Its a weak King George because most of the good horses in the race dont stay 3 miles, if you put 10 champion sprinters in a 1m2 race does it make it a strong race? (Another rhetorical question Dex, no need to start a 4 day debate) Cue Card, Finians Rainbow, and Riverside Theatre are good horses but they wont get home in a million years, if it was a 2 and half mile race I would say it looks strong, as a 3 mile race, serious contenders are pretty thin on the ground. Of the stayers, you cant have Captain Chris turning 17 lengths round with Long Run from Last year, Kauto Stone could be quite good, I could see him running into a place by default but im not sure hes quite up to giving Long Run a race yet, would have been stable second string. The Giant Bolster dosent have the pace and Grands Crus is off the back of a terrible run and a wind op, the Grands Crus of last year would probably be the only serious danger to Long Run but its hard to make a case for him bouncing back here. Wishful Thinking could be interesting if they run, hes a point winner, has plenty of speed and I could see him going well but obviously they have Captain Chris. He looked in good form at Cheltenham and I certainly wouldnt have him at 40/1 considering the amount of lines I have through the field. If Sir Des Champs runs he would become the main danger but I just cant see it after me and Dex established that it was a very, very, very rare occurrence that Mullins send one his serious Cheltenham horse outside of Ireland pre Cheltenham.
Some valid points MOG but I don't subscribe to the view that horses who are proven over 21f at Cheltenham won't get 24f at Kempton. This races history is littered with horses who couldn't stay the Gold Cup trip but were outstanding King George horses, One Man and Florida Pearl spring to mind and even the 2m champion Edredon Bleu has won this. The likes of Cue Card, Finians Rainbow and Riverside Theatre have every chance of seeing this trip out in my opinion. Captain Chris wasn't right last year, judging by his performance at Ascot a few weeks back it's possible they've sorted his chinks, he made too many mistakes last year for that run to be considered his true running, I'm backing that he'll go much closer this time....
Fair Dooze Grizzly, they are saying its going to be run on the softest ground for a decade, 3 miles is 3 miles, for my money Finians Rainbow and Cue Card havent a hope in hell of getting home, Riverside Theatre most likely of the 3 but Long Run kills him at 3 miles. Everything is just going in Long Runs favour, day by day, it gets better and better, I wouldnt waste time over complicating the race. The form horse by a distance, stamina is going to come into it on testing ground, its all one way traffic from my angle. Over the moon with 4/1
Colin Tizzard seemingly very bullish about Cue Card today, saying he did the best bit of work since he has been in training. Glad I took some of the 8's available with Paddy Power last week. If he can get into a good rhythm in front and put in a clean round of jumping I can see him putting it up to Long Run and forcing him into errors as we have seen in the past. If he stays the trip then he must have a great chance when you look at his novice form.
with conditions looking like it will become a test, I keep coming back to a horse by the name of Long Run. If only the dentist wasn't on his back.
As if by magic, Junior has received an entry. Surefire indication that it will be a slog, be amazed if he can get involved though
Disagree Oddy think it's very shrewd. Won a 3 mile race on heavy off of 157 LTO. He's not that far off. If the going is soft-heavy or heavier then in a race with 2 or 3 to come out and 2 or 3 non-stayers I think 40/1 e/w 3 places paid is very, very tempting.
I must say I had a little chuckle when I heard Junior was supplemented but the more I think about it the less ridiculous it seems. Will be very, very surprised if he is good enough to land the KG but given that this looks far from a vintage renewal in very testing conditions with a number of rivals in the field having doubts about the trip I can see the logic as he may snag a place. Wouldn't dream of backing him though.
I think Pipe had him cherry ripe on his debut George, I'm not sure he has much more to offer than 157 and would be surprised if that is good enough to place in a King George, despite the conditions.
