Does anyone make a habit of going to this day's racing. Is it always packed or was it just last year because of Kauto Star? I can't be dealing with being jammed in like sardines a la Cheltenham. I'll just go on the 27th. Help/info appreciated
More to the point, Sir Des Champs not running. How he got so short in the betting last night is anyones guess. ****ing Mullins.
And now Finians Rainbow out due to soft ground. Hendeo now represented just by Long Run and Riverside Theatre. This is looking more and more like Long Run's to throw away.
Still very interested in Grands Crus for this. He was electric over course & distance 12 months ago. 10/1 is a very nice price.
McCoy to ride THe Giant Bolster I wont be backing him (my doe is on Long Run) but could be interesting!
Last Year [video=youtube;pHl9VqR3gww]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=pHl9VqR3gww[/video] You would have to expect Long Run to win if he runs like that again. But can he?
In that timeform view they are giving their prediction on a strong pace. Now i'm not thinking it will be slow, but i can't see them going hell for leather, given the ground.
With the defection of SDC I have today backed For Non Stop and Junior, both e/w with more on FNS. I will disappointed if one of them doesn't snag a place, I really think this market is priced totally wrong. Half the field won't stay and last seasons King George and Gold Cup form is overrated.
FNS is not a bad shout but Junior (who I like very much) I dont think has much more to offer than his current mark and I will be very suprised if it is good enough to run in to the placings with that!
It's very interesting that Junior has been supplemented and he will only need to finish fourth or better to get the money back which Pipe needed to pay. That could be an interesting Grand National Trial for him. As for the rest, I would love to see The Giant Bolster win, but I think he will hate the ground. And the fact McCoy is on it, puts me off too. McCoy has been giving up far too early on horses recently, and the same will apply probably to The Giant Bolster. I am not Keen on Long Run, but Riverside Theatre has won on his first run for the last 4 seasons and must go close providing the ground doesn't hinder him too.
Long Run has always needed his 1st run to bring him on for the season, yes on paper he should have won at haydock but that would have blown the cobwebs away look at the season he won the KG & GC 3rd in the PP GC (grade 3) then boom blew them away in the King George. Shame Barry cant be on board, as I would have been even more confident and he would no way be 2/1. But he has never been a good 1st time out horse always needed it, even last year he was very poor in the betfair chase but he was 10x better in the KG it was only the King was 100% that day and even in the Gold Cup he should have looked like he was going to win coming over the 2nd last. He will have no problem with ground as he will stay all day long!
With the defection of Sir Des Champs, I nominate GRANDS CRUS 8/1 as my selection in the Boxing Day feature. 'Pulled up' is not a true reflection of the way he ran in the Paddy Power. It was very testing and all horses who were held up struggled that day. Grands Crus travelled very well into contention and as they were freewheeling down the hill it looked like he would go very close indeed. I do not for a minute think Cheltenham is his track for staying chases- he got away with the stamina side of things in a World Hurdle but they dont really go a mental clip in that race so he could get away with it. So many good horses struggle in the Paddy Power race- remember LONG RUN himself could not win the Paddy Power yet hosed up in the King George! I was worried about the wind op taking a run to get him right but the Pipe team seem really bullish about him and they made it clear that if he was not 100% and showing the right signs, he would not run. I have to believe what they say there because they have always been sensible with the horse, no more so than when they resisted the temptation of a Gold Cup last year. As far as I can see, only Grands Crus and Cue Card are the horses who would be totally happy going from the front in this race, and Grands Crus is the better jumper. I take Grands Crus to take the lead a mile from home and run the finish out of them all with Long Runs untidy style ultimately costing him again. He will stay better than Cue Card, who I love to bits but he doesn't look quite ready for a 3m soft ground race just yet. He will get the trip sooner rather than later though. The real high class stayers are absent and I think Grands Crus might just be able to take the race by the scruff of the neck- are For Non Stop, Giant Bolster, Captain Chris, and Cue Card honestly the types to stay on past an on song Grands Crus? A flat track at Kempton suits horses with natural speed and exuberance and if he takes up the running he may well go very close. It is a risk we take but Pipe will have him ready.
