1.50 Doncaster tomorrow is short on runners but I have a strong fancy for the outsider BEYEH 10-1. Tweedledrum form is working out exceptionally well and the handicapper has in my view dropped this mare to a very handy mark indeed. I can see it going off at half its current price and am on nice and early. She will love the conditions and looks sure to run well. No putting it in the weekly comp now fels LOL LOL
Beyeh quickly into 3s Stick but I think Buxom is going to be incredibly difficult to beat. She should have won LTO in my opinion but was given a poor ride by Tom O'Brien as she went down by a short head. The winner that day Queen's Grove has won her only 2 starts very impressively including off 15lb higher mark and is now rated 21lb higher than for that win. In the face of that, Buxom's 6lb rise looks very manageable and she should also appreciate the extra distance. Hopefully one of the two wins!
Buxom will be a tough nut to crack ROTO but I think this horse has been dropped to a really soft mark by the handicapper. The Tweedledrum form is top notch and I think she will go really well. Good luck with yours! Have you looked at the 3.25 at all. I am tracking the price of CROPLEY as I think he may have been given a lenient mark too, the yard love a punt so I am keeping a close eye, wondered if you had an opinion.
Firebird Flyer 7/2 2.25 Donny. Won as he liked the other day. Runs again quickly so avoids a rise in the weights. The heavy ground may have taken the bite out of this chap but that's my only worry. If he handles the quick reappearance I think he'll win.
Peter Casey on Flemenstar's future "Personally I think the Ryanair is a non-entity of a race, and I wouldn't think after that he's a Gold Cup horse. You need a two-and a-half miler for the Queen Mother and I think that's the race for him." (7 mins ago) Looks like it will be Sprinter Sacre vs Flemenstar at the festival!
2.10 Newbury tomorrow, my understanding is the Longsdon team fancy REY NACARADO to turn over their other runner, the fav Pete The Feat. Obviously this is not in the public domain!
One for me at Doncaster 2.55 CATEGORICAL 12/1 has run stinkers so far this season but is 8lb below last winning mark and has been supported in the markert.
Can't get away from Taquin Du Seuilin the 2.45 tomorrow, travelled exceptionally well last time and quickened up well to win by a very comfortable 6 lengths. Also take a tentative shot on Storm Survivor in the 2.25, This horse never took to chasing and is interesting back over hurdles tomorrow with the very talented Maurice Linehan taking off 7 I think this horse could go very close at a big price.
Have to agree RV, whilst i am a huge Flemenstar fan i think Sprinter Sacre is an absolute beast and could be one of the best we see.
2.45 Newbury: CLONDAW KAEMPFER 7/4 (NAP) Coped with he drop to 2m last time but 2 and a half miles on a flatter track like Newbury will be bang up his street having won impressively over 2 and a half at Aintree. I think the stamina reserves will kick in and he can see off the Jonjo/McCoy horse and cemen its place in the market for the Cheltenham novice hurdles. 1.15 Doncaster: PERE BLANC- Bought for £100,000 having shown real progression under David Arbuthnot. I remember Stick tipping this up as a handicap plot and he scooted up by about 20 lengths or something. Has obviously been bought with chasing in mind and can score on chase debut if schooling has gone well.
Great memory TC, won three on the spin for US. I think before his first win I said he had a stone in hand of the handicapper. Long absence to overcome but lovely animal.
I have found two good bets so far tomorrow and may play further when having a longer look at a couple of races in the morning. Doncaster 2.25 Barafundle 7-2 This horse ran very well in fourth behind Trusten Times after a twenty month absence. There were some decent horses behind him that day and I expect him to strip fitter and put up a very good show tomorrow. Newbury 1.35 Colour Squadron 2-1 I feel this price could be very good value for a horse that I felt never really acheived his full potential over hurdles. I do know there is a risk in backing a hurdler that fell twice last year on his chase debut but this horse has a touch of class and travels beautifully and if he stands up I cannot see anything matching his pace. I feel he will put up a peformance that will take the eye tomorrow and be aimed at significantly better things.
fresh from returning from 2 days at Leppers and nice to see the old boy Tidal get up on the line. However no real Cheltenham prospects tho. Most impressive horse I felt was Jezki (unsure of spelling) in the novice hurdle yesterday - impressive turn of foot. Seen Sizing Europe and he has definitely slown up possibly due to age and it would not surprise me if he runs in the Ryan Air as he is surely too slow now to compete with the likes of Sprinter Sacre. Good fun today tho and I am slightly up due to some decent place money in some races and of course an emotional bet on good oul Tidal. Weather was actually pretty good too for this time of the year, and I felt I had too many layers of clothes on - normaly bloody freezing at that meet. I am nearly finished looking at the cards for tomorrow and will post up my selections shortly.