However there's one I like more. Well two but indications are that Sir Des Champs probably won't run. His form behind Flemenstar is solid if we believe the Flemenstar hype (which most of us do) and 10/1 is far too big but for me that indicates that the Lexus is his perceived 1st target. Ergo, ruling him out there's one horse that I think is crying out to be backed at 33/1 and I'll explain why. Firstly, though, I'm talking about For Non Stop. I think this guy is screaming for a step up in trip that he's certainly bred for. He has strong form in the book. He was badly outpaced LTO over 2 miles 3f on heavy going before staying on and was nearest finish despite Captain Chris being driven out in receipt of 6lbs (which on that going is amplified). Captain Chris is a real 2mile-2mile 4 specialist and an Arkle winner. For Non Stop, who to my mind wants 3 miles, did fantastically well to finish as he did. He probably doesn't want it that heavy but at least we know he'll knuckle down and give it a go on the ground. 'Captain Chris was third in the King George' I hear you cry. Yes, yes he was. He outstayed Somersby (who's a dog away from Ascot) and Nacarat was the only other to finish. His race before, the first of this season, was one that sticks in the memory when effortlessly pulling clear of a decent field to score in the Old Roan by 23L. Cheltenham I forgive, maybe the ground was too good, maybe it was 1 run too many or maybe he just didn't handle the track. Either way he still ran 3rd in the Jewson which is not terrible. I think he could well have come on a fair bit since then (see Aintree) His run before, on free Friday at Newbury, was superb. Produced late he won the Grade 1 Betfair Novices Chase in the style of a horse who wants further. His run before that was also very good, outpaced but staying on against possibly the 2nd best 2mile chaser in training, Cue Card, over 2mile 2f. Cue Card was along way clear that day and found himself 7L ahead at the last. Despite being driven out by Joe Tizzard, the leader still relinqueshed 3 of those lengths in the run up to the line as a staying on For Non Stop was just beginning to get into his stride. The race before that he was outpaced over 2miles by another 3 miler, Al Ferof, before again doing all his best running right at the end of the race. The exceptionally talented Noel Fehily is always a plus and Nick Williams' form is promising too. I don't for a minute think he's the best horse in the race, Cue Card is, but whereas I have a suspicion that the likes of Cue Card, Menorah, Finians Rainbow, Captain Chris, Hunt Ball and Wishful Thinking will be up and down on the one spot at the 4f marker I think this guy will be starting to get going. I really don't think Long Run has any spectacular form in the book since his Gold Cup win, Kauto Star wasn't at his best last year (though it was fantastic what he achieved at his age). Long Run couldn't win the weakest Gold Cup in history and I'm not convinced that Silvianco Conti is even the best 3 miler in Nicholls' yard. Grand Crus has shocking form on soft ground. That leaves not many, SDC I've made a case for, Riverside Theatre is short enough, Kauto Stone likewise (and I think exposed as not quite top level). And that pretty much accounts for the field, Junior's worth a few shekels e/w at this stage because you know he'll a) Run b) Stay c) Act on the ground.
The yard had him laid out for the National off of 153. They know a thing or two about handicapping and you don't win that race if you're only a couple of pounds well in. I think he's capable of running to the low 160s and is over priced in a race where some will come out and about half the field may well not stay. I don't think he'll win though! If Synchronised can win a Gold Cup then Junior could definitely run a place, especially if we get more rain! Just my two cents though and heck I'm crazy.
I really want to see Junior in the Gold Cup though. He wants every yard of the trip, acts at the course and can't really go handicapping off the mark. If Synchronised can win the Gold Cup...
Remember the thing with Sir Des Champs is that he is 5.7 for the Lexus. Almost 5/1 behind Flemenstar for a horse who would improve for the trip, to be better for reappearance. I think he is weak for the Lexus and that he would be bigger for the KG on the Exchanges if they were definitely leaning towards the Lexus. A hard race against Flemenstar and a host of good stayers might not be what he needs until March. I think Willie senses an opportunity in the King George but he will need to convince Michael O'Leary.
Ive said it about 50 times already but id be very surprised if Sir Des Champs ran in the King George, and with the rain forecast, a slog in the mud with Long Run isnt going to be any easier than the Lexus. Flemenstar still has to prove his stamina and I think they will want to have another crack at him over the longer trip. Plus Leopardstown will suit Sir Des Champs more than Kempton, at least imo anyway. Id say hes a 1/5 chance to run in the Lexus, rather than the even money that is being suggested by some reports, but even the master gets it wrong sometimes, well see what happens. The Lexus market is irrelevant at this stage, under 6k in it.
With the ground conditions almost certainly to be well in his favour I've a sneaky feeling that Nicholls' other Kauto might just prevail in this