The race which threatened to be a damp squib in its first renewal PK (Post Kauto) has actually turned into a fascinating contest because of the amount of uncertainty around the entire field. Long Run really ought to win based on his form over the last 3 years but, since bounding up the Cheltenham hill to take the 2011 Gold Cup he has won just once, in the Grade 2 Denman chase at Newbury. His jumping remains sketchy and opinion is divided as to whether this is the horse's natural trait, or whether his amateur jockey is not getting him into a jumping rhythm. I backed him at Haydock in the Betfair and swore I will never back him again, he has disappointed too many times. He may well take this, but 7/4 makes no appeal whatsoever. Whatever you think of Cue Card, there is no doubt that his form stands up to the closest scrutiny. He came 4th in one of the hottest renewals of the Supreme Novices Hurdle for years, and as a novice chaser found only the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Bobs Worth too good. As a second season chaser he opened his account with a victory full of promise in the Haldon Gold Cup, although the form of his victory is open to interpretation, and some judges have, I feel, got a little carried away with that. The big question is whether he stays the trip. If he does he will be thereabouts and he wouldn't be winning a Grade 1 out of turn. Riverside Theatre represents powerful connections and ran the race of his life to take the Ryanair at the festival. 2nd to Long Run in this 2 years ago, he is capable of a very bold showing here. He goes will fresh, will love the track and trip, and there is every chance that he has improved enough (or Long Run regressed enough) to turn the tables on his stablemate. They don't come more powerful than Kauto Stone's connections and there will be plenty of sentimental money for him from Kauto Star fans. He took his first Grade 1 over at Down Royal in a very professional manner but the bare form of that race leaves him with a fair bit to find to take this. Toppy has covered Grands Crus above and I agree he has an outstanding chance. I don't think we will have anything like heavy ground and he clearly goes well at the track as we saw in the Feltham last year. If the wind op has doen the trick he is a major player and there is still some value in his price. Captain Chris, The Giant Bolster, Junior, Champion Court and For Non Stop really oughtn't be good enough to take this and I will be surprised if they are involved in the finish, although The Giant Bolster continues to run well without winning and could sneak a place. In summary, I think the value of the race is with Grands Crus but I'm still undecided as to whether it is a race to be betting on. I'll wait till the day and see how I feel.
Henderson forecast Long Run beats Riverside Theatre and River Maigue wins the first, you've been told
I am more than prepared to hold my hands up if I am wrong, but here is how I read Long Run's form since winning the Gold Cup: He finished behind a declining Kauto Star at Haydock in the Charlie Hall. Undoubtedly still a good horse I think at this point, but certainly not the 180-rated beast that he was in his prime. He finished ahead of Weird Al, whose only piece of decent form prior to the race (and since) was beating the overrated Time For Rupert. Long Run also beat Diamond Harry who really hasn't been the same since his injury, and Time For Rupert who I've already said is overrated. Next up he lost to a decling and almost 12-y-o Kauto Star in the King George, running along way clear of non-staying 2milers Captain Chris and Somersby, hardly an impressive run. In the Denman chase he laboured to a victory against Burton Port who was coming back off of a 2 year lay-off. He was giving BP 10lbs (as well as What a Friend who has also been woefully short of form since Long Run's Gold Cup and possibly needed the run that day after a 4 month break) but he didn't win like a 182 rated horse should. The Gold Cup was a disaster for Long Run. He finished 3rd amongst a clutch of handicappers when he should have won by 10L (if not more). I won't harp on about it because I'm sure you all remember, but it was a stinker of a run and, of all times, when the trainer was in the form of his life. This season Long Run was to put it all behind him and regain his crown. But no again he failed first time out, with The Giant Bolster behind but still close. Silvinaco Conti could be top class but he's far from proven against the very best of last years novices. Aintree seemed to me somewhat of an afterthought for Champion Court, who is 10lbs better round Cheltenham anyway so I wouldn't want to class him as Grade 1 class just yet, and if he's not then Long Run's put in another poor performance. Ergo, I think he's poor value although I admit he's not without chance in a bunch of likely non-stayers and overrated nags.