DONCASTER 14:55 Safran De Cotte @ 11/2 (GP) Beat Godsmejudge who won a decent Novices Chase recently and has trip and ground to suit. NEWBURY 15:15 Bouggler @ 14/1 (GP) Backed this horse a few times getting some decent place money over the years. If anywhere near its best should have a right good chance of winning this. Also major positive is that Emma Lavelle has booked Barry Gerraghty for the ride NEWBURY 14:10 Maringo Bay @ 13/2 (GP) Finds it hard to win but relatively unexposed. Has some decent past hurdles form including beating Invictus and Tea for Three. Decent run against the useful Mountainieous last time out and could be reasonably well handicapped NEWBURY 12:30 Venetian Lad @ 9/1 (GP) Seemingly a Fontwell specialist and has risen quite a few pounds for earlier wins. However will like ground conditions and may have a chance of turning the form around with the fav in this 3lb better off. LEOPARDSTOWN 13:30 Star Neuville @ 12/1 (GP) “The Shark” has been a little quiet this Leopardstown but usually has one or two lined up for this. There are signs that some of his horses are running better and this horse was a very good bumper horse and has some decent hurdles form. It’s chase debut was not too bad either and with some improvement on that he should go close this year. Trainer won this race last year with a horse of a similar profile (Hidden Cyclone) LEOPARDSTOWN 15:05 Beachdale Lad @ 20/1 (GP) With Paddy Powers and others doing 5 places in this I went for one which I think is way overpriced – will probably back one or two others. Trainer has an excellent record in these sort of handicaps, won this race last year and is currently in good form. This horse also won it’s only race in a 20+ runner field which was a maiden in which quite a few behind subsequently won or went close. Also younger horses 4, 5 y/o’s carrying below 11 stone tend to do well in this Did the above in a small stakes each way Lucky 63 and singles Good Luck to all
3.30 Kelso Stopped Out 14/1 Although Stopped Out has to bounce back from a couple of very poor efforts, I'm hoping that the change of scenery, application of first time cheekpieces, return to his favourite venue and the drop back into a Class 4 handicap for only the 2nd time in his career and first since 2010 will work the oracle and he bounces back to score his first success since April 2011 on his stable debut for Philip Kirby. Formerly with Kate Walton, this 7 year old has seen a fair bit of racing in his time with 32 career starts to date and he's proved a good servant for connections winning 5 times. This now 120 rated grey gelding's career high performance came over an extended 2m6f at the track on what was his last success 20 months ago off a mark of 123 but he has put in some good performances since then. At the end of last year he began a chasing career where he put up some fine efforts in defeat including when running the at his peak 138 rated chaser Carrickboy to within 3.5L as he finished runner up on all 4 of his completed outings over the larger obstacles. That career seemed short lived as he returned to hurdles with an under par performance back in March but he put in a really good performance off a mark of 129 returned to his favourite venue in May when finishing a 6L beaten 5th as he faded from the runners up spot in the run in over the extended 2m6f trip on his 4th last start. His 3 runs since then have been disappointing but he has fallen 8lb in the handicap to a mark of 120 pretty quickly but I'm hopeful the move to Philip Kirby's yard will have revitalised him. He's dropped back to 2m2f tomorrow and is 1-1 over the C+D and given that the very testing conditions tomorrow will sap a lot of energy I think the fact that he stays further is a big positive. In addition to the change of scenery, first time cheekpieces are also applied in an attempt to revitalise him and if they do the trick I'm confident of a very bold front running performance from this admirable and tough grey. Philip Kirby is amongst the winners at present and although he's only saddled 1 winner from his 16 runners at the track I think its well worth noting that Stopped Out's owners The Well Oiled Partnership love to have a winner at the track and have an excellent 5-10 record at Kelso. Although he'll have to shoulder a welter burden of 11-12 tomorrow, he has won under top weight before and this soft ground winner shouldn't have too much issue in these very testing conditions. Richie McGrath, who has ridden him for 28 of his 32 career starts, is on board tomorrow and the pair clearly get on well together. This is the easiest race he's contested in a long, long time and its the lowest mark he has been able to compete off since November 2010. At 7 years old he's certainly not over the hill by any means and if revitalised I'm confident he can improve his already impressive record at Kelso in handicaps of 1-1-6-1-5 and land this race on his stable debut.
Great tipping yesterday lads. Rolecarr Kelso 2.30 Has won of 120 which it is on today - claimer takes another 7lb off. 2 chase wins 3m 1f on soft. Roscastle Kelso 3.00 C&D on Hvy. Pistol Newb 1.00 battled all the way lto. Bakbenscher - Newb 3.15 4 -4 on hvy Not going to get rich on these but will do a wee yankee. Also combining Stopped Out, Rey Nacardo, Firebird Flyer & Beyeh in a Yankee as selected by fellow posters.
Good morning Gentlemen! Playing sticks 2 and rotos kelso tip singles doubles and a greedy wee treble! Stick outstanding tip yesterday thank you sir Sadly I missed Piscean whilst trying to find your other tip which actually ran earlier! im a silly boy!!!
