richard Johnson is suspended and with conditions posing no issue and his trainer in good form I'm very confident of a massive showing from this 6 year old and I think he'll take an awful lot of stopping in his hat trick bid.
Quite like the look of the 3 Mark Johnston runners at Lingfield today but in particular STAFFHOSS in the 14.50. After a couple of near misses I think today is the day that he will lead all the way from stall 1 in typical Johnston fashion. Will reverse the form with Club House who beat him last time. Around 5/2.
I don't think Pete The Feat (3.35 Warwick) has stopped winning yet, despite having gone up 40lbs since the start of the season. The handicapper will catch up eventually, but he galloped them into the ground at Newbury last time on Heavy, and the 9lbs he went up for that comfortable win mightn't be enough to stop him. The 4/1 looks fair. Another obvious one, but I can't see Black Thunder being out of the first 4 in the Lanzarote at Kempton, which makes him a bet to nothing at 6/1.
Does anyone know why Barry Geraghty isn't riding Forgotten Voice in the last at Kempton? I know they are claiming 5 but if the horse is entered for the betfair hurdle it would have to win this surely, and Barry would want to ride it?
Morning chaps I'm with ROTO on De La Bech's chances, although I think the odds are a tad skinny for such a competitive event. Other selections as per league comp, with special mention for Oscara Dara, who I think will prove best of the Hendo pair, and better than the Nicholls runner too. I'll also be having my usual suicide punt on Hang On Julio - it'd be rude not too
Going to add a third suggestion alongside Stick and ROTO with HARRIS GARDEN 12/1 in Warwick opener at 12:40. He showed promise in all novice hurdle events, can make the running, and for my money might have this race suit tactically by pressing on from the front and seeing if those who travel well do find anything off the bridle this time. This novice handicap event sees him on much better terms and he should be much more competitive today than in more open company novice hurdles.
In the opener at Kempton I fancy Deia Sunrise to translate his smart flat form to hurdles. Bit of value against the very short favourite
2.40 Oscara Dara - Barry Geraghty chose him over the top weight (connections wanted him on the top weight) and I think he is a horse who has a very good engine and the trip looks absolutely perfect for him. He wasn't the fastest over his fences on chase debut so a return to hurdles could be perfect for him. I also think that his novice form is very useful and it is normally a lightly raced horse who improves for the trip that wins the Ladbroke. 3.35 Restless Harry - A horse I think is well handicapped and should be improved for winning last time out. If they get into a good rhythm from the front I can't see anything passing him. He to me is the classiest horse in the field and I think the race is set up perfectly for him. Then throw a double with the pair and a go at the S6 and it could be a great day. Then the disappointment of football to follow!
2 for me today guys. ARALDUR paid for my day at Sandown LTO. The form's working out nicely, he travelled so well that day, he gets the ground, he's gutsy and he is one of the biggest thoroughbreds I ever seen. If that's not a reason for backing him I don't know what is . 14/1 represents e/w value. If you're feeling gutsy play the combo forecast Oscar Dara, Black Thunder & Araldur but I'm sticking to the single. Strongly run race should suit, we want this guy to have plenty of cover. BRADLEY in the 3.35 at Warwick. 7s is too big, upped in trip should bring about improvement. Good luck all, looking forward to it today, first time I get to see the new C4 format
Barry - Nicky has two declared for the William Hill Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle over two miles five and I left it to him to decide which I rode out of top weight Bear’s Affair and OSCARA DARA (2.40)
